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Rtd208

E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2020 OBS Thread

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2 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

Thinking about heading to OCNJ tonight with my 14 yr old son.  He is getting the itch like me.

It's a full moon today with the highest of normal tides, so that coast is probably going to see some pretty good flooding (at least until the off-shore winds/blow-out tides start happening as the storm moves further NE).

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2 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

It's a full moon today with the highest of normal tides, so that coast is probably going to see some pretty good flooding (at least until the off-shore winds/blow-out tides start happening as the storm moves further NE).

Our place is in a good spot.  Along the bay, but at an area that rarely ever sees flooding.  Guessing the last time it did was during Sandy.

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28 minutes ago, jwilson said:

Having to drive into Philly this week.  I was originally planning tomorrow morning, but looks like I should re-think that option and do it tonight, instead.

I've checked the models, and the GFS is faster than most of the others (Euro, CMC, etc).  That said, the Hurricane models themselves don't look particularly appealing during the morning hours tomorrow.  Seems between 10 and 3 could be the peak, give or take.

If you left late tomorrow morning you'd probably miss the worst (best) of it, guessing it's about a six hour drive? Of course if you want to experience it, doing it tonight is the way to go!

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3 hours ago, KamuSnow said:

If you left late tomorrow morning you'd probably miss the worst (best) of it, guessing it's about a six hour drive? Of course if you want to experience it, doing it tonight is the way to go!

3-4" rain and winds to 50mph even if it was snow it's meh

 

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21 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

Our place is in a good spot.  Along the bay, but at an area that rarely ever sees flooding.  Guessing the last time it did was during Sandy.

I know Sandy is verboten on AmericanWx (:lol:) but Hurricane Irene from 2011 seems to have had a similar (although further east) track as Isaias, at least at our latitude.  Will have to see if Isaias actually does strengthen to a hurricane before landfalling in SC somewhere.

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2 hours ago, KamuSnow said:

30" to 40" of snow with 50mph winds is meh? Your bar is pretty high, lol.

yeah it would take 30-40", problem with getting old is you have to keep raising the bar lol

 

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8 hours ago, Plokoon111 said:

Not looking forward to moving all my drum / recording equipment out of the basement. The Neshaminy creek will be angry. 6 inches? That is enough for bad flooding. 

I'm a big music guy and that would suck very badly if damaged. Thankfully I took a couple things out of basement (10 minutes?) and the rest I don't care about...

90F / DP 65

9.jpg

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31 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

I'm a big music guy and that would suck very badly if damaged. Thankfully I took a couple things out of basement (10 minutes?) and the rest I don't care about...

90F / DP 65

9.jpg

Looking at Irene and Floyd, those were the storms where the water came up into the basement. I believe Irene was 8 inches for Croydon area. As long as it doesn't hit that, I'm good hopefully. 

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30 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

OT but does anyone live in Easton , PA?

How is the area ? Might be going there to the Crayon Factory.

Basically a grungy cityish area Allentown, Bethlehem& Easton. But reccomend Wert's restaurant in Allentown with great food and worlds best burgers. 

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25 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Got the trash cans in so I don't look like a idiot chasing them down the street...

This blob is moving up. 89F / DP 65

 

b.jpg

Yeah have been watching that!  It's been clouding over here so the temps have been dropping.  Down to 86 but with increased dp - up to 68 so far.

The latest Tropical Storm Warning from Mt. Holly (plus 5 pm cone) -

Quote

Tropical Storm Warning

Isaias Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 27
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ  AL092020
517 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

PAZ071-040600-
/O.CON.KPHI.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Philadelphia-
517 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Philadelphia

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 40-50 mph with gusts to 75 mph
        - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Tuesday morning
          until Tuesday evening

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 58
      to 73 mph
        - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical
          storm force.
        - PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property
          should be completed as soon as possible. Prepare for
          significant wind damage.
        - ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
        - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with
          damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few
          buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door
          failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored.
          Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles.
        - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
          numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
          fences and roadway signs blown over.
        - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within
          urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways,
          and access routes impassable.
        - Scattered power and communications outages, but more
          prevalent in areas with above ground lines.

* STORM SURGE
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Localized storm surge possible
        - Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for up to 2 feet
          above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
        - Window of concern: through early Wednesday morning

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm
      surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground
        - The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Plan for storm surge flooding greater than 1 foot
          above ground.
        - PREPARE: Complete preparations for storm surge flooding,
          especially in low-lying vulnerable areas, before conditions
          become unsafe.
        - ACT: Leave immediately if evacuation orders are given for
          your area.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - Localized inundation is possible with storm surge flooding
          mainly along tidal creeks and rivers and in low-lying spots.
        - Sections of near-river roads and parking lots could become
          overspread with surge water. Dangerous driving conditions
          are possible in places where surge water covers the road.

