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geddyweather

June 10 Severe Threat

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Quote

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 277  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
245 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2020  
 
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF  
SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA  
EXTREME NORTHERN KENTUCKY  
MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO  
LAKE ERIE  
 
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 245 PM  
UNTIL 1000 PM EDT.  
 
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...  
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75  
MPH LIKELY  
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE  
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE  
 
SUMMARY...A BROKEN BAND OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS INDIANA IS EXPECTED  
TO SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH ADDITIONAL STORM  
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY INTO OHIO. EVENTUAL UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A MORE  
SOLID SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING. THE STORM  
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS AND  
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS, SOME SIGNIFICANT. A  
TORNADO OR TWO AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH  
THE STRONGER STORMS.  
 
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60  
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES EAST NORTHEAST  
OF TOLEDO OH TO 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CINCINNATI OH. FOR A COMPLETE  
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE  
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE  
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.  
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING  
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE  
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE  
TORNADOES.  
 

 

ww0277_overview.gif

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May just get "lucky" wrt hail. Some west, and now some north..

Quote
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
228 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BELLEVUE                42.45N 85.01W
06/10/2020                   EATON              MI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT AND A TRAINED SPOTTER REPORT
            SIGNIFICANT TREE DAMAGE FROM BELLEVUE TO
            OLIVET. TREES AND WIRES ARE DOWN. THERE ARE
            TREES DOWN ALONG M-78 BETWEEN BELLEVUE AND
            OLIVET. THERE IS A CITIZEN REPORT OF A
            POSSIBLE TORNADO, WHICH IS UNCONFIRMED AT
            THIS TIME.

 

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7 minutes ago, laferri2 said:

This system is giving me flashbacks to all the systems that Detroit has whiffed on in the last 10 years.

i know right? even tho things look good i keep praying everything holds true. i have been wanting some big boomers for several years now

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2 minutes ago, Solidsting said:

i know right? even tho things look good i keep praying everything holds true. i have been wanting some big boomers for several years now

Thunder's been pretty minimal with these cells tho. Not to be a buzzkill. Certainly worthy of the severe warnings but winds/hail are the bigger story it seems.

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1 minute ago, RogueWaves said:

Thunder's been pretty minimal with these cells tho. Not to be a buzzkill. Certainly worthy of the severe warnings but winds/hail are the bigger story it seems.

ahh the wind is fine by me. the area around metro Detroit just continues to get even more unstable. people on the weather channel even commented on that. nothing but hot sun and a occasional cloud where im at

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Watch out Detroit...

mcd0900.gif

   Mesoscale Discussion 0900
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0203 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020

   Areas affected...southeast lower Michigan

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 274...276...

   Valid 101903Z - 102030Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 274, 276
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Numerous thunderstorms have coalesced into a loosely
   organized squall line across portions of northeast Indiana and
   southeast Lower Michigan. A focused corridor for damaging wind gusts
   may develop as storms intensify from Kalamazoo, east-northeast
   toward Detroit.

   DISCUSSION...A line of quasi discrete supercells have begun merging
   into a more linear organization across portions of northeast Indiana
   and southern half of Lower Michigan over the last hour. Several
   reports of wind damage have been received as outflow has become more
   coherent and better organized. The diagonal NE/SW orientation of the
   convective line lies along a corridor of backed mid and upper-level
   flow observed from the 18z Detroit special sounding. The orientation
   of the upper-level flow will likely support continued downdraft
   development and outflow aggregations given seeding from anvil
   precipitation being advected over downstream convection across
   portions of far northeast Indiana into southeast Lower Michigan. The
   main threat with storms will be damaging winds given 1200-1400 J/kg
   of DCAPE and strong mid-level flow of 50 to 60 kt. Large hail will
   be possible given MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg supporting robust deep
   updrafts. However, the risk appears limited due to weaker lapse
   rates of 6 to 7 C/km and the predominately linear storm mode. The
   most favored corridor for severe wind will be with the stronger
   cells merging into southern Michigan toward Detroit. A few
   significant wind gusts will be possible with any stronger bowing
   structures that can develop.

   ..Lyons/Thompson.. 06/10/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   42648519 43208407 43788343 43908295 43668264 42728254
               42418300 41768352 41818523 42048528 42548522 42648519 

 

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7 minutes ago, Solidsting said:

i know right? even tho things look good i keep praying everything holds true. i have been wanting some big boomers for several years now

I just got my first thunderstorm of the year this morning, it was decent with tropical rains but not severe. I don't like the look the HRRR is giving for MBY, looks like I'm going to get whiffed this evening followed by the typical hours of moderate rain that follow. I was waiting for some descrete cells ahead of the outflow but then the CAMs backed off that...

