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Chicago Storm

Coronavirus

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8 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Wouldn't it be a godsend if we peak sometime soon.  Have to wait and see.  Even if so, I think we may be on a horrendous plateau with this thing due to getting "held up" by the holiday gatherings and, unlike spring, there are several months of more favorable transmission conditions (cold, dry weather) left to get through.

Some of the data this week (I know The holiday will mess up the reporting some) might tell us if the abnormal warm spell was a factor in reducing transmission. Am looking at states like Iowa in particular, where their 7-day average dropped starting November 16 with no meaningful restrictions put in place to affect numbers. That is about 13 days after the warm up started, which is about the time lag for infection>symptoms>tested>results. If their numbers stabilize or rise this week along with some other states in the area, it would be strong evidence of that. If they continue to fall then other factors are at work.

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15 hours ago, mattb65 said:

This site which previously modeled out to the future has launched a new project trying to model backwards to answer the question you are looking into above.

https://covid19-projections.com/

Their best estimate is 48M total infections but a range from 32M to 73M

Some pretty impressive/sad maps showing how widespread it has become in many of the midwest states while other states that put in measures to contain the thing - Hawaii, NH, VT, ME, CA, WA, OR have fared much better.

Nice. This estimates look much more reasonable imo than his previous model estimates. His previous model had the summer wave like double the size of the spring wave which just didn't seem reasonable and wasn't consistent with the CDC antibody studies. I still might peg the summer wave a bit smaller than he does. I'm not sure equal size makes sense. 

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Don't know how many people here saw this, but about a week ago there was a study from UT Southwestern that showed that 85% of hospitalized Covid-19 patients under the age of 50 in the US are either overweight or obese...

 

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-11-overweight-obese-younger-people-greater.html

 

For awhile the CDC has been talking about how much worse Covid-19 is for overweight individuals, but this study shows that it's especially important for younger folks. The protective effect of being young is completely lost if you're overweight or obese. It's VERY important to get this message out there. Changing to a healthier diet and exercising a lot can mean the difference between being a mild case or ending up in the hospital and at risk of death.

 

We know the United States has a terrible obesity epidemic. A staggering three quarters of Americans are either overweight or obese. This is a big reason why the pandemic has been much worse in the United States than most other countries. The other big reason, of course, is our idiot President encouraging his followers to not take the virus seriously and not wear masks.

 

But back to the overweight/obesity issue. Imagine how many less hospitalizations and deaths we'd have if the majority of people kept their weight down down through exercise and better diet. We know this virus preys upon overweight people. I think so many health experts in this country have been doing a bad job getting the message out there that HEALTH (diet and exercise to achieve normal weight and reduce underlying health conditions like hypertension, heart disease and diabetes) is absolutely critical in fighting back against this pandemic. Of course mask wearing and social distancing is critical, but I feel that getting into good shape to reduce the chance of having a severe problem if you catch the virus is just as important. Very important to get this message out there.

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29 minutes ago, South Shore Slop said:

If 75% of the population is overweight, then if all things were equal, 75% of hospitalizations would consist of overweight patients. So that 85% figure isn't that much of an outlier...

The exact number for the US population being overweight is 72%. If you look at this study, 85% of hospitalized people under 50 were overweight compared to 54% of people over age 70. The number is much lower for older people because many older people have underlying health conditions that put them at higher risk, despite what their weight is. So the point of the study is that the protective benefit of being younger is lost if you're overweight or obese. But of course people can reduce their chance of having a severe problem with Covid even as they get older through an exercise program, which reduces underlying health conditions like hypertension and heart disease. The statistics are overwhelming in showing that most people that die from the virus have underlying health conditions, so eating healthy and exercising is critical to reduce the risk.

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1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

The exact number for the US population being overweight is 72%. If you look at this study, 85% of hospitalized people under 50 were overweight compared to 54% of people over age 70. The number is much lower for older people because many older people have underlying health conditions that put them at higher risk, despite what their weight is. So the point of the study is that the protective benefit of being younger is lost if you're overweight or obese. But of course people can reduce their chance of having a severe problem with Covid even as they get older through an exercise program, which reduces underlying health conditions like hypertension and heart disease. The statistics are overwhelming in showing that most people that die from the virus have underlying health conditions, so eating healthy and exercising is critical to reduce the risk.

:clap:

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Lol. My marathon runner cousin was winded walking up steps five months after having covid and is continually having issue after issue with lungs. Dying is not the only deleterious aspect of covid.

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Both Minnesota and Illinois had good drops in case numbers from last Monday. Continues to imply numbers have peaked in the region. But other regions are still increasing.

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15 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Lol. My marathon runner cousin was winded walking up steps five months after having covid and is continually having issue after issue with lungs. Dying is not the only deleterious aspect of covid.

