• Member Statistics

    16,728
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Stormheartgypsy
    Newest Member
    Stormheartgypsy
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
Fields27

Winter 2020 Med/Long Range Disco

Recommended Posts

@Ralph Wiggum I'm pretty sure you were the one who had said this in the past but isn't the NAVGEM usually too suppressed when it comes to synoptic events? And when it shows an amped solution with the other models being suppressed that it will sometimes lead the way? Is this some weird weenie handbook code? Am I just making it up and misremembering another model? Anyway, the NAVGEM is way further amped and NW than the other models. 

 

navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_23.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

@Ralph Wiggum I'm pretty sure you were the one who had said this in the past but isn't the NAVGEM usually too suppressed when it comes to synoptic events? And when it shows an amped solution with the other models being suppressed that it will sometimes lead the way? Is this some weird weenie handbook code? Am I just making it up and misremembering another model? Anyway, the NAVGEM is way further amped and NW than the other models. 

 

navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_23.png

Sounds good to me!

Furthermore, the 12z ICON backs it up. Rooting for the underdogs!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, The Iceman said:

@Ralph Wiggum I'm pretty sure you were the one who had said this in the past but isn't the NAVGEM usually too suppressed when it comes to synoptic events? And when it shows an amped solution with the other models being suppressed that it will sometimes lead the way? Is this some weird weenie handbook code? Am I just making it up and misremembering another model? Anyway, the NAVGEM is way further amped and NW than the other models. 

 

navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_23.png

It absolutely used to be true. But I read a few months back that this bias had been corrected. Never was sourced so it may have just been conjecture.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Still getting some sweet neg NAO looks showing up between Feb 6-14.gfs_z500a_nhem_40.thumb.png.4aacf4bc09fea02e0b77a36345e07517.png

I really like the Feb 08 threat. Think it has a great potential. It;s the ying to this weekend's yang in my eyes. Feb 08 has a lot of teleconnections going for it. 06z GFS showed a MECS in that time frame with ensemble support. Really think this actually could be the one...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

I really like the Feb 08 threat. Think it has a great potential. It;s the ying to this weekend's yang in my eyes. Feb 08 has a lot of teleconnections going for it. 06z GFS showed a MECS in that time frame with ensemble support. Really think this actually could be the one...

It is refreshing to see some individual threats and teases showing up on some ops now during the time frame that I've highlighted. There is growing consensus that the window will be short-lived however with a +NAO gaining legs after the 13th. We'll see how that plays out. There is no guarantee that we score during the favorable window so we better hope and keep fingers crossed as the picture gets muddled irt where we head after this period. 6z GFS shows how we win, 0z CMC shows how we fail. 

Think we need to see how this weekend pans out before moving on to specific threats 10 days out in such an active pattern. 

With all that said, the window Feb 6-14 (might shave a couple days off the tail end after some more ens runs if they continue to show transient looks) still looks like the best hemispheric setup we have seen modeled the entire winter. Not sure that is saying much tho.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

With sst in the N and E ML Pac shifting and the PDO changing configuration recently, perhaps we can see ridging develop nearer the West Coast this time instead of the N Central Pac. IOD is also helping this as it is dropping closer to neutral and into negative which can help realign some of the key tellies that were grossly displaced 4 weeks ago into a more typical and favorable (hopefully sustained?) look as we enter the 2nd half of winter especially later on in Feb.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The arctic cold is locked in far northern Canada day 10 of the ECM. I keep telling myself no that is NOT coming south the last week of February again!

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, RedSky said:

The arctic cold is locked in far northern Canada day 10 of the ECM. I keep telling myself no that is NOT coming south the last week of February again!

 

Day 10 of the euro is setting up a MECS with snow already breaking out in SE PA and energy transferring to the coast. We only need cold air just cold enough....dont need temps in the single digits lol.

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
47 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Day 10 of the euro is setting up a MECS with snow already breaking out in SE PA and energy transferring to the coast. We only need cold air just cold enough....dont need temps in the single digits lol.

