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Tallis Rockwell

Severe Weather for 4/19-4/23

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Impressed with the amount of supercells that popped up across OK this evening, even some exhibiting weak rotation... Not exactly how I anticipated the evening would go.

Considered driving the 7/8 hours down to the TX panhandle today, but thought CAPE, etc. looked too marginal to warrant that.

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
813 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2020  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A  
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHERN ROGER MILLS COUNTY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...  
  WEST CENTRAL CUSTER COUNTY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...  
  NORTHEASTERN BECKHAM COUNTY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...  
  
* UNTIL 915 PM CDT.  
  
* AT 813 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES EAST OF  
  REYDON, MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TWO INCH HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
  
  IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES. EXPECT   
           CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO   
           MOBILE HOMES, ROOFS, AND OUTBUILDINGS.  
  
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
  CHEYENNE, HAMMON, REYDON, STRONG CITY, MOOREWOOD, ROLL, BERLIN AND  
  DEMPSEY.  

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Latest forecast discussion from FWD mentions CAPE values of 3 to 4,000 over the metroplex tomorrow. Very conditional setup but that's a hell of a lot of instability to work with

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16 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

Latest forecast discussion from FWD mentions CAPE values of 3 to 4,000 over the metroplex tomorrow. Very conditional setup but that's a hell of a lot of instability to work with

00z HRRR shows 5,000 uncapped at 21z but doesn’t show any convection in the area, despite really pulling back on coverage in the first round earlier in the day.

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
851 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2020  
  
OKC009-039-129-149-220230-  
/O.CON.KOUN.SV.W.0091.000000T0000Z-200422T0230Z/  
WASHITA OK-ROGER MILLS OK-CUSTER OK-BECKHAM OK-  
851 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2020  
  
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT  
FOR WESTERN WASHITA...SOUTHEASTERN ROGER MILLS...SOUTHWESTERN CUSTER  
AND NORTHEASTERN BECKHAM COUNTIES...  
  
AT 851 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHWEST   
OF ELK CITY, MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THE LARGEST HAIL IS   
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE ELK CITY AREA TOWARD CANUTE AND BURNS FLAT.  
  
HAZARD...TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS.  
  
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
  
IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL   
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES. EXPECT   
         CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO   
         MOBILE HOMES, ROOFS, AND OUTBUILDINGS.  
  
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
ELK CITY, CLINTON, BURNS FLAT, DILL CITY, CANUTE, FOSS, FOSS  
RESERVOIR, STAFFORD AND BERLIN.  

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00z RAP and NAM indicate a substantial severe weather event tomorrow afternoon and evening across S OK and N TX... Given low-level moisture, instability, and wind profiles in forecast soundings am very concerned about the possibility of strong tornadoes.

 

00z hi-res guidance was a bit all over the place with regard to convective evolution INVOF the dryline though... BUT the environment along and east of the dryline looks very impressive -- along with minimal to no CINH, throwing into question the models.

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27 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Given low-level moisture, instability, and wind profiles in forecast soundings am very concerned about the possibility of strong tornadoes.

Great time to be living in a 2nd floor apartment and the one set of downstairs neighbors you knew have moved out. If I get hit by a tornado I'm fighting God

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Yes it could be interesting tomorrow. My Target Triangle of interest is between Purcell, Madill, and McAlester, OK. Could be some nasty storms in this area as we go into the evening.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
1128 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2020  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  EAST CENTRAL COMANCHE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...  
  SOUTHWESTERN GRADY COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...  
  NORTHWESTERN STEPHENS COUNTY IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...  
  
* UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.  
      
* AT 1127 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
  TORNADO WAS LOCATED 4 MILES EAST OF STERLING, MOVING EAST AT 20  
  MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO AND TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
  
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
  MARLOW, RUSH SPRINGS, BRAY AND STERLING.   

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1 hour ago, jojo762 said:

00z RAP and NAM indicate a substantial severe weather event tomorrow afternoon and evening across S OK and N TX... Given low-level moisture, instability, and wind profiles in forecast soundings am very concerned about the possibility of strong tornadoes.

 

00z hi-res guidance was a bit all over the place with regard to convective evolution INVOF the dryline though... BUT the environment along and east of the dryline looks very impressive -- along with minimal to no CINH, throwing into question the models.

What about for DFW metro?

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Keep abreast of weather for the metro later today.  It all depends on whether or not storms initially form to the west of you.  The environmental parameters are indicative of the possibility of strong tornadoes.

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Yeah with the new outlook that came out, wording sounds like they think storms will form east of us now... Haven't been able to load the graphic nor the outlook text yet though

Edit: Just saw the graphics you posted

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6 hours ago, TexMexWx said:

Yeah, if storms initiate right off/near the dryline around the mid-afternoon maybe, we could be in for a wild ride.

My parents, brother and many friends all live in Wills Point (VZ County). I was up there helping my mom recover from surgery during the April 2017 tornadoes and that was scary enough to last me a lifetime. I have never seen skies look like that!!

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If storms do move into the Metroplex, I'd be willing to place a nice wager on a big hailer moving through Collin County. 

