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Upstate/Eastern New York


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Buffalo:

Attention turns to the next system that will ride along the cold
front near western and north central NY. Strong, southwest flow will
supply abundant Gulf of Mexico moisture into the eastern third of
the Lower 48. Ensemble forecast systems are showing signals of PWATS
of +2 SD above normal Friday to Saturday. Guidance is similar in
tracking the deepening low along the cold front from the Central
Appalachians to Long Island. While this can keep us on the cold,
snowy side, the 850mb low may be further to the northwest. This may
bring enough warmer air aloft into the region causing a wintry
mix Saturday to Saturday night. A dry, cold will likely move
into the region behind this system with little lake response
expected.

Binghamton:

The low pressure system passing by well to the north then drags
a cold front into the region later Friday. This then becomes a
stationary boundary...with a large temperature gradient developing.
Significant model differences remain for the weekend...but
guidance does agree on some points. The overall set up is there
for strong moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.
This could lead to 1-2+ inches of QPF across the region. However,
there will also be an arctic Canadian high pressure center north
of Lake Superior and into Quebec. This will try to push low
level cold air down into the region at the same time; along and
north of the stationary boundary. Depending on the exact low
track (west, right over us or southeast of here) will have huge
implications for what types of weather we see this weekend.
These exact details are yet to be resolved...but it`s beginning
to look like parts of the area could see impacts...whether it`s
from ice, snow, heavy rains (or a combination of the three)
remains to be seen. Overall, with such a strong high pressure
center north, one would expect the system to perhaps shift a
little further south; bringing more of wintry mix to the area.
Please be sure to check back as will continue to monitor and
update forecasts for the weekend.
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43 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Insane amount of gulf moisture. Analogs show the signal too. It just started showing up, so will be interesting to see what next few days look like in modeling. 

Thats a lot of precip from 18z Saturday to 9z Sunday and much if that is frozen in one form or another.

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Kbgm

The flow turns west, then west northwest on Wednesday as a cold
front passes through the region. The cold air mass arriving
later on Wednesday will allow morning lows in the 20s to not
warm up too much by the afternoon. The re-enforcing air mass
will keep highs on Wednesday in the upper 20s to lower 30s. A
persistent w/nwly flow behind the upper low exiting to the
northeast will create favorable conditions for lake effect snow
through Wednesday night. 850mb temperatures -14 to -18 deg C...a
deep 10k ft mixed layer...modest low level instability and limited
shear in the BL should all be favorable for lake effect snow
bands into Central NY through the overnight hours. Outside of
the more persistent snow bands there is also the potential for
snow showers...and some could be briefly heavy. Several more
inches of snow is possible in a short period of time Wed
afternoon/evening. As temperatures cool snow to liquid ratios
increase rapidly to between 15-20:1 or greater
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2 hours ago, tim123 said:

Weekend systems has me really interested. Could be a high impact event. Somethings gotta give with this pattern. 

Yup, Thats an incredible amount of precip.  And just for shits, here is the GFS frozen output map.  You don't see numbers like that often.  Even dividing them by 2 still yields impressive totals.    Lets see if it can hold for more than 1 run.  

Capture.PNG.24aeb5c2f4d6267f265480d5dac5fd25.PNG

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This is exactly what I was talking about the other day. Storms can appear out of nowhere. Screw the long term. We have a real winter storm to track in the medium (almost short) range. 
Crazy how that can happen. 
Obviously, I’m hoping for snow but you can’t discount the possibility of sleet, the least consequential of all precip types. 

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