forkyfork Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 8 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: The 12Z ECWMF is increasing the odds for record warmth this weekend, with a broader and drier warm sector around here. There are sizeable trends in the track of the low through the Midwest, with the main frontal forcing for precip now shifted farther N and W of NYC. Low-level flow is more southwesterly, which may allow temperatures to approach 70 Sunday once the front clears. it doesn't look mixed enough on saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: it doesn't look mixed enough on saturday. yeah, quite a thick layer of clouds is probably the culprit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Still looking like a sick puppy: As for snow. I never try to predict how much snow we are NOT going to get! But the GFS Cobb Method is 0" and the NAM Cobb is 1.3". Now do you feel any better? The next accidental cold shot is near the 17th. it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 No surprise that the SE ridge is correcting stronger this weekend with such an extreme MJO 4-5 event. New run Old run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: No surprise that the SE ridge is correcting stronger this weekend with such an extreme MJO 4-5 event. New run Old run I see that system over the weekend is trending drier as the storm track is trending even further west and north of us. Really more like a summer pattern, not even a spring pattern. You're going to see thunderstorms all the way into Canada! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 12 minutes ago, bluewave said: No surprise that the SE ridge is correcting stronger this weekend with such an extreme MJO 4-5 event. New run Old run That's because the euro has a cutter. Gfs is less impressive with the warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Canadian ensembles correct to even more trough in the N/E by day 11 and all the way through day 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 And the EPS crushes the ridge by day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 25 minutes ago, bluewave said: No surprise that the SE ridge is correcting stronger this weekend with such an extreme MJO 4-5 event. This is the reality that some don't seem to understand. I think any significant change is still weeks away. We'll see if the MJO will push through. My thoughts are that latter Feb and March probably end up colder than normal similar to past few years. There's a nice source region of cold building to our north that should impact us eventually. Marches, like Novembers, have also skewed colder over the past several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I see that system over the weekend is trending drier as the storm track is trending even further west and north of us. Really more like a summer pattern, not even a spring pattern. You're going to see thunderstorms all the way into Canada! A near record +5SD jet streak over 200KT along the gradient in SE Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: This is the reality that some don't seem to understand. I think any significant change is still weeks away. We'll see if the MJO will push through. My thoughts are that latter Feb and March probably end up colder than normal similar to past few years. There's a nice source region of cold building to our north that should impact us eventually. Marches, like Novembers, have also skewed colder over the past several years. The EPS and GEPS say 10/11 + Where are you seeing " weeks " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 3 minutes ago, PB-99 said: The EPS and GEPS say 10/11 + Where are you seeing " weeks " the main argument there is whether the models are rushing the pattern change-we've seen before where it ends up being later. We're still 10 days away, if this gets to day 7 I'm more inclined to jump on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Weeks away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, Brian5671 said: the main argument there is whether the models are rushing the pattern change-we've seen before where it ends up being later. We're still 10 days away, if this gets to day 7 I'm more inclined to jump on board There`s no argument, the guidance is quicker now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 PV getting stronger-never good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Another adjustment 3 runs of more trough in the east. Now the trough wants to dig into the midsection b d 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, PB-99 said: There`s no argument, the guidance is quicker now. it remains 11 days away...how good has guidance been 11-15 days? I'd like to see this move up to day 6-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: it remains 11 days away...how good has guidance been 11-15 days? I'd like to see this move up to day 6-8 Huh, the euro is now drilling the trough into the midsection at day 10- not day 12 - not day 15 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 26 minutes ago, Snow88 said: That's because the euro has a cutter. Gfs is less impressive with the warmth. Hey if it's going to be warm, much better if it's warm and dry and 70 as opposed to rain and 55! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, PB-99 said: Huh, the euro is now drilling the trough into the midsection at day 10- not day 12 - not day 15 lol let's see if we get a trough on the east coast right after that, that would be good for winter weather around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 @Brian5671 you will warm day 3 - 9 and then the EPS has accelerated the change to winter regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: let's see if we get a trough on the east coast right after that, that would be good for winter weather around here. You had it Nov 1 - Dec 14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, PB-99 said: You had it Nov 1 - Dec 14. Yes but that was a pattern that was bad for the coast. It was good for areas to the far northwest of us. You need better blocking around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, PB-99 said: @Brian5671 you will warm day 3 - 9 and then the EPS has accelerated the change to winter regime. that is not a good pattern. any storm that amplifies is going to cut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, LibertyBell said: Yes but that was a pattern that was bad for the coast. It was good for areas to the far northwest of us. same sensible weather as last winter-cutters and inland runners.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, forkyfork said: that is not a good pattern. any storm that amplifies is going to cut cold dry to warm wet and back to cold dry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, Brian5671 said: same sensible weather as last winter-cutters and inland runners.... yes and useless cold in between when its dry and sunny lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 9 minutes ago, forkyfork said: that is not a good pattern. any storm that amplifies is going to cut Fork, there`s a lot of HP day 11 - 14 over HB . Certainly not a KU look , but 540 thickness with - 5 at 850 by day 10 ends the torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Yes but that was a pattern that was bad for the coast. It was good for areas to the far northwest of us. Because it was November and your departures of - 5 still don`t get it done on the coastal plain without blocking that early. There was a trough in the means at 500 because you were in the cold phases. Now what does that pattern do in late Jan to Mid Feb with where N are at that time ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 minute ago, PB-99 said: Fork, there`s a lot of HP day 11 - 14 over HB . Certainly not a KU look , but 540 thickness with - 5 at 850 by day 10 ends the torch. any storm that cuts west of us could easily bring in more record warmth. look at that trough to our west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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