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MAG5035

Central PA - Late Dec 2019/Jan 2020

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

LOL, no doubt.  But the fake snow discussion has always been a fun one for me as it has come and gone on here (and other boards)  for decades now so I always jump at a chance to speak to it.  LOL

I fall on fake side as well lol

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3 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

And CTP stated on Twitter this morning that today's low temp will be the coldest for at least the next 7 days. 

Funny...the Euro muted Sun, Tue and Wed to only 50's with possibly some upper 40's  but now suggests 70's is a real possibility in the southern part of the LSV on Monday.  

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57 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm stunned that you haven't seen the ongoing conversation between him and Hoffman. For it seems like weeks they've been debating snowfall averages, means, medians, bad winters, really bad winters, really really bad winters, etc. And Hoffman patiently keeps on engaging him. (most of this has been occurring in their banter thread) 

Dude that guy isn’t right lol...sauss and I were in a thread on political side and he like posts every issue about his personal life in there haha.

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Just now, daxx said:

I will take the 12z Euro for where I'm gonna be next week.  Most if not all of it will be real snow Bubbler. I'm sure it will be different at 00z.

Good thing it is real snow otherwise we might not count it (LOL).  If you need help with snow maps let me know!  The most interesting, in a sad way, about the Euro is that it does not go below freezing in the LSV for a full week starting this coming Sunday.  

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3 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm stunned that you haven't seen the ongoing conversation between him and Hoffman. For it seems like weeks they've been debating snowfall averages, means, medians, bad winters, really bad winters, really really bad winters, etc. And Hoffman patiently keeps on engaging him. (most of this has been occurring in their banter thread) 

I just stopped over there and the discussion is about plants and flowering too early.  LOL.  I saw a long post from the war reenactor at the top but it was too long for me to want to read it right now. 

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42 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I just stopped over there and the discussion is about plants and flowering too early.  LOL.  I saw a long post from the war reenactor at the top but it was too long for me to want to read it right now. 

Honestly daffodils might poke fully through next week. 

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Just now, canderson said:

Honestly daffodils might poke fully through next week. 

We have actually had a couple daffodils come up already and then freeze but not ready to give up on winter yet.  Most of next week is pretty much a punt at this point but still 3-4 weeks of decent climo left.  It seems like a good chance MDT will set one or two daily high records between Mon and Thur.  On the point of whether the weather is warmer now that in the past the record high for Wednesday is 74 in 1890.

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

We have actually had a couple daffodils come up already and then freeze but not ready to give up on winter yet.  Most of next week is pretty much a punt at this point but still 3-4 weeks of decent climo left.  It seems like a good chance MDT will set one or two daily high records between Mon and Thur.  On the point of whether the weather is warmer now that in the past the record high for Wednesday is 74 in 1890.

Imagine that...global warming back in 1890 

 

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The end of next week has my attention.

After our early week warm up, the cold will press & just pushed further south  & east by Thursday. Right now, most models have the boundary stalling out near the PA-MD line. Then, a series of storms look to ride up the boundary between Thursday night & Saturday. A few models today gave northern & western PA a good amount of snow, & brought mixed precip to Central PA. We don’t need much of an additional push south & east of the boundary to put most of us on the wintry side.

Hopefully we are on the right side for one of these. It will be interesting to see how things unfold over the next few days.

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Also, the EPO could potentially be our saving grace. If it’s forecast on the 12z EPS today of heading toward neutral & slightly negative comes to fruition, then that could help our cause in this boundary type of pattern that is starting later next week.

C9EDF84B-BE8D-4FBD-BB63-1146D3FA8EE7.png

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37 minutes ago, canderson said:

Can someone explain what the hell happened to this system this weekend? It’s just like - poof be gone for anyone. 

@psuhoffman had a great explanation earlier today in the Mid Atlantic thread.

To sum up, nothing came together that needed to in an overall pattern that was not supportive for a coastal storm. 

I’ve moved on to the boundary chance later next week. Hopefully we are on the right side.

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49 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

@psuhoffman had a great explanation earlier today in the Mid Atlantic thread.

To sum up, nothing came together that needed to in an overall pattern that was not supportive for a coastal storm. 

I’ve moved on to the boundary chance later next week. Hopefully we are on the right side.

Wouldn't the right side of a boundary layer be the warm side? :P

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2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

@psuhoffman had a great explanation earlier today in the Mid Atlantic thread.

To sum up, nothing came together that needed to in an overall pattern that was not supportive for a coastal storm. 

I’ve moved on to the boundary chance later next week. Hopefully we are on the right side.

Even when we are destined to lose, we don’t even get to play the game. 

That kind of season. 

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Pic posted in the Carlisle Newspaper showing a man standing on the recently cleared trolley tracks after the early February "Blizzard of 1920".  The article includes a veiled complaint that the American Model at that time (Groundhog) misled them.  Hit X to close nag box that comes up and article is still available to read. 

 

https://cumberlink.com/news/local/history/tour_through_time/tour-through-time-blizzard-a-century-ago-buried-carlisle-and/article_85a50d8e-3593-5b5f-951a-77b64cf52293.html#utm_source=cumberlink.com&utm_campaign=%2Fnewsletter-templates%2Fnews-alert&utm_medium=PostUp&utm_content=76d55c3450cb85adbb30161eeb9e70e4f90e8d7d

 

image.png.d451695ff8f8bc8d8d65f47c7088767c.png

 

 

 

 

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Very respected poster on this entire forum (Don Sutherland) posted his updated thoughts for February this morning. His thoughts covered the entire general mid-Atlantic area. Among his thoughts are that we'll likely experience above to perhaps much above normal temperatures and below to perhaps much below normal snowfall. 

Those are his thoughts and they are for the entire month. This was posted in the NYC forum. 

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I don't know why I don't read the MA thread more often. They have a list of dead ****s. As for Sutherland's forecast of doom, I'm at the point where sunshine and baseball just sounds appealing. That'll change when the pattern looks promising, but I don't see that happening. Play ball. 

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7 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

I don't know why I don't read the MA thread more often. They have a list of dead ****s. As for Sutherland's forecast of doom, I'm at the point where sunshine and baseball just sounds appealing. That'll change when the pattern looks promising, but I don't see that happening. Play ball. 

I wouldn't have agreed with you if you said that 24 hours ago. Last night I had an employee event for the Barnstormers and it was nice sitting in the skybox looking out over the field.

I'm getting that itch.

But I still want snow!

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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Very respected poster on this entire forum (Don Sutherland) posted his updated thoughts for February this morning. His thoughts covered the entire general mid-Atlantic area. Among his thoughts are that we'll likely experience above to perhaps much above normal temperatures and below to perhaps much below normal snowfall. 

Those are his thoughts and they are for the entire month. 

I went back