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Rtd208

February 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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49 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The nightmare is almost over. I'm actually a lot more optimistic about this spring.

Right now it doesn't look like a repeat of past years' cold/wet blocky springs. 

This is definitely my worst winter ever. Worse than 11/12 & 01/02 which were a lot less murky. Snow wise it's about the same. This year we got the worst/ugliest pattern possible with the worst teleconnections you could find. 

Honestly the warmth & lack of snow easily could've been worse but the pattern gave us just slightly better conditions on this side of the globe vs Europe which saw the warmest winter ever. 

I am not optimistic about spring

There is no way we could continue +5+6 indefinitely

And for some reason we are to believe that the pattern that has been stuck in place for the past couple of winters won’t play out in March/Aprillike it always has... a warm spring would be the only part of this re run that is not a re run

 

Frankly, I just dont believe it. Time will tell

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53 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

hello SE ridges 

cdas-sflux_ssta_atl_1.png

SE ridge city. Those SSTAs are blazing. Can you say positive feedback loop? I have a bad feeling this spring/summer/fall is going to torch big time

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3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

SE ridge city. Those SSTAs are blazing. Can you say positive feedback loop? I have a bad feeling this spring/summer/fall is going to torch big time

Disgusting 

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3 hours ago, PB-99 said:

 

The trough wants to back up into the midsection, so you end up cold and dry for 5 days and then storms will cut.

 

1583366400-aLdH4IyqaI8.png

 

 

1583366400-I5cpqtPITqQ.png

 

 

 

Here is a 5 to 7  day transient cold dry shot

 

1583236800-7uMdou4yCjY.png

 

1583193600-mlaFzQh2130.png

 

There is nothing but LP to your north which will allow storms to cut in the longer range.

1583366400-q1ub1Avo0fo.png

 

 

 

Just an incredibly positive AO/NAO. You aren’t sustaining sustaining any cold with that garbage over the arctic and North Atlantic. And as Forky pointed out, SE Ridge city coming up. This “winter” is destined go down with the biggest clunkers of the last 25 years; 97-98, 01-02, 11-12.....

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35 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

SE ridge city. Those SSTAs are blazing. Can you say positive feedback loop? I have a bad feeling this spring/summer/fall is going to torch big time

Last spring there was a cold pool off the NE coast-no sign of that  this year and no sign of a -NAO which dominated last spring.   Looks like a very different setup.

Feb 89 is a good match to this month, that spring-how was it?  Can't remember myself

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2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

hello SE ridges 

 

The record +AO just reinforces that background North Atlantic SST pattern that has been stuck in place for years. So we get record SST warmth off the East Coast and that cold pool south of Greemland.

B956C501-697A-4F04-92C0-7369EBE795AF.png.38868dd46418041f7f128d2ae3e90745.png

 

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22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The record +AO just reinforces that background North Atlantic SST pattern that has been stuck in place for years. So we get record SST warmth off the East Coast and that cold pool south of Greemland.

B956C501-697A-4F04-92C0-7369EBE795AF.png.38868dd46418041f7f128d2ae3e90745.png

 

if that base state holds through summer we'll get a 2018 style steambath

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2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

SE ridge city. Those SSTAs are blazing. Can you say positive feedback loop? I have a bad feeling this spring/summer/fall is going to torch big time

We've missed out on a blazing summer past several years. I think we're due for one.

High temp/high dew combo in the works?

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17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

We've missed out on a blazing summer past several years. I think we're due for one.

High temp/high dew combo in the works?

We set multiple dew point records in the past two summers. It is very hard to have super high dew points and record warm conditions. We can still be very muggy and hot, but to have dews like we have been having and upper 90s to low 100s is very hard to pull off.

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3 hours ago, forkyfork said:

if that base state holds through summer we'll get a 2018 style steambath

@forkyfork I have a question. The Bermuda high that summer was positioned so far north that we were getting a lot of easterly flow. Were we getting the northerly edge of the Trades?

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Another short period of cold is overspreading the region. Nevertheless, the second half of February will likely be warmer than normal overall. More cooler air could arrive by the end of February or the beginning of March, but its magnitude and duration are uncertain at present. If some past cases with a strongly positive AO during the first half of March are representative, the cold would likely last around a week before warmth returns.

Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through at least the first 24 days of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm.

A snowfall will likely affect parts of North Carolina and southeastern Virginia tomorrow into Friday. Likely accumulations include: Greenville, NC: 3"-6"; Norfolk: 2"-4"; Raleigh: 2"-4"; and, Wilmington: 1" or less.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around February 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.38°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm ENSO conditions.

