• Member Statistics

    16,093
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    fujiwara79
    Newest Member
    fujiwara79
    Joined

Recommended Posts

50 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

"The company (Regeneron) said it expects to have does of REGEN-COV2 treatment ready for about 80,000 patients by the end of this month, about 200,000 patients by the first week of January and approximately 300,000 patients in total by the end of January."

Also: "The FDA said the antibodies are not authorized for patients who are hospitalized due to COVID-19 or require oxygen therapy due to COVID-19."

https://www.newsnationnow.com/health/coronavirus/vaccine/fda-grants-emergency-use-authorization-to-regeneron-covid-19-antibody-given-to-trump/

So the treatment is for patients who are positive and a high risk for developing severe symptoms or have a high viral load.

How much will this treatment cost?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

"The company (Regeneron) said it expects to have does of REGEN-COV2 treatment ready for about 80,000 patients by the end of this month, about 200,000 patients by the first week of January and approximately 300,000 patients in total by the end of January."

Also: "The FDA said the antibodies are not authorized for patients who are hospitalized due to COVID-19 or require oxygen therapy due to COVID-19."

https://www.newsnationnow.com/health/coronavirus/vaccine/fda-grants-emergency-use-authorization-to-regeneron-covid-19-antibody-given-to-trump/

So the treatment is for patients who are positive and a high risk for developing severe symptoms or have a high viral load.

That is the tricky part. You have to identify the at risk positives early in the infection cycle to get them the treatment. This is easy for Trump, not as easy for someone in a rural area who has to wait 5 days to get test results back after getting symptoms. So you need a distribution system in place as well as letting those who are at risk (older/comordibities) know that this treatment is available and to get it early.

This is a departure from the current message which is to just isolate unless you feel like you need to go to the hospital. You wait to that point its too late for the treatment. You also need to get your tests back in a timely manner. The earlier the better. Hopefully the prelim data on this is accurate and it can reduce the burden on hospital system and hopefully mortality rates (haven't seen data on mortality benefit yet) until we can get vaccinations ramped up.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, dan11295 said:

That is the tricky part. You have to identify the at risk positives early in the infection cycle to get them the treatment. This is easy for Trump, not as easy for someone in a rural area who has to wait 5 days to get test results back after getting symptoms. So you need a distribution system in place as well as letting those who are at risk (older/comordibities) know that this treatment is available and to get it early.

This is a departure from the current message which is to just isolate unless you feel like you need to go to the hospital. You wait to that point its too late for the treatment. You also need to get your tests back in a timely manner. The earlier the better. Hopefully the prelim data on this is accurate and it can reduce the burden on hospital system and hopefully mortality rates (haven't seen data on mortality benefit yet) until we can get vaccinations ramped up.

Think of it this way.  We are confirming almost 200k cases per day.  Now how many of those are considered "at risk", who knows.  Would a 55 year old with hypertension qualify or is that not enough?  Would like to be optimistic but you outlined the challenges well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I know the potential benefits of the warmer weather a couple weeks ago in reducing transmission rates was discussed. Its certainly hasn't helped PA very much. They had 6500 cases today, with no Philly,

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Illinois with another 10k plus day

Hospitalized actually -100 today in IL (some of that may be weekend reporting) but looks like short term the spike has at least stabilized or even dropping a bit in the upper Midwest in general. Wisconsin just came in with a much lower number (3500 cases). Tests were much lower but positivity is really coming down too. That is interesting because they have done very little mitigation there. Other areas of the country are still rising so it more than cancels the slight declines we are seeing here though. Numbers may only be up by ~10k nationally from last Sunday though so I think cases plateau nationally by next week (before any Thanksgiving spike would show up).

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

at least 5 slobs passed me not wearing a mask in Restaurant Depot this AM while i shopped. This state rivals the trash down south now and is barely hanging on.

  • Haha 1
  • Sad 1
  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Hospitalized actually -100 today in IL (some of that may be weekend reporting) but looks like short term the spike has at least stabilized or even dropping a bit in the upper Midwest in general. Wisconsin just came in with a much lower number (3500 cases). Tests were much lower but positivity is really coming down too. That is interesting because they have done very little mitigation there. Other areas of the country are still rising so it more than cancels the slight declines we are seeing here though. Numbers may only be up by ~10k nationally from last Sunday though so I think cases plateau nationally by next week (before any Thanksgiving spike would show up).