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48 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

Bit on the cloudy side this morning. Wonder how fast things will clear out? 

Yeah, all of the clouds are going to put a damper on things, IMO. Already seeing junk showers from I-35 east. Need that to move out and see some sun ASAP.

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Just now, cstrunk said:

Yeah, all of the clouds are going to put a damper on things, IMO. Already seeing junk showers from I-35 east. Need that to move out and see some sun ASAP.

Funny considering the concern about capping...

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will be watching the storms over SE Texas to see if they can become surface based above any shallow inversion after noon, if they can lots of low level shear in LLJ axis

 

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20 minutes ago, cstrunk said:

Yeah, all of the clouds are going to put a damper on things, IMO. Already seeing junk showers from I-35 east. Need that to move out and see some sun ASAP.

I don’t think it will be much of an issue. Instability picks up drastically as the dryline approaches this afternoon. That doesn’t mean storms are guaranteed to fire, but any issues won’t be instability driven.

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I'm observing the models right now and the 14z HRRR shows a cell forming between 1-2 PM and tracking through the northern DFW metro through about 5 PM, within a decent-looking environment. The 12z 3km NAM shows a storm as well through the center of the metro, but more around 4-7 PM. Those two are probably the more ominous of the convection-allowing models, but of course one shouldn't get caught up in the exact placement of the storms.

 

I probably should've looked more at other areas cause on the HRRR at least, storms over SE TX and parts of OK looked interesting as well for a period of time.

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15 minutes ago, TexMexWx said:

I'm observing the models right now and the 14z HRRR shows a cell forming between 1-2 PM and tracking through the northern DFW metro through about 5 PM, within a decent-looking environment. The 12z 3km NAM shows a storm as well through the center of the metro, but more around 4-7 PM. Those two are probably the more ominous of the convection-allowing models, but of course one shouldn't get caught up in the exact placement of the storms.

 

I probably should've looked more at other areas cause on the HRRR at least, storms over SE TX and parts of OK looked interesting as well.

I agree, DFW is definitely in a precarious position this afternoon.

28 minutes ago, Chreeyiss said:

I don’t think it will be much of an issue. Instability picks up drastically as the dryline approaches this afternoon. That doesn’t mean storms are guaranteed to fire, but any issues won’t be instability driven.

Maybe I should have clarified, I have more of a IMBY bias here in Longview. I do think there is a greater threat in an area bounded by DFW, Sulpher Springs TX, Pauls Valley OK, and McAlester OK. SE TX may also be interesting. Not sure that the greater threat will extend eastwards towards NW LA as per SPC. Not to say there won't be severe storms farther east, as I'm sure there will be.

As always, I'm sure this could/will change...

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0436  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1038 AM CDT WED APR 22 2020  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA  
  
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY   
  
VALID 221538Z - 221745Z  
  
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT  
  
SUMMARY...CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN  
COVERAGE, EVENTUALLY POSING A RISK OF ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR  
PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.  
  
DISCUSSION...SATELLITE/LIGHTNING IMAGERY INDICATES A CONTINUED  
INCREASE IN CONVECTION NEAR THE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO, TEXAS AREAS IN  
CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH OTHER RADAR ECHOES NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW  
NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR TYLER.  POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT  
THESE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY VERY  
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (AROUND 8.5 C/KM) AND STRONG SHEAR IN  
THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER, SUGGESTIVE OF AN ELEVATED SUPERCELL THREAT  
WITH HAIL (PERHAPS SIGNIFICANT).  AS THE REGION IS UNDER THE  
GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS, THE  
EXPECTATION IS THAT THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SPATIALLY  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL OF THE  
LATEST CAMS.  
  
OVER TIME, THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THESE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY  
BECOME SURFACE BASED - ESPECIALLY WITH EASTWARD EXTENT WHERE MODEST  
LOW-LEVEL HEATING (THROUGH ADVECTION AND INSOLATION) WILL OCCUR  
AMIDST LOW 70S F DEWPOINTS.  VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES  
AND FAVORABLE (CELLULAR) STORM MODE WILL ALSO SUPPORT A TORNADO/WIND  
THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.  A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED  
OUT WITH ANY SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION GIVEN EXPECTED 250-500 M2/S2  
0-3KM SRH VALUES.  
  
CONVECTIVE TRENDS INDICATE THAT A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED  
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.  
  

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Goes right up to the DFW Metro but it's a toss-up if the watch will actually include Dallas county, either way DFW itself would be on the edge of THIS watch

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Question: If these storms do form in SE TX, would that limit the moisture/instability that can go up towards DFW and southern OK?

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 133  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1055 AM CDT WED APR 22 2020  
  
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF   
  WESTERN LOUISIANA  
  EAST TEXAS  
  
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1055 AM  
  UNTIL 500 PM CDT.  
  
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...  
  A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE  
  WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2  
    INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY  
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY  
  
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND SPREAD  
EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THROUGH THE DAY, WITH A FEW SEVERE  
STORMS LIKELY.  THE STRONGEST CELLS WILL POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL,  
DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW TORNADOES.  

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