There are always exceptions, and obviously your cousin is one unfortunately. But the overwhelming majority of healthy althletes that get Covid get mild symptoms or no symptoms at all. Look at all the baseball and football players that have tested positive. Almost all have had very mild symptoms or no symptoms. I am a runner with an elite athlete heart (resting heart rate of 36) and had Covid back in April. All I had was a scratchy throat, slight headache and small amount of congestion for 3 days. Doctor said being in great shape is what caused it to be so mild for me. You greatly increase the chance of being a very mild case by being in great shape, but of course there will always be some unlucky exceptions like your cousin. I hope he gets better very soon.

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1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

There are always exceptions, and obviously your cousin is one unfortunately. But the overwhelming majority of healthy althletes that get Covid get mild symptoms or no symptoms at all. Look at all the baseball and football players that have tested positive. Almost all have had very mild symptoms or no symptoms. I am a runner with an elite athlete heart (resting heart rate of 36) and had Covid back in April. All I had was a scratchy throat, slight headache and small amount of congestion for 3 days. Doctor said being in great shape is what caused it to be so mild for me. You greatly increase the chance of being a very mild case by being in great shape, but of course there will always be some unlucky exceptions like your cousin. I hope he gets better very soon.

I think your point is well taken from an individual risk standpoint. You could potentially reduce your risk a bit by losing a bit of weight and exercising. The idea that we can exercise our way out of a pandemic though seems pretty tough, though. 

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5 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I think your point is well taken from an individual risk standpoint. You could potentially reduce your risk a bit by losing a bit of weight and exercising. The idea that we can exercise our way out of a pandemic though seems pretty tough, though. 

Yeah I don't think we could exercise our way out of the pandemic completely, but we could make the pandemic less severe if most people improved their health through exercise. Which is why I feel health authorities should be pushing the exercise point as much as they push the mask wearing/social distancing point, but unfortunately you don't hear them do that much. Unfortunately there are a lot of people that don't realize that you can reduce risk through an exercise program.

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Of course you can shift the odds in your favor by maintaining a healthy weight and exercising, but to some extent it's still luck of the draw.  The long-hauler thing is still a little tough to firmly quantify, but I have read lots of stories of people in their 20s-40s who are at a healthy weight and are still having issues months after getting covid.  Again, hard to quantify but it's obviously not some 1 in a million thing.  Hopefully they fully recover in time.

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Just now, winterwx21 said:

Yeah I don't think we could exercise our way out of the pandemic completely, but we could make the pandemic less severe if most people improved their health through exercise. Which is why I feel health authorities should be pushing the exercise point as much as they push the mask wearing/social distancing point, but unfortunately you don't hear them do that much. Unfortunately there are a lot of people that don't realize that you can reduce risk through an exercise program.

It's because it seems like a very circuitous way to get to your end goal. Scientist and health folks certainly know that being overweight leads to poor health outcomes in general, but you're going to get far more bang for your buck with social distancing, masking then you are with hoping that some people listen and get healthier. I don't believe obesity is as big of a problem in Europe as it is in US, but they're still having a hell of a time. 

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1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

The exact number for the US population being overweight is 72%. If you look at this study, 85% of hospitalized people under 50 were overweight compared to 54% of people over age 70. The number is much lower for older people because many older people have underlying health conditions that put them at higher risk, despite what their weight is. So the point of the study is that the protective benefit of being younger is lost if you're overweight or obese. But of course people can reduce their chance of having a severe problem with Covid even as they get older through an exercise program, which reduces underlying health conditions like hypertension and heart disease. The statistics are overwhelming in showing that most people that die from the virus have underlying health conditions, so eating healthy and exercising is critical to reduce the risk.

We've gone over it in this thread before but over 96% of individuals that have died from COVID had two or more pre-existing conditions. The interesting thing I heard from a doctor at the Cleveland Clinic is that obesity and hypertension seem to be the worst with COVID--- he indicated that smokers have better outcomes when dealing with COVID. 

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1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah I don't think we could exercise our way out of the pandemic completely, but we could make the pandemic less severe if most people improved their health through exercise. Which is why I feel health authorities should be pushing the exercise point as much as they push the mask wearing/social distancing point, but unfortunately you don't hear them do that much. Unfortunately there are a lot of people that don't realize that you can reduce risk through an exercise program.

not exercising doesn't spread the disease.

not wearing masks and not social distancing do.

this is a spurious comparison that makes no sense.

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Basically all of the mid-upper plains and MN, WI, IL, MI are showing signs of a short term decline in case load now, though hospitalizations is still rising a bit in IL, MI & MN. Most states outside of that group are still showing increases. May get a bit of decline followed by an undulating plateau with case numbers with numbers impacted by things like states limiting transmission vectors and events like Thanksgiving. Partial herd immunity will be becoming a factor in some states as well

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