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MAG5035

Central PA - Spring 2020

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3 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

I don't know if much of tonight's wave makes it very far east of the mountains, but from I-99/US 220  below I-80 westward into the Laurel's region this is starting to look like a surprise event considering what CTP has in their winter products at the moment compared to the models today. Early HRRR looks into this event are pretty robust, with more northern extent than the NAM and high end advisory snow amounts Cambria/Somerset (Laurels). Models are generally supportive of that region (and even into the surrounding counties) seeing potentially an advisory event "on paper". Temps are warm today obviously, but dew points are very low.. so I don't think getting a timely changeover will be hard once the heavier precip moves in. 

Given how warm it has been and virtually no preceding or entrenched true cold, this is going to be very springlike and play out more like an early April type wave.. with accums mostly on the grassy surfaces and it might take awhile to actually get anything going on the ground. But timing of this thing overnight is going to help. I think any road issues that pop up will be reserved for the higher Laurel's. Somerset County looks to be the PA place to be for this, and I wouldn't be surprised if parts of that county sees close to the amount the short term guidance is putting out snow wise. I don't think the precip makes it past the the mountains to the Sus Valley heavy enough to make for any accums, even if it does actually mix or changeover. Will have to see how the swath tracks, as it could run the turnpike or perhaps make it a bit further north as the HRRR is suggesting. A decent amount of guidance says I get my biggest snowfall of the season tonight, we'll see lol. 

Yea was supposed to start here as rain me never did-started snow and has remained snow-MAM showing 5” here now maybe-hard to believe I went for a walk this morning in shorts and a hoodie - lol

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9 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Are you getting the chance to use that snow board tonight?

I had a light coating on the grass and cold surfaces, 0.2” ish. It was snowing decent for a little while last night. It seemed just a couple hundred feet of elevation made the difference between that and a half inch to an inch here off the Laurels, and once below about 1100-1200’ (I’m at about 1300’) there was little to no accum. The Allegheny Front is white of course, I didn’t get a chance to run up and see how much was up there. 

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13 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I had a light coating on the grass and cold surfaces, 0.2” ish. It was snowing decent for a little while last night. It seemed just a couple hundred feet of elevation made the difference between that and a half inch to an inch here off the Laurels, and once below about 1100-1200’ (I’m at about 1300’) there was little to no accum. The Allegheny Front is white of course, I didn’t get a chance to run up and see how much was up there. 

Congrats! In this winter, any sighting of snow is a win.

I saw 0.0 snowflakes last night. It was just too warm yesterday in the LSV at the surface. We just were not cold enough despite the colder air available up above & the low dew point. 

Maybe this Thursday we will have the chance at some front end snow ?

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We’re all doomed lol drove by local farmers market and it’s packed along with every restaurant....we’re about to make Italy look like a walk in the park I’m afraid.

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42 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

We’re all doomed lol drove by local farmers market and it’s packed along with every restaurant....we’re about to make Italy look like a walk in the park I’m afraid.

My son works at a restaurant and has been sent home early the past 2 days due to lack of/no business. Grocery stores are jammed but a lot of restaurants not so much.

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That’s good to hear man ...drive by some up here and EVERY spot is taken same at the farmers market. Glad people in south central are smarter.

9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

My son works at a restaurant and has been sent home early the past 2 days due to lack of/no business. Grocery stores are jammed but a lot of restaurants not so much.

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3 hours ago, Wmsptwx said:

That’s good to hear man ...drive by some up here and EVERY spot is taken same at the farmers market. Glad people in south central are smarter.

Eating establishments here are also packed.  Road is a little less busy that normal.  Just drove by an ice cream store and the line was out the door.  People are apparently going out more thinking they are going to be ordered in soon.

 

4 counties in Eastern PA are about to go under recommended shut in. 

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Our hyacinth are all fully blooming.  

A month or so early. Is normally w afraid of a hard freeze but we aren’t getting another one it appears. 

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2 hours ago, canderson said:

Our hyacinth are all fully blooming.  

A month or so early. Is normally w afraid of a hard freeze but we aren’t getting another one it appears. 

Some areas may get into the mid 20's tonight but probably not Harrisburg. 

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10 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Congrats! In this winter, any sighting of snow is a win.

I saw 0.0 snowflakes last night. It was just too warm yesterday in the LSV at the surface. We just were not cold enough despite the colder air available up above & the low dew point. 

Maybe this Thursday we will have the chance at some front end snow ?

How? It's looking like we don't get below the mid 40s Wednesday night on our way to at least the mid 60s Thursday. 

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1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

How? It's looking like we don't get below the mid 40s Wednesday night on our way to at least the mid 60s Thursday. 

The models & CTP backed off of the Thursday front end chance today. CTP, up until this morning, had rain or snow chances for zones in the LSV for Wednesday night & Thursday am. Up until last night, there were several models that, for a few days, showed the opportunity. Once again, it doesn’t appear to be working out.

I still haven’t given up on snow chances by the end of the month. The MJO across all models is moving into phase 1,2 & then 3. Sure, it is very late in the game, but at least the MJO might finally cooperate.