* FLOODING RAIN
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flash Flood Watch is in effect
        - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 3-6 inches, with locally
          higher amounts

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for major
      flooding rain
        - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
          the previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
          major flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are
          likely.
        - PREPARE: Strongly consider protective actions, especially
          if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding.
        - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
          action will likely result in serious injury or loss of life.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
        - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and
          rescues.
        - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
          multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos,
          and ditches may become dangerous rivers. In mountain areas,
          destructive runoff may run quickly down valleys while
          increasing susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides.
          Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed.
        - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
          communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or
          washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover
          escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of
          moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions
          become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some
          weakened or washed out.

* TORNADO
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few
      tornadoes
        - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a
          few tornadoes.
        - PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to
          tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before
          hazardous weather arrives.
        - ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter
          quickly.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
          execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
        - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
          power and communications disruptions.
        - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
          chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
          overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
          shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
          off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
    - http://oem.readyphiladelphia.org

$$

MPS

 

5pm-152416_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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Just now, RedSky said:

Having either radar delusions or that is some serious precursor rain building to our south.

 

Yep....and I think the Berks/ NW area will get drilled again.

 

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Updated Hurricane Local Statement -

Quote

Hurricane Local Statement

Tropical Storm Isaias Local Statement Advisory Number 27
DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ070-071-101>106-040700-

Tropical Storm Isaias Local Statement Advisory Number 27
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ  AL092020
657 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

This product covers NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND

**Tropical Storm Isaias Will Impact the Area Tuesday morning through
Tuesday night**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Atlantic, Atlantic
      Coastal Cape May, Camden, Cape May, Caroline, Cecil, Coastal
      Atlantic, Coastal Ocean, Cumberland, Delaware, Delaware
      Beaches, Eastern Chester, Eastern Monmouth, Eastern Montgomery,
      Gloucester, Hunterdon, Inland Sussex, Kent, Kent MD, Lower
      Bucks, Mercer, Middlesex, Morris, New Castle, Northwestern
      Burlington, Ocean, Philadelphia, Queen Annes, Salem, Somerset,
      Southeastern Burlington, Sussex, Talbot, Upper Bucks, Warren,
      Western Chester, Western Monmouth, and Western Montgomery

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 580 miles south-southwest of Atlantic City NJ or about
      540 miles south-southwest of Dover DE
    - 32.0N 79.4W
    - Storm Intensity 70 mph
    - Movement North-northeast or 15 degrees at 16 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Storm Isaias is currently located just offshore of the
southeast Georgia coast and will continue northward along the East
Coast, likely moving inland over the Carolinas this evening. Isaias
will approach Delmarva by late tonight and pass through the region on
Tuesday. Impacts will diminish Tuesday night.

The main threats with this system are heavy rainfall resulting in
widespread flash flooding as well as some river flooding, as well as
strong and damaging winds, especially near the coast. In addition,
minor to potentially moderate coastal flooding, and dangerous marine
conditions will occur.

Four to six inches of rain with locally higher amounts will result in
flash flooding. Strong winds along the New Jersey and Delaware coasts
with wind gusts of 65 to 75 mph are possible, and wind gusts inland
will range from 55 to 65 mph. Secondary threats include minor to
locally moderate coastal flooding, especially in Chesapeake Bay, as
well as the potential for isolated tornadoes. Dangerous rip currents
and 7 to 15 foot seas are also expected over the waters.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across Delmarva, western New Jersey, and southeast
Pennsylvania. Potential impacts include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
      multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and
      ditches may become dangerous rivers. In mountain areas,
      destructive runoff may run quickly down valleys while
      increasing susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides. Flood
      control systems and barriers may become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
      Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
      underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
      Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible
significant impacts across coastal New Jersey and Delaware.

* WIND:
Protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts
across New Jersey, northern Delmarva, and much of southeastern
Pennsylvania. Potential impacts in this area
include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.

Also, protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across portions of eastern central Pennsylvania.

* SURGE:
Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts
across along Delaware Bay, the tidal Delaware River, northeastern
Chesapeake Bay, and the Atlantic coasts of New Jersey and Delaware. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
      immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
      farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
    - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread
      with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where
      surge water covers the road.
    - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly
      in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
    - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
      and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHEAST MARYLAND. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

If heading to a community shelter, become familiar with the shelter
rules before arrival, especially if you have special needs or have
pets. Take essential items with you from your Emergency Supplies Kit.

Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles
can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide
poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly
ventilated area.

It is important to remain calm, informed, and focused during an
emergency. Be patient and helpful with those you encounter.

Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone
area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded
roadway. Remember, turn around don`t drown!

If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter
quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not
prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter
options.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of
strong winds or flooding.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Mount Holly NJ around 11 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

Staarmann

Temp is down to 82 here and it's overcast. 

COD-GOES-East-meso-meso1.truecolor.20200803.231125-over=map-bars-truecolor-08032020.gif

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2 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Another pop-up just suddenly appeared over me. lol

radar11-08032020.png

They are really popping up quick. One minute I check the radar and nothing....2 minutes later I see a red cell.

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