Low pressure riding the apps with retreating milk toast high pressure but hey it's day 10 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, RedSky said:

All time record cold and also snow in Saudi Arabia, roads are a parking lot

Yeah when this happens over there were done

 

Facts. Saudi Arabian deserts are the new Siberia. 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No positives for snowlovers in Larry Cosgroves weekly newsletter that's for sure. He says the pattern is NOT going to change and the Easter Seaboard will remain more mild/warm then cold. He also is hinting at a hot summer east of the Continental Divide and good chances for severe weather in the center of the country this spring.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The window of chances that I alluded to is fast approaching (Feb 6-14). The window is open a crack and not as wide open as once depicted. However, plenty of waves rolling thru and cold air nearby to the N and W. If the boundary can drag south behind one of these waves and another call roll thru without amplifying we could see some chances for frozen. Ops and a few ens are hinting at several different possibilities. So I dont believe we are completely in a lights out shutout pattern. Tho admittedly chances are higher that we fail than score a big event. But we'll see.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Despite how awful this winter has been, I still really enjoy ready Mt Holly's AFD's each day. Hinting at potential this weekend, let's see how this threat degrades over the week :lol:

 

Quote
A weak high pressure center will glide to our south Saturday as a
rather strong shortwave trough pivots through the longer wave trough
across the eastern U.S. Guidance is still uncertain what exactly
will happen with this low, but there is the potential for more
wintry precip if it develops into a coastal low and pulls close
enough to the coast. The EC develops a solid surface low just off
our coast, which is good news for snow lovers, though I am not
hanging my hat on this rack by any means given how this winter has
transpired thus far. Could this be our storm?? There is potential,
but would like to see a stronger push of cold air behind the
previous storm system into Saturday. Worth watching, however.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Despite how awful this winter has been, I still really enjoy ready Mt Holly's AFD's each day. Hinting at potential this weekend, let's see how this threat degrades over the week :lol:

 

 

Well, the GEFS and GEPS increase moisture. We'll see if there is any cold to work with. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 2/2/2020 at 9:03 AM, Rtd208 said:

No positives for snowlovers in Larry Cosgroves weekly newsletter that's for sure. He says the pattern is NOT going to change and the Easter Seaboard will remain more mild/warm then cold. He also is hinting at a hot summer east of the Continental Divide and good chances for severe weather in the center of the country this spring.

Larry "2" of ice" Cosgrove? Better luck with the groundhog shadow

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

WXSIM with 6z data for NW Chester County PA has rain tomorrow transitioning to ZR overnite into Thursday with some light icing - up to 3" of rain this week plus for now showing snow heavy at times overnight Saturday into Sunday late morning with 3" to 5" of snow....no fear it will be gone by 12z

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

Models pretty wet for the late week storm. The NAM is 2-3" of rain and the GFS printing out 1.5"-2" of rainfall.

February showers bring March flower and April snows.....or something like that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

6z GFS is a weenie run and a half lol. Sadly, we know it will be gone in 6 hours. Like a March snowstorm.

 

gfs_asnow_neus_65.png

Is that seasonal snow outlook for the next decade? Cause we both know we wont see this the remainder of the season.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Was going to post about the Sat-Sun snow threat anyway but we are sitting at 61F and a Wiggum Rule is in effect, so the weekend has legs. Rule is 60 or higher at KDYL during heart of winter yields some form of snow during the following 5 days. Research increased percentage of this working out since I began the study to a robust 94% success. 

All guidance save the CMC on board for a few inches Saturday night with the EPS being most aggressive. Potent shortwave swings under us. Fast mover but probably the best potential of the season for many here.

The window is likely going to produce!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

really no talk about it, so I ask the question about tomorrow night (wed) for the Poconos area, how is frozen precip looking?  TWC app is saying an inch of snow and some ice expected.  I hate to load the trucks up with salt and waste money for a nothing burger. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.