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Rtd208

January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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52 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Low snow cover doesnt mean anything 

2007

Screenshot_20200106-194159_Chrome.jpg.ed755a3eb7005d16caa03763213dfd591.jpg

It means we have the lowest amount of snow at this point since 2007. His post wasnt discussing the future. Relax.

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8 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

It means we have the lowest amount of snow at this point since 2007. His post wasnt discussing the future. Relax.

I'm relaxed 

You should be also :)

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A storm responsible for bringing snow to parts of the Middle Atlantic region will bring some rain and wet snow to parts of the region overnight. Parts of New Jersey and Long Island could pick up 1"-3" snow in a few spots. Most of the region will likely see 0.5" or less.

Snowfall amounts included:

Baltimore: 1.5"; Harrisburg: 2.9"; Sterling: 2.0"; and, Washington, DC (DCA): Trace (0.5" was reported in Alexandria).

New York City will finish with a mean temperature near 41.0° during the first week of January once the daily low temperature is reached near midnight. Since 1869, there were 23 prior cases when the first week of January had a mean temperature of 40° or above in New York City. In 17 (74%), January wound up warmer than normal and in 12 (52%), January had a mean temperature of 35° or above. The average monthly temperature for January for all 23 cases was 36.0° (median temperature: 35.6°).

A short-duration fairly sharp cold shot is possible tomorrow and Thursday. The approach and passage of the Arctic front could trigger snow showers and even some heavier snow squalls tomorrow.

The light snowfall unfolding today and tonight is consistent with historic experience during very strong AO+ patterns during the first half of January. Based on the forecast strongly positive AO, the probability of a significant (6" or greater snowstorm) for the major cities of the Middle Atlantic region during the first 10 days of January is low. Since 1950, the biggest snowfall for that region when the AO was +2.000 or above during the January 1-15 period occurred during January 14-15, 1954 when Philadelphia received 3.0" snow and New York City picked up 2.0". Boston has had numerous 6" or greater snowstorms during such cases, including one 10" or greater snowstorm. Therefore, the risk of significant snow would likely be greatest over New England assuming this relationship holds (no significant offsetting variables).

Following the brief cold shot, ridging with warmer than normal temperatures will develop and persist through at least mid-month. There is a growing possibility that temperatures could soar into the 60s this weekend even into southern New England.

Beyond that, there is the potential that the closing part of the month could see a colder pattern develop. The progression of the MJO and state of the teleconnections will determine the pattern evolution for the second half of the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around January 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions.

The SOI was +5.00 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.662. That was the highest AO figure since December 23, 2016 when the AO was +3.807.

No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through January 15. Following some warming, the upper stratosphere will cool late in the period. Wave 2 activity will remain suppressed through mid-January. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS.

On January 6, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.591 (RMM). The January 5-adjusted amplitude was 0.904.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 84% probability of a warmer than normal January.

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2 minutes ago, Enigma said:

I think we can write off the next 2 weeks. 

Definitely  next week but winter is looking to return by MLK week.

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The next 8 days are averaging 43degs., or about 10egs. AN.

Month to date is +8.2[41.2].       Should be about +9.1[42.1] by the 16th.

33* here at 6am.      40* by Noon.     42* by 3pm(high)  Down quickly to 37* shortly after 3:45pm.

Nothing happening till the 17th. on any model.       Tomorrow should be the first BN day of the winter.

GFS is -2 for the period of the 17th-23rd, but still no real snow event due to continued lack of phasing with polar jet.  The only warm day is when it could snow.