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87F dropped to 65F and some of the highest gusts I've seen on the airport unit. (iirc May of 2011 hit 70 mph)

It's official:

Quote
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
303 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SSE MARSHALL          42.25N 84.95W
06/10/2020  M60 MPH          CALHOUN            MI   ASOS

            MEASURED AT MARSHALL BROOKS FIELD ARPT.

 

20200610 KRMY 3pm Obs.PNG

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Severe Thunderstorm Warning
MIC093-161-102030-
/O.NEW.KDTX.SV.W.0024.200610T1921Z-200610T2030Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
321 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Livingston County in southeastern Michigan...
  Washtenaw County in southeastern Michigan...

* Until 430 PM EDT.

* At 320 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from near Perry to 6 miles southwest of Vandercook Lake,
  moving northeast at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to
           mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

* Severe thunderstorms will be near...
  Fowlerville around 325 PM EDT.
  Cohoctah around 335 PM EDT.
  Chelsea around 400 PM EDT.
  Gregory around 405 PM EDT.
  Dexter around 410 PM EDT.
  Pinckney around 415 PM EDT.
  Hamburg around 420 PM EDT.
  Whitmore Lake around 425 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include
Pittsfield Township, Whittaker, Plainfield, Hudson Mills Metropark,
Island Lake State Recreation Area, Bridgewater, Delhi Mills, Pleasant
Lake, Barton Hills and Pinckney State Recreation Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

This is a DANGEROUS SITUATION. These storms are producing widespread
wind damage across southern Lower Michigan.

SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from
windows! Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may
lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4278 8369 4243 8366 4243 8355 4209 8354
      4208 8413 4278 8416
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 234DEG 35KT 4275 8419 4213 8449

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...70MPH

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20 minutes ago, Torchageddon said:

I just got my first thunderstorm of the year this morning, it was decent with tropical rains but not severe. I don't like the look the HRRR is giving for MBY, looks like I'm going to get whiffed this evening followed by the typical hours of moderate rain that follow. I was waiting for some descrete cells ahead of the outflow but then the CAMs backed off that...

yeah last night the cams went off. even had PDS TOR in my area i was very suprised. but i figured they would favor a more linear mode anyways just knowing how the weather up here is

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23 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Watch out Detroit...

mcd0900.gif

   Mesoscale Discussion 0900
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0203 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020

   Areas affected...southeast lower Michigan

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 274...276...

   Valid 101903Z - 102030Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 274, 276
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Numerous thunderstorms have coalesced into a loosely
   organized squall line across portions of northeast Indiana and
   southeast Lower Michigan. A focused corridor for damaging wind gusts
   may develop as storms intensify from Kalamazoo, east-northeast
   toward Detroit.

   DISCUSSION...A line of quasi discrete supercells have begun merging
   into a more linear organization across portions of northeast Indiana
   and southern half of Lower Michigan over the last hour. Several
   reports of wind damage have been received as outflow has become more
   coherent and better organized. The diagonal NE/SW orientation of the
   convective line lies along a corridor of backed mid and upper-level
   flow observed from the 18z Detroit special sounding. The orientation
   of the upper-level flow will likely support continued downdraft
   development and outflow aggregations given seeding from anvil
   precipitation being advected over downstream convection across
   portions of far northeast Indiana into southeast Lower Michigan. The
   main threat with storms will be damaging winds given 1200-1400 J/kg
   of DCAPE and strong mid-level flow of 50 to 60 kt. Large hail will
   be possible given MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg supporting robust deep
   updrafts. However, the risk appears limited due to weaker lapse
   rates of 6 to 7 C/km and the predominately linear storm mode. The
   most favored corridor for severe wind will be with the stronger
   cells merging into southern Michigan toward Detroit. A few
   significant wind gusts will be possible with any stronger bowing
   structures that can develop.

   ..Lyons/Thompson.. 06/10/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   42648519 43208407 43788343 43908295 43668264 42728254
               42418300 41768352 41818523 42048528 42548522 42648519 

 

on the name note it mentions how lapse rates are lowering. i dont like that lol. i want the worst to come out

 

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30 minutes ago, Chinook said:

It kind of looks like a supercell is developing near Defiance, OH. Weak rotation at this time.

This cell produced 2" hail at Bryan, OH.  That's gotta shred some soybeans.

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This report's near GR

Quote
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
341 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1205 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSE GRANDVILLE        42.88N 85.74W
06/10/2020                   KENT               MI   PUBLIC

            ROOF DAMAGE, NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES NEAR
            IVANREST AND 44TH STREET. GUST MEASURED FROM
            HOME WEATHER STATION OF 75 MPH.