The SOI was -15.75 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +4.347. That surpassed the previous daily record of +3.891 from 1989.

No significant stratospheric warming is likely through February 27, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity could begin to increase late in the period. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS into the third week of February.

On February 18, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.815 (RMM). The February 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.883.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 64% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record. The mean monthly temperature will likely finish near 39.5°.

Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region.

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The next 8 days are averaging 41.5degs., or about 5degs. AN.

Month to date is  +6.1[40.5].      February should be  near +5.5[40.7] by the 28th.     The last 10 days of February are averaging (0Z,GFS) 38.5degs., so February should end near +4.5[39.8].   The first 6 days of March were a toasty 46degs.!    Only the CMC has some snow near the 27th.

30* here at 6am.       33* by 9am.      35* by Noon.

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9 hours ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

It's been a while since we've had a widespread 100+ degree day, a la 7/6/10 or 7/22/11. 

Last July was really close. 7-21-19 set or tied multiple record high temperatures at 99 degrees. Since the dew points were so high, the heat indices were similar to 7-22-11. The month also finished top 10 warmest around +3. JFK came within 1 degree of the all-time highest  heat index at 114 degrees.

AF80A901-26A1-4956-B125-8DF6E8772AD0.thumb.png.03b4f3852492452b7dfe0fbbf0bbb0e2.png

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2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Worst winter ever

 

It's insane how nothing is working out.  I have never saw a winter like this before

what? Yesterday you said it was coming now it's not?

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This is the same winter snowfall pattern as last year. It’s 9th lowest in snowfall and last winter finished 7th. Identical storm track pattern of cutter, hugger, and southern stream suppressed snowstorms.
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Season
Total Snowfall
Missing Count
1 1997-1998 0.5 0
2 1918-1919 1.1 0
3 1972-1973 2.6 0
4 1931-1932 2.7 0
5 1991-1992 3.2 0
6 2001-2002 3.5 0
7 2018-2019 3.7 0
8 2011-2012 4.5 0
9 2019-2020 4.8 10
10 1989-1990 5.0 0
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10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is the same winter snowfall pattern as last year. It’s 9th lowest in snowfall and last winter finished 7th. Identical storm track pattern of cutter, hugger, and southern stream suppressed snowstorms.
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Season
Total Snowfall
Missing Count
1 1997-1998 0.5 0
2 1918-1919 1.1 0
3 1972-1973 2.6 0
4 1931-1932 2.7 0
5 1991-1992 3.2 0
6 2001-2002 3.5 0
7 2018-2019 3.7 0
8 2011-2012 4.5 0
9 2019-2020 4.8 10
10 1989-1990 5.0 0

How did 1997-1998 finish?

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Just try this one!       I estimate a July analog to December 2015 would consist of 34 straight AN days that would average 76/92 or 84* for the period.

Laugh Now---Die Later

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16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

How did 1997-1998 finish?

97-98 finished the whole snowfall season 7th lowest. They had the benefit of a -AO for DJFM that finally clicked for them on 3-22 with 5.0”. But this year we continue with the record SPV and +AO. 
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30
Missing Count
1 1973-04-30 2.8 0
2 2002-04-30 3.5 0
3 1919-04-30 3.8 0
4 2020-04-30 4.8 72
5 1901-04-30 5.1 2
6 1932-04-30 5.3 0
7 1998-04-30 5.5 0
8 2012-04-30 7.4 0
9 1989-04-30 8.1 0
- 1878-04-30 8.1 0
10 1951-04-30 9.3 0
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56 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is the same winter snowfall pattern as last year. It’s 9th lowest in snowfall and last winter finished 7th. Identical storm track pattern of cutter, hugger, and southern stream suppressed snowstorms.
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Season
Total Snowfall
Missing Count
1 1997-1998 0.5 0
2 1918-1919 1.1 0
3 1972-1973 2.6 0
4 1931-1932 2.7 0
5 1991-1992 3.2 0
6 2001-2002 3.5 0
7 2018-2019 3.7 0
8 2011-2012 4.5 0
9 2019-2020 4.8 10
10 1989-1990 5.0 0

Only difference was we were colder last winter because the Pv wasn’t as strong. 

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4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Only difference was we were colder last winter because the Pv wasn’t as strong. 

I finished with 15 inches last winter. This year I might not even finish above 5.

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5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Only difference was we were colder last winter because the Pv wasn’t as strong. 

That just goes to show how important the storm track and teleconnections are for snow here. Both winters featured that strong ridge stuck just north of Hawaii. So we had similar DJF snowfall even though this winter was 3 degrees warmer.

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