 

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NYC already in the top 10 warmest January 1st to 15th periods before the warmest temperatures arrive.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Jan 1 to Jan 15
Missing Count
1 2007-01-15 46.4 0
2 1932-01-15 44.0 0
3 1950-01-15 43.6 0
4 1907-01-15 43.5 0
5 1998-01-15 43.3 0
6 2005-01-15 42.2 0
7 1937-01-15 42.1 0
8 1930-01-15 41.7 0
9 1890-01-15 41.4 0
10 2020-01-15 41.2 8
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53 minutes ago, bluewave said:

NYC already in the top 10 warmest January 1st to 15th periods before the warmest temperatures arrive.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Jan 1 to Jan 15
Missing Count
1 2007-01-15 46.4 0
2 1932-01-15 44.0 0
3 1950-01-15 43.6 0
4 1907-01-15 43.5 0
5 1998-01-15 43.3 0
6 2005-01-15 42.2 0
7 1937-01-15 42.1 0
8 1930-01-15 41.7 0
9 1890-01-15 41.4 0
10 2020-01-15 41.2 8

hmm so in years 1932 1950 and 1907 when their was no global climate change january 1-15 were warmer..

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1 hour ago, jfklganyc said:

31F for our “cold” morning

Just killed a mosquito in my kitchen

If that doesnt sum up this winter...I dont know what does

Saw an article that great lakes ice cover trails even last year...LOL.    Stores have stocks of ice melt, snowblowers, sleds that are just sitting there.   On the bright side Jan heating bills will be lower especially those with Nat Gas

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1 hour ago, jfklganyc said:

31F for our “cold” morning

Just killed a mosquito in my kitchen

If that doesnt sum up this winter...I dont know what does

Just wait till the weekend, completely absurd departures possible. We may see a 70F reading under cloudy skies in mid January...that's insane.

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29 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

hmm so in years 1932 1950 and 1907 when their was no global climate change january 1-15 were warmer..

That 1932 record warmest January still stands for NYC. It’s the only winter month that hasn’t set a new warmest record since 2015.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/warmcoldmonths.pdf

Top 3 warmest winter months in NYC

Dec

50.8...2015

44.1...2001

43.8...1984

Jan

43.2....1932

41.4....1990/1950

40.9....1913/2006

Feb

42.0...2018

41.6...2017

40.9...2012

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That's a big change on the GE FS rmm plots for the mjo. Takes it through 6 very Amplified almost to phase 7 at the end. Yesterday had the wave dying off in six and looping back towards five. Also if guidance is remotely correct starting next week Thursday we look to more seasonable to below-normal temperatures while the mjo is still in  its warm phases

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Also of note if long-range guidance is correct it doesn't look like we go below normal and dry but it looks very active love the lower Heights just north of Hawaii in the extended. Maybe we can salvage part of January after all

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13 minutes ago, binbisso said:

That's a big change on the GE FS rmm plots for the mjo. Takes it through 6 very Amplified almost to phase 7 at the end. Yesterday had the wave dying off in six and looping back towards five. Also if guidance is remotely correct starting next week Thursday we look to more seasonable to below-normal temperatures while the mjo is still in  its warm phases

We can always get transient cool shots behind cold fronts in phase 6. But root for the GEFS to keep going  to phase 8 by the start of February. 
 

8F397681-1680-41EE-9AE9-8EEA98CF71C2.gif.62cce0e96dc670db6c209f6e30495cad.gif

 

 

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7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We can always get transient cool shots behind cold fronts in phase 6. But root for the GEFS to keep going  to phase 8 by the start of February. 
 

8F397681-1680-41EE-9AE9-8EEA98CF71C2.gif.62cce0e96dc670db6c209f6e30495cad.gif

 

 

Yeah it will be great to get phase 8 heading into our snowiest month should make February very interesting

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13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We can always get transient cool shots behind cold fronts in phase 6. But root for the GEFS to keep going  to phase 8 by the start of February. 
 

8F397681-1680-41EE-9AE9-8EEA98CF71C2.gif.62cce0e96dc670db6c209f6e30495cad.gif

 

 

 

Ahem.

 

Now you believe me huh 

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7 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

 

Ahem.