 

Stepped outside to put my planter pots upright (2 of 3 were flipped) and noticed heavy tree damage at every neighbor's place surrounding mine. Looks like limbs at least up to 6" diameter. One on my south neighbor's SUV and his garage door severely blown inward. Neighbor just north I couldn't see him behind a massive chunk of tree laying in his front yard, but could hear the chainsaw and see movement. Also, tons of sirens blaring and DPW vehicles scurrying around tells me there's some pretty widespread issues. Oh, and in my shorts and flops felt hot about 90 min's ago and now the temps shocking in the other direction. Nothing dull about today's wx..

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Quote
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
347 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0242 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SW MARSHALL           42.24N 84.99W
06/10/2020                   CALHOUN            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE DAMAGE ON I-69 SOUTH OF MARSHALL.

 

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1 minute ago, Powerball said:

The squall line's progression eastward looks to have slowed to a crawl.

In the mean time, now there are some nice supercells popping up along the I-75 corridor as the cap weakens.

im not far from there so im gonna head out. that line east looks slow moving. im looking at the storms at the indiana ohio border to hit where i live

 

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Does anyone have footage from the Walker area around noon?  My wife said it was frightening.  The building was shaking and things were flying through the air.  I was expecting most of the severe action to miss GRR to the southeast, but there was an early MCV feature that developed from pre-dawn convection over northern Illinois / southern Lake Michigan.  It gave some of the early convection that rolled in off Lake Michigan a real strong punch and also took it way farther north and west than I expected.

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1 hour ago, Solidsting said:

yeah last night the cams went off. even had PDS TOR in my area i was very suprised. but i figured they would favor a more linear mode anyways just knowing how the weather up here is

It seems like the backed winds aloft were a problem most places.  Only a hard right-mover could really begin to rotate, and it never really happened.  There were lots of brief little couplets embedded in the convection, but they never really lasted long.  In Michigan, good discrete supercell structure with tornado potential only really seems to happen with a warm front in the area or in response to some kind of outflow boundary / lake-breeze interaction.    With such a strong low level winds and strongly mixed environment there wasn't much in the way of boundaries for storms to latch onto.  They just moved with the flow, more north than east, which wasn't really ideal.  I know it's happened in the past, but it just seems really hard to get the proper type of hodograph for widespread supercells in Michigan.  Probably a good thing.

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14 minutes ago, frostfern said:

It seems like the backed winds aloft were a problem most places.  Only a hard right-mover could really begin to rotate, and it never really happened.  There were lots of brief little couplets embedded in the convection, but they never really lasted long.  In Michigan, good discrete supercell structure with tornado potential only really seems to happen with a warm front in the area or in response to some kind of outflow boundary / lake-breeze interaction.    With such a strong low level winds and strongly mixed environment there wasn't much in the way of boundaries for storms to latch onto.  They just moved with the flow, more north than east, which wasn't really ideal.  I know it's happened in the past, but it just seems really hard to get the proper type of hodograph for widespread supercells in Michigan.  Probably a good thing.

Metro Detroit in particular has been ridiculously lean the last 10 years. I can count on one hand the number of storms I've seen with more than a couple lightning strikes since I moved to Macomb County in 2010. It gets really irritating hearing thunder from miles away as all the storms dance around Wayne and Macomb counties. 

I can't count the number of times I've watched my zip code ride a slot in between storm cells to stay dry. 

 

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Saw my neighbors outside taking pic's so I went over to look. They actually had an entire tree (16+") come down along with parts of other close trees. Trashed their garage badly. Just moved in last October. Not so great a welcome wagon gift from nature for them. On the upside, they may just get a new garage out of the deal.

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18 minutes ago, frostfern said:

It seems like the backed winds aloft were a problem most places.  Only a hard right-mover could really begin to rotate, and it never really happened.  There were lots of brief little couplets embedded in the convection, but they never really lasted long.  In Michigan, good discrete supercell structure with tornado potential only really seems to happen with a warm front in the area or in response to some kind of outflow boundary / lake-breeze interaction.    With such a strong low level winds and strongly mixed environment there wasn't much in the way of boundaries for storms to latch onto.  They just moved with the flow, more north than east, which wasn't really ideal.  I know it's happened in the past, but it just seems really hard to get the proper type of hodograph for widespread supercells in Michigan.  Probably a good thing.

50s/60s/70s had ZERO problems producing high-end tors. Always wondered what the key ingredient was back then that allowed for such a different outcome? It's like this region was a different world when I was young.

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9 minutes ago, laferri2 said:

Metro Detroit in particular has been ridiculously lean the last 10 years. I can count on one hand the number of storms I've seen with more than a couple lightning strikes since I moved to Macomb County in 2010. It gets really irritating hearing thunder from miles away as all the storms dance around Wayne and Macomb counties. 

I can't count the number of times I've watched my zip code ride a slot in between storm cells to stay dry. 

 

I think that's your issue. Macomb's notorious for down-sloping from the higher elevations to the west. Takes a lot of punch out of winter storms, and likely has a similar effect on severe

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