weatherlogix Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Every model is way north and west. Fun times 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaGrangewx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 One thing to keep in mind is the rgem specifically and the NAM to a degree are picking up on a very intense band. Initially the rgem had that band south but now 2 runs in a row it has cut right through orange and dutchess. Will be interesting to see how this continues to play out with modeling and then of course plays out with the event. The 40” totals are obviously overblown but in those bands 20+ maybe 24? Where ever that banding reaches up to, just north of it will probably have a pretty extreme cut off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Ugh. I'm having such a hard time betting against the GFS. The southerly solution has made the most sense to me for almost a week now, and this isn't 2010... the GFS is good. I'd definitely at least toss it in the stew to help balance out the ridiculous Canadian QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaGrangewx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t excited with tonight’s runs. Now the ukmet and cmc way north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 40 minutes ago, LaGrangewx said: I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t excited with tonight’s runs. Now the ukmet and cmc way north. The UK mid-levels were about as good as it gets for us. That model and the Euro are a killer duo when they're in lock-step... if the Euro shows a nice hit, I'll feel a lot more confident in the potential for double-digit totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Yup. The Euro will get it done - much better than 12z. Deform band rotting overhead as the low occludes and pulls east in the wee hours on Thursday. ~1.75" liquid along 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaGrangewx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Wow amazing 0z suite for our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, LaGrangewx said: Wow amazing 0z suite for our region. Yeah, if 6z holds serve I'll jettison the GFS and start delving into ratios and mesoscale features. I assume Albany puts us in 12-18" with the morning package. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Njweathered Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Perspective from Sussex County, NJ. NWS and 6z NAM spread some N&W love. Good luck everyone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Perspective from Sussex County, NJ. NWS and 6z NAM spread some N&W love. Good luck everyone Maybe I’m too far south now in MMU?Also, is everyone ok in this thread? Everyone seems... grounded and reasonable.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Njweathered Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, North and West said: Maybe I’m too far south now in MMU? Also, is everyone ok in this thread? Everyone seems... grounded and reasonable. . MMU looks amazing. Enjoy this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 hours ago, Juliancolton said: Ugh. I'm having such a hard time betting against the GFS. The southerly solution has made the most sense to me for almost a week now, and this isn't 2010... the GFS is good. I'd definitely at least toss it in the stew to help balance out the ridiculous Canadian QPF. It truly will be interesting to see how this plays out. You have to give the GFS credit for being consistent with the more southerly snows but it’s becoming increasingly difficult to believe ALL the three models are wrong. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 It truly will be interesting to see how this plays out. You have to give the GFS credit for being consistent with the more southerly snows but it’s becoming increasingly difficult to believe ALL the three models are wrong. Not to rain on anyone’s parade up there (no pun intended), but from my untrained experience, why would we believe that a cold high as strong as the one coming into play would give up against a relatively weaker low, and pushing really big totals pretty far north? TIA. (Not pushing for my own sake; believe me, I saw it first hand in February 2010, and some other storms way back when.)Only asking out of my experience from seeing these things for years, back to WeatherStar 2000 or whatever it was when TWC thrilled me with the dark red screen of death interrupting my regular programming.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 hour ago, North and West said: Maybe I’m too far south now in MMU? Also, is everyone ok in this thread? Everyone seems... grounded and reasonable. . Been shafted so many times I can’t let myself get excited until I see the white of its eyes. This happened only 6 years ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Been shafted so many times I can’t let myself get excited until I see the white of its eyes. This happened only 6 years ago.Oh yea. That one. I’m glad it doesn’t live rent-free in my weather memory.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 18 minutes ago, North and West said: Oh yea. That one. I’m glad it doesn’t live rent-free in my weather memory. . I’ll never get over macho grande. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 50 minutes ago, Hitman said: Been shafted so many times I can’t let myself get excited until I see the white of its eyes. This happened only 6 years ago. Oh how dare you Sir! @BxEngine please ban him now! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 33 minutes ago, North and West said: Oh yea. That one. I’m glad it doesn’t live rent-free in my weather memory. . I love that expression, been using it myself for years now, often asking people how much so and so pays them to rent the space you’re giving them in your head. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, IrishRob17 said: I love that expression, been using it myself for years now, often asking people how much so and so pays them to rent the space you’re giving them in your head. I’m not Irish but I did recently find this at my local liquor store. Excellent stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 hour ago, North and West said: Not to rain on anyone’s parade up there (no pun intended), but from my untrained experience, why would we believe that a cold high as strong as the one coming into play would give up against a relatively weaker low, and pushing really big totals pretty far north? TIA. (Not pushing for my own sake; believe me, I saw it first hand in February 2010, and some other storms way back when.) Only asking out of my experience from seeing these things for years, back to WeatherStar 2000 or whatever it was when TWC thrilled me with the dark red screen of death interrupting my regular programming. . You see that 12 from this mornings GFS run right over southern Orange County, we haven't seen anything close to that from GFS regarding this storm. It even has a 6 up past Kingston where it's been insistent in past runs accumulating snows wouldn't even make it that far north. We seem to be in a 12-24 inch range (from north to south in the HV) on every model now. I never spike the football until my yardstick goes in the ground to verify but after last nights 0Z suites and this mornings GFS I'm starting to breathe a little easier. Also remember this is 10:1 ratios, in the HV ratios should be more in the 12:1 to 14:1 range. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 15 minutes ago, Hitman said: I’m not Irish but I did recently find this at my local liquor store. Excellent stuff. Looks delicious! I can trace back some family to County Cork. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 GFS vs the world lol.. fun times incoming for the interior! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, snywx said: GFS vs the world lol.. fun times incoming for the interior! NAM inching north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: NAM inching north Catskills jack on the 12z NAM now lol. Still giving 20”+ from Orange County northward. Poor coasties 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 19 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: NAM inching north More like lurching north. The 6Z GFS going north with the heavier snows was the first sign, although many didn't seem to pick up on it or just plain ignored it. If the N trend continues and somehow I end up sleeting here in Highland Mills I'm done with weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Im ok w some sleet if we can get back to snow...helps the pack have a chance to make it to xmas... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, BxEngine said: Im ok w some sleet if we can get back to snow...helps the pack have a chance to make it to xmas... Within reason I would agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 40 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: NAM inching north Allllright, that's too tucked. That's how you really screw up your ratios for 4 out of 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaGrangewx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Crazy how 24hrs ago there was a real fear of suppression with this system. Knock on wood but that ship seems to have sailed at this point. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, LaGrangewx said: Crazy how 24hrs ago there was a real fear of suppression with this system. Knock on wood but that ship seems to have sailed at this point. and we still have 36 hours to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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