 

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The models & CTP backed off of the Thursday front end chance today. CTP, up until this morning, had rain or snow chances for zones in the LSV for Wednesday night & Thursday am. Up until last night, there were several models that, for a few days, showed the opportunity. Once again, it doesn’t appear to be working out.
I still haven’t given up on snow chances by the end of the month. The MJO across all models is moving into phase 1,2 & then 3. Sure, it is very late in the game, but at least the MJO might finally cooperate.
 

Hahahahaha this is only the 13th time this has happened since December.

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10 minutes ago, anotherman said:


Hahahahaha this is only the 13th time this has happened since December.

At this point, it is funny.

We only have a few weeks to go in which snow is remotely possible in this region. I’m going to enjoy tracking to the bitter end. Maybe we will get lucky just once ?

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At this point, it is funny.
We only have a few weeks to go in which snow is remotely possible in this region. I’m going to enjoy tracking to the bitter end. Maybe we will get lucky just once ?

It’s the least of my concerns at this point. I’m actually rooting for warmer temperatures in hopes that maybe it will help with the virus. Who knows...
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1 hour ago, anotherman said:


It’s the least of my concerns at this point. I’m actually rooting for warmer temperatures in hopes that maybe it will help with the virus. Who knows...

It won’t. It’s starting to thrive in SE Asia  and Qatar. 

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30 minutes ago, canderson said:

State (Dauphin County is closing oh for 14 days, telework only. 

Getting hard to grasp all the things this can effect.  Courts?  Mail?  Drivers Licenses?  Taxes? 

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18 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm starting to wonder if schools are finished until the fall. If they indeed close for 8 weeks the kids would be going back with about 2-3 weeks left in this school year.

I heard rumor of skipping summer (seriously).  NBA talking about the same thing.  Finishing season in June and July. 

 

One thing I do not think will go well is teleschool/remote school.  Whether they just ignore it and pass everyone on is another story.

 

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NBA is looking at late June as the earliest to restart. And since they were the first league to experience as positive, and the first league to act, they will be seen as the metric upon which other leagues act. This means the NBA and NHL will likely have the finish to their seasons in the summer through fall, take a month or two off to rest and heal, and then have a very abbreviated 2020/21 season. 

 

Baseball will likely have to deal with a very short, 90 game or so season, which might not be the worst thing, but that sets us up for the potential for an bunch of underachievers and an over achiever taking advantage of the shortened season. 

 

A lawyer in England familiar with the English Football Association has stated that they have until April to resume the current football season or it will have to be forfeited. World football, as a whole, I feel is done until next season, as their offseason (North America not withstanding) runs from May-August. 

 

I think it's time to shut it down. Lockdown the entire country for all non-essentials for eight weeks. If you can work from home, you should. If not, the stimulus is in place to provide you wish coverage. There are too many people in Central PA who are treating this as a vacation and with the nice weather, are posting on social media about their activities, as if this is summer break. This is how this shit will spread. It's time to shut it down, and like Italy, issue forms to everyone who is not sick that authorizes them to go out for food, prescriptions, and essential shit alone. This isn't a vacation. That's how the decision to close the schools becomes rendered useless. 

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11 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

NBA is looking at late June as the earliest to restart. And since they were the first league to experience as positive, and the first league to act, they will be seen as the metric upon which other leagues act. This means the NBA and NHL will likely have the finish to their seasons in the summer through fall, take a month or two off to rest and heal, and then have a very abbreviated 2020/21 season. 

 

Baseball will likely have to deal with a very short, 90 game or so season, which might not be the worst thing, but that sets us up for the potential for an bunch of underachievers and an over achiever taking advantage of the shortened season. 

 

A lawyer in England familiar with the English Football Association has stated that they have until April to resume the current football season or it will have to be forfeited. World football, as a whole, I feel is done until next season, as their offseason (North America not withstanding) runs from May-August. 

 

I think it's time to shut it down. Lockdown the entire country for all non-essentials for eight weeks. If you can work from home, you should. If not, the stimulus is in place to provide you wish coverage. There are too many people in Central PA who are treating this as a vacation and with the nice weather, are posting on social media about their activities, as if this is summer break. This is how this shit will spread. It's time to shut it down, and like Italy, issue forms to everyone who is not sick that authorizes them to go out for food, prescriptions, and essential shit alone. This isn't a vacation. That's how the decision to close the schools becomes rendered useless. 

This is right. The only way to stop this is to force close everything - should've been done two weeks ago in states with cases. Instead we had leaders telling people it'll go away on its own and to go to work even if they're feeling sick. 

They REALLY f'd this up. Now everyone's trying to play catchup and put the horses back in the barn. 

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

Getting hard to grasp all the things this can effect.  Courts?  Mail?  Drivers Licenses?  Taxes? 

Bus drivers... :(

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1 minute ago, Voyager said:

Bus drivers... :(

I thought you gave up that gig. I imagine busses right now are just rolling coffins. Cruise ships are floating coffins.

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

I heard rumor of skipping summer (seriously).  NBA talking about the same thing.  Finishing season in June and July. 

 

One thing I do not think will go well is teleschool/remote school.  Whether they just ignore it and pass everyone on is another story.

 

If schools were in session all summer, can you imagine the outcry with family vacation plans?

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28 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

If schools were in session all summer, can you imagine the outcry with family vacation plans?

That alone is why that will never happen. They'll just consider this year a loss and go based off of how graders were at the point of shutdown.

 

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