Did some math on Wisconsin.  If total cases are 5x higher than confirmed (which is a very reasonable possibility, and could even be playing it conservatively), it would mean 30% of the state has been infected.  The stuff about transmission rates and how much of a percentage you have to get to start seeing some effects of partial immunity is something I don't know much about.  I think the real test will be after Thanksgiving.  If there is still no increase in Wisconsin in the weeks after Thanksgiving, and absent mitigations, then it would give credence to the idea that maybe they reached a point where the virus has taken enough people out of the "pool" (at least for a period of time) and knocked the rate of transmission back.  Very speculative though.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Did some math on Wisconsin.  If total cases are 5x higher than confirmed (which is a very reasonable possibility, and could even be playing it conservatively), it would mean 30% of the state has been infected.  The stuff about transmission rates and how much of a percentage you have to get to start seeing some effects of partial immunity is something I don't know much about.  I think the real test will be after Thanksgiving.  If there is still no increase in Wisconsin in the weeks after Thanksgiving, and absent mitigations, then it would give credence to the idea that maybe they reached a point where the virus has taken enough people out of the "pool" (at least for a period of time) and knocked the rate of transmission back.  Very speculative though.

Would think this would happen in the Dakotas very soon. 9.5% of ND has tested positive Would imply 40%+ in state exposed.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Its about 50% infected, where the transmissions start going down. Obviously hospitalizations and deaths would lag that. Yeah, if infections start going down and hospitalizations drop by January, then the vaccine was too late and frankly, irrelevant. Even states seem to be suspecting this based on lack of enforcement and hoping for further reopening in January.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

Its about 50% infected, where the transmissions start going down.

Did you read that somewhere or is it a personal guess?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some rough math here, with some assumptions about how many cases are being missed now:

Back at April peak we were catching ~25% of cases we are now. We have good comparison data now on this by comparing cases vs hospitalizations in states like PA/MI/NJ. Takes 4x as many cases now to get same number of hospitalizations. Means with with today's testing you would have had 40k cases a day in NY! It is assumed we are currently catching 25% of actual transmission now. and have been since about July.

If you average out case load between April and early July (~3 Million cases were confirmed in this time period). you went from 16x to 4x ratio of real infections vs tested for mean of 10x.  So say (3Mx10 = 30 M real infections). From July until 16 days ago (to account for death report lag) you had 7Mx4=28M real infections. 250k/58M =~0.43% IFR.

Obvious some error bars but would imply close to 800k deaths without a vaccine with a slow burn to herd immunity. (330M*0.6*0.004) ~800k. If we are lucky the vaccine will prevent maybe 450k of those.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, dan11295 said:

Some rough math here, with some assumptions about how many cases are being missed now:

Back at April peak we were catching ~25% of cases we are now. We have good comparison data now on this by comparing cases vs hospitalizations in states like PA/MI/NJ. Takes 4x as many cases now to get same number of hospitalizations. Means with with today's testing you would have had 40k cases a day in NY! It is assumed we are currently catching 25% of actual transmission now. and have been since about July.

If you average out case load between April and early July (~3 Million cases were confirmed in this time period). you went from 16x to 4x ratio of real infections vs tested for mean of 10x.  So say (3Mx10 = 30 M real infections). From July until 16 days ago (to account for death report lag) you had 7Mx4=28M real infections. 250k/58M =~0.43% IFR.

Obvious some error bars but would imply close to 800k deaths without a vaccine with a slow burn to herd immunity. (330M*0.6*0.004) ~800k. If we are lucky the vaccine will prevent maybe 450k of those.

The population being infected does not represent a perfect slice of the US population. The implied IFR lowers since older folks are protecting themselves more than younger folks. You can see this reflected in the age stratified CDC commercial lab survey. 

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#national-lab

I know the CDC IFR estimates from March/April is slightly over 1% when adjusted for population distribution and afaik we have not cut the disease IFR by better treatments in excess of 60 percent. 

