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Tuesday January 7 Potential Snow Event


ChescoWx
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Latest WXSIM with 12z NAM/6z GFS has snow developing on Tuesday PM ending by 7pm with around 2 inches of snow for Western Chester County PA - more snow to the south on the latest NAM....something to potentially watch during our remaining 2 weeks before winter's potential return....

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2 hours ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

Latest WXSIM with 12z NAM/6z GFS has snow developing on Tuesday PM ending by 7pm with around 2 inches of snow for Western Chester County PA - more snow to the south on the latest NAM....something to potentially watch during our remaining 2 weeks before winter's potential return....

I wouldnt hold my breath on winter's return. Trying to remain optimistic but the ens keep pushing the PAC ridge breakdown and any NAO help farther and farther down the line. 

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Temps are warm, but I definitely do think parts of SE PA can pick up 1-2" tomorrow especially if rates are heavy enough. I definitely wouldn't take the GFS 10:1 snow map seriously (well you never should), but take it as where the heaviest snows could likely fall tomorrow evening. As the secondary forms off the coast, you'll see the radar collapse likely and the QPF will dry out. There will definitely be a shadow effect when the transfer occurs. Here's hoping we can hold onto the small but potent primary long enough...

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_5.png

gfs_asnow_neus_8.png

 

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41 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

NAM 12k from 0z is inline with my thoughts a general c-2" event. Should be rippage for a period as well per the NAM. Has some good forcing moving thru the region.

namconus_asnowd_neus_11.png

Even a 2” storm here would easily be the biggest so far. Just some snow showers seen here in Royersford.

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Most guidance continues to trend this farther N with a torch BL in and around SE PA even to Lancaster.  Being this is such a fast mover (3-4 houes?) I'm wondering just how much accumulating snow the region will actually see especially South and East of say Morgantown PA. While it's nice to see the NAM overdo qpf again it is basically by itself. The more realistic snow depth maps on the NAM which I find to be VERY accurate in these marginal events support the c-2" idea I suggested....leaning low end of that from say Pottstown S and E. Latest hrrr rolled in while typing and has trended warmer and is essentially a nothing burger for the area and has trending support among other guidance. Not impressed. Will be thrilled to see an hour of white rain thumpage and a quick coating of slush here before the system pulls away.  

hrrr_asnow_neus_18.png

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Latest WXSIM with 6z data holds serve with Snow arriving by 330pm. Snow gets heavy between 6 and 7pm before ending by 11pm. Total snow accumulation of 3.8" to 4.5". I still expect this to trend lower with the 12z runs... this will be a highly elevation dependent event with the only chance at approaching the above levels being above 650 ft - as Steve noted above lower spots I would be surprised if lower elevations see any more than 2" of snow at most.

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Yep looking like a non event for most now. Paul in west chester and Kamu are in a decent spot though, they'll probably snag an inch or two. Lower Bucks/Montco/Philly S and E I would set my expectations for mood flakes at best at this point. It's already 40F in Trenton, up 6 degrees in the last hour, and the temp  probably going to soar above the forecasted high of 42. It's going to struggle flipping to snow along 95 except maybe towards the very end. I'll be surprised if we even get a coating. The winter weather advisory was the kiss of death just like on Dec. 1.

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12 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Yep looking like a non event for most now. Paul in west chester and Kamu are in a decent spot though, they'll probably snag an inch or two. Lower Bucks/Montco/Philly S and E I would set my expectations for mood flakes at best at this point. It's already 40F in Trenton, up 6 degrees in the last hour, and the temp  probably going to soar above the forecasted high of 42. It's going to struggle flipping to snow along 95 except maybe towards the very end. I'll be surprised if we even get a coating. The winter weather advisory was the kiss of death just like on Dec. 1.

Dew point is also sitting at 21 in Trenton..

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945 update from Mt Holly( you guys need to stop looking at HRRR here):

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM Update: Bumped up snow totals for late this evening
across northern Delmarva and the western Philly metro to better
match the latest hi-res guidance trends. The HRRR appears to be
an outlier as it is not strengthening the surface low fast
enough as it move offshore this evening. Additionally, the HRRR
is too warm and humid therefore will be largely discounted in
future forecast updates. It appears the NAM, its decedents, and
the CMC will be favored in future updates.
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