Thinksnow18 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 12z in...worst run through 108 yet. Less front end snow, more rain in the middle near the low. What I find truly intriguing is the HP over eastern Canada...if you roll through hours 96 through 108, it goes from Eastern Canada, to the mid Atlantic in 12 hours...that seems quite fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Through 132 hours only giving KBUF 4" KSYR 7". That's much less than at any point. I think the wed-thus system will play a big role in the eventual track for Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Another busted week? Lol Thursday looks mainly upslope to me, south of Syracuse and the tug.. Saturday could be a rainstorm soon..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2020 Author Share Posted January 14, 2020 I think this storm ends up being a non event for my area. A few inches max by Sunday would be my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: I think this storm ends up being a non event for my area. A few inches max by Sunday would be my guess. Agreed. At this point it changes the pattern I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2020 Author Share Posted January 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Agreed. At this point it changes the pattern I suppose. And then NW flow lake effect for days on end with little moisture. Wake me up in spring. Temps cold too, so Lake Erie temps are going to fall quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Well freak is next, then me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Gaaaaaaaahhhhhhhh...I am right on the line. One more run, and I'll be out. This winter blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Always finds a way to cut, at least this year.. Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 GEM much better than GFS FWIW which I know isn’t a ton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2020 Author Share Posted January 14, 2020 GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Yeah the gfs develops the secondary much later than the Canadian but unfortunately we know what usually verifies lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Ukmet is like the GFS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Late capture with the last system, which means very little at this juncture.. Always comes down to timing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 31 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: GEFS Not bad most are 6" for WNY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Late capture with the last system, which means very little at this juncture.. Always comes down to timing.. Modeling has been generally consistent with this aspect i think. A primary heading west of here, or overhead is never good news, i don't care what 4 or 5 day winter precip panels show. Fortunately, it's only Tuesday. Things can evolve differently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Not bad most are 6" for WNY The stripe of heavy snow, well into Ontario, is with the main system. The rest is lake effect combined with front end. A couple members look like they want to develop a secondary in time to save the northern zones (don’t hold your breath). At least the ground should be white this time next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Looks like the 12z euro wants to still keep the majority of the precip as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Just now, Syrmax said: Modeling has been generally consistent with this aspect i think. A primary heading west of here, or overhead is never good news, i don't care what 4 or 5 day winter precip panels show. Fortunately, it's only Tuesday. Things can evolve differently. Exactly. “but this storm is different “ nonsense never adds up. It’s track dependent. Always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2020 Author Share Posted January 14, 2020 Just now, rochesterdave said: Exactly. “but this storm is different “ nonsense never adds up. It’s track dependent. Always. It's not a cutter, it's a slider. It is different then your normal cutter. Most cutters you get zero snow. You have a area of low pressure running into a cold high, the front end thump could be substantial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 It's a different type of track for sure.. To me it's more like a Southwest flow event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 13 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: It's not a cutter, it's a slider. It is different then your normal cutter. Most cutters you get zero snow. You have a area of low pressure running into a cold high, the front end thump could be substantial. That's a good point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Euro came in South for Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Euro came in South for Thursday Quite a bit. Hoping this helps carve the path for the weekend. Seems the euro and GFS are inching closer to a middle ground... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 It’s a Colorado low. No? Anything that moves inside of us I refer to as a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 If we can get the ground covered with several inches on Thursday, it would make whatever happens over the weekend more tolerable. I don't think it will get warm enough Saturday to ruin much snowpack. Odds look excellent for at least snowcover by this time next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: If we can get the ground covered with several inches on Thursday, it would make whatever happens over the weekend more tolerable. I don't think it will get warm enough Saturday to ruin much snowpack. Odds look excellent for at least snowcover by this time next week. Agreed. If we can squeak out 2-3" on backside of Thurs storm and another 2-5" on weekend before any further LE, it'll look more like winter. I don't like having to rely on Sunday's backend of lake enhancement or whatever...but we can nickel and dime our way to decent totals by mid next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Euro is pretty far N and W. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, 96blizz said: Euro is pretty far N and W. Meh. It also was for Thursday first as well and has now come south...if that trend continues I expect Saturday to follow suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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