The UK hospitalization data is better than the US because its more nationalized. The in-hospital death rate there appears about 45% lower than the first wave. 

16x early on is too high imo. The antibody data from that time averaged more like 12x. 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, dan11295 said:

Some rough math here, with some assumptions about how many cases are being missed now:

Back at April peak we were catching ~25% of cases we are now. We have good comparison data now on this by comparing cases vs hospitalizations in states like PA/MI/NJ. Takes 4x as many cases now to get same number of hospitalizations. Means with with today's testing you would have had 40k cases a day in NY! It is assumed we are currently catching 25% of actual transmission now. and have been since about July.

If you average out case load between April and early July (~3 Million cases were confirmed in this time period). you went from 16x to 4x ratio of real infections vs tested for mean of 10x.  So say (3Mx10 = 30 M real infections). From July until 16 days ago (to account for death report lag) you had 7Mx4=28M real infections. 250k/58M =~0.43% IFR.

Obvious some error bars but would imply close to 800k deaths without a vaccine with a slow burn to herd immunity. (330M*0.6*0.004) ~800k. If we are lucky the vaccine will prevent maybe 450k of those.

This site which previously modeled out to the future has launched a new project trying to model backwards to answer the question you are looking into above.

https://covid19-projections.com/

Their best estimate is 48M total infections but a range from 32M to 73M

Some pretty impressive/sad maps showing how widespread it has become in many of the midwest states while other states that put in measures to contain the thing - Hawaii, NH, VT, ME, CA, WA, OR have fared much better.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I swear these toilet paper hoarders make me hate people. WHAT IS THE POINT OF BUYING UP SO MUCH TP!? I have a few friends who have caught Covid as well as my boss & no one has mentioned explosive diarrhea as a side effect

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, mattb65 said:

This site which previously modeled out to the future has launched a new project trying to model backwards to answer the question you are looking into above.

https://covid19-projections.com/

Their best estimate is 48M total infections but a range from 32M to 73M

Some pretty impressive/sad maps showing how widespread it has become in many of the midwest states while other states that put in measures to contain the thing - Hawaii, NH, VT, ME, CA, WA, OR have fared much better.

The per capita numbers in the Dakotas are so bad. Both now in top 10 per capita deaths, only behind the the northeast and LA/MS.The pure numbers are low so people tend to gloss over them sometimes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Even when the missing state reports are added tomorrow, today will be about the same as last Sunday. Nationally positivity rates have stabilized and have begun to fall. Trends are suggesting a peak is occurring in the numbers overall, and hospitalizations should peak early next week.. Peak is occurring a bit quicker than I expected, tbh. Obviously, stuff like Thanksgiving gatherings could at least temporarily stop any declines. Some states will still be rising in cases, and the next few weeks will have some ugly numbers. But I think there is a good chance overall numbers are on the decline as we go through December through a combination of partial herd immunity is some hard hit upper Midwest states and more aggressive restrictions in some others.

Future spike could also flare up during the winter depending on other events like Christmas, etc.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Deaths will still rise as death is a lagging indicator.

Yes I know that. Put at least there are some encouraging signs in the numbers. going forward.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
58 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Even when the missing state reports are added tomorrow, today will be about the same as last Sunday. Nationally positivity rates have stabilized and have begun to fall. Trends are suggesting a peak is occurring in the numbers overall, and hospitalizations should peak early next week.. Peak is occurring a bit quicker than I expected, tbh. Obviously, stuff like Thanksgiving gatherings could at least temporarily stop any declines. Some states will still be rising in cases, and the next few weeks will have some ugly numbers. But I think there is a good chance overall numbers are on the decline as we go through December through a combination of partial herd immunity is some hard hit upper Midwest states and more aggressive restrictions in some others.

Future spike could also flare up during the winter depending on other events like Christmas, etc.

Wouldn't it be a godsend if we peak sometime soon.  Have to wait and see.  Even if so, I think we may be on a horrendous plateau with this thing due to getting "held up" by the holiday gatherings and, unlike spring, there are several months of more favorable transmission conditions (cold, dry weather) left to get through.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...