 

Now you believe me huh 

Believe you? I have been saying that the EPS was probably too weak going into phase 6. So we probably get a 6 looking composite around the 17-24th. That is a transition phase with lingering influences from 5 with the -PNA. If we go phase 7 last week of January, then we get improvements in the EPO and PNA. But the real prize people are hoping for would be getting to 8 first week of February. Would match our recent backloaded winters theme. Hopefully, this works out.

That’s actually one of the EPS biases. It tends to be too weak with MJO 6 after phase 5. Probably another reason that we could see plenty of model volatility after phase 5.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0862.1

80C26980-7BC3-49AE-BE1E-E9623B350616.gif.065238b61d3dc13d219f301b34a5cbe6.gif

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Just now, bluewave said:

Believe you? I have been saying that the EPS was probably too weak going into phase 6. So we probably get a 6 looking composite around the 17-24th. That is a transition phase with lingering influences from 5 with the -PNA. If we go phase 7 last week of January, then we get improvements in the EPO and PNA. But the real prize people are hoping for would be getting to 8 first week of February. Would match our recent backloaded winters theme. Hopefully, this works out.

A trip through 7/8/1/2 would be the holy grail-still in lala land though but better trend last night.

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3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

A trip through 7/8/1/2 would be the holy grail-still in lala land though but better trend last night.

The key is getting the successful transition from 7-8. But we have plenty of time to see how things play out.

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11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Believe you? I have been saying that the EPS was probably too weak going into phase 6. So we probably get a 6 looking composite around the 17-24th. That is a transition phase with lingering influences from 5 with the -PNA. If we go phase 7 last week of January, then we get improvements in the EPO and PNA. But the real prize people are hoping for would be getting to 8 first week of February. Would match our recent backloaded winters theme. Hopefully, this works out.

That’s actually one of the EPS biases. It tends to be too weak with MJO 6 after phase 5. Probably another reason that we could see plenty of model volatility after phase 5.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0862.1

80C26980-7BC3-49AE-BE1E-E9623B350616.gif.065238b61d3dc13d219f301b34a5cbe6.gif

 
  On 1/6/2020 at 11:13 AM, bluewave said:

The risk for late January is that the the forcing gets stuck near phase 6 like the EPS shows. While these post day 10 forecasts can be low skill, the record SST’s west of the date line may support such an outcome. But a later  MJO pulse in February could make it closer to phase 8. We’ll just have to wait and see.

 

Yes you had a strong p 6 but the above stalled it there. 

While I was arguing that we were heading into p7 and away from p6 , I thought this to be your position.
 

My apologies , has this since changed ?  Do you know see us easily getting in p7 and heading on into p8 like I did/ do ? 

 

 

 

 

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Once again we keyed on the fake loop on the GEFS 

 

1637387836_6C501012-D0DB-427B-9090-295E5F950F61.gif.484fd0b84d580068bab774c2e2f9e3cdJAN7MJO.gif.8501aad131700a89f03546bf6f6e3baa.gif

 

 

We will strongly go into p7 and head into p8 

 

Phase diagram of the MJO index from the operational GFS

One only has to look at the Jan 1 - 15 period when the MJO in p4 reaches an amplitude of 1.5 SD 9x out of 10 the MJO will circle into p8.

And as I pointed out over the last few days in here that is where we are going.

The EPS punts the trough off the WC by day 9 now. We are now inside 10 days, the GEFS is just slower but has finally come around.

So to the " winters dead crowd " and those who were on wait until  Feb 15, I think you can see that this gets back and gets back here before then. 

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, PB-99 said:
 
  On 1/6/2020 at 11:13 AM, bluewave said:

The risk for late January is that the the forcing gets stuck near phase 6 like the EPS shows. While these post day 10 forecasts can be low skill, the record SST’s west of the date line may support such an outcome. But a later  MJO pulse in February could make it closer to phase 8. We’ll just have to wait and see.

 

Yes you had a strong p 6 but the above stalled it there. 

While I was arguing that we were heading into p6 and away from p6 , I thought this to be your position.
 

My apologies , has this since changed ?  Do you know see us easily getting in p7 and heading on into p8 like I did/ do ? 

 

 

 

 

I was talking about the 17-24th period. So it looks like the models are correcting stronger with phase 6 now. We need to get it over to phase 7 January 25-31 so we can work on improving the EPO and PNA. That’s why I mentioned a possible 8 for February.

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25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The key is getting the successful transition from 7-8. But we have plenty of time to see how things play out.

If the MJO doesn't help us out, can we look to the EPO hopefully going negative at some point? 

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17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I was talking about the 17-24th period. So it looks like the models are correcting stronger with phase 6 now. We need to get it over to phase 7 January 25-31 so we can work on improving the EPO and PNA. That’s why I mentioned a possible 8 for February.

You also have to consider the lagged response, which is why I favor mid Feb for colder weather. 

This assumes the wave keeps progressing and doesn't slow down in 6/7.

If it does slow down then the cold would arrive late Feb and into March, which lines up with our late winter/early spring cold/snow of the past decade.

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10 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

If the MJO doesn't help us out, can we look to the EPO hopefully going negative at some point? 

We can get help from the -EPO as soon as we get closer to phase 7 in late January. Here is what the MJO did the last 2 times we had such an amplified phase 4-5 passage in January. Both times we eventually got over closer to phase 8 in February. 

6B817BC8-5EAC-4FCA-8A39-CD02FF5BB7D5.gif.0c4f77d31b29d4f744956193c3652abd.gif

0C65BD34-BE87-4C99-8B19-6C5B96318991.gif.0e32e9fd0f0611f336864313b27e27fe.gif

 

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37 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I was talking about the 17-24th period. So it looks like the models are correcting stronger with phase 6 now. We need to get it over to phase 7 January 25-31 so we can work on improving the EPO and PNA. That’s why I mentioned a possible 8 for February.

 

Ahh ok I read " late Jan ". Kool , we seem to agree now. 

 

Here is my position once again, we will be heading into 7 and then into p8 as I have been posting in here since last Thursday. At that time the MJO Rimm plots were trying to fade the MJO back around into the COD and the concerns at  that time  ( not you ) was that were going to circle back to into p4/5/6 because of the warm water N of Australia. 

That was easily pegged as garbage and tossed aside. 

 

Now p7 doesn`t bring the trough into the east out body and soul in fact it`s Ttrough is probably just east of the Rockies but I think what people kept missing was that the Neg the EPS was ejecting wasn`t some pig pac poorly sourced negative that once east of the Rockies would just end up down sloping warm PAC air in the east.

Typically they are, that`s why p7 isn`t BN and one would have to wait for the typical p8 response. However and another silly argument by some ( again not you ) was what that there had to be " a lag ", again that was also pointed out as garbage because that piece of the TPV the EPS ejects is real LLC air and that undercuts the ridge starting on d9, you can see that as the 0 line is down in N/C , by day 15 it`s in S/C. 

It is why the EPS was faster weakening the ridge in the means.  So what does this all mean ? You will start to see the a more favorable 500 by day 9 now.

That doesn`t always mean " snow " but surely the suppression of the SE RIDGE, the end to the plus 10 to plus 20 we have experienced during this 30 day period and a N regime at 2 meter. ( late Jan N is all you need ) .

 

 But the upper air pattern gets better and the point being driven home here for a week by me was, winter was not over ,  the SE ridge would get muted and we should return to a more N late Jan pattern by Jan 20.

Which will lead into the core of winter Feb idea. 

 

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13 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

You also have to consider the lagged response, which is why I favor mid Feb for colder weather. 

This assumes the wave keeps progressing and doesn't slow down in 6/7.

If it does slow down then the cold would arrive late Feb and into March, which lines up with our late winter/early spring cold/snow of the past decade.

 

Zero lag. 

And the MJO doesn`t slow.

Non of this has any support, it`s complete nonsense. 

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