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2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread


Kmlwx
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18 hours ago, JakkelWx said:

Love how it starts to split as soon as it nears my house. Plenty close enough for loud booms here and there. Constant low rolling thunder now.

Edit: Complete split. Just moderate rain atm. Heavy occasionally but not much else.

Final grade looks to be a D+

Never speak too soon

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1 hour ago, JakkelWx said:

Surprise!

 

        yeah, CAMs have a good signal for storms later this afternoon, mainly for DC and points south.    As SPC notes, instability is weak, but shear is fairly good, and the forecast soundings show some good DCAPE,  so I guess I agree that some gusty winds are possible.

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  • 2 weeks later...
7 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

A damn good thread on improving tornado warning accuracy, it includes a couple of radar grabs from Frederick County, MD. Big takeaway is this research so far is only valuable if the storm is within 60 km (37 mi) from the radar site. 

 

I’ve actually read the papers on this one.  Effectively, they define a vector from the big raindrop region (Zdr) to the heavy precipitation region (Kdp).  If the vector is closer to 90 degrees from storm motion, there is much more likely to be a tornado.  The thought is that a narrower vector puts the Kdp region (negative buoyancy from the heavy rain) too close to the updraft.

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Hmmmmm... from this mornings LWX AFD:

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mid-upper level ridge over the region early on Sunday will be moving
offshore as it feels pressure from deepening trof over the
ncntrl CONUS. Expect highs to reach aoa 80F on Sunday. There
have been some substantial changes in the past 12 hrs on latest
forecasts with respect to next upper level trof fcst to amplify
across the mid- section of the country. 00Z ECMWF shows a slower
and much deeper trof evolving into a closed (cutoff) low over
the mid-south which results in a more intense sfc low pressure
area over the TN Valley that tracks NE and deepens rapidly as it
moves from OH into southwestern Ontario. This scenario would
result in a potentially significant severe wx threat to our area
late Tue and Tue evening as wind fields aloft strengthen
dramatically (500 mb wind speeds anywhere between 70-100 kt
depending on model of choice). The associated cold front looks
to cross the area around 06Z Wed with conditions turning much
cooler for the second half of next week. I would say there is a
high degree of uncertainty with regards to this potential event
given large swings in model guidance with strength and timing of
sfc and upper level features, but it bears watching as it has
potential to be a high impact severe wx event.

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Sept 18 2012 is showing up in CIPS. That was a day 2 hatched to day 1 moderate day for us. 10 percent tor and 45 percent wind. Lots of reports too. 

The SE sector does show 2001 at the number 2 analog spot.

I'm officially interested. 

And CIPS is based on the GFS not even the Euro....... 

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51 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Hope we can get this to bump back 24 hrs. I'm down at Wallops next Tuesday PM for my *hopefully* first Antares launch and the upper level winds would not be good right now.

Knowing our luck it will slow but only to Wed AM and ruin the entire event due to bad timing. 

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50 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Today is the anniversary of the College Park tornado.

 

Why then do the stories only mention 2 deaths, the 2 sisters on UMD campus and not him?  Unless its a different tornado then talked about below in the links?

https://www.tornadotalk.com/college-park-md-f3-tornado-september-24-2001/

https://www.baltimoresun.com/bal-te.md.storm25sep25-story.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_outbreak_of_September_24,_2001

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7 hours ago, yoda said:

Why then do the stories only mention 2 deaths, the 2 sisters on UMD campus and not him?  Unless its a different tornado then talked about below in the links?

https://www.tornadotalk.com/college-park-md-f3-tornado-september-24-2001/

https://www.baltimoresun.com/bal-te.md.storm25sep25-story.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_outbreak_of_September_24,_2001

     He assisted at the cleanup at the Maryland Fire and Rescue Institute which was heavily damaged and suffered a heart attack while driving home that evening.     Who knows if he would have suffered the cardiac episode had he not been at the scene.....

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         I can actually say that I saw the 2001 tornado as it moved through Laurel.      No one had cell phone cameras back then, so I have no pictures, but my view was very similar to this one:

             

 

 

             I'm definitely intrigued by the Tuesday potential, although fall events here are so tough to pull off due to limited instability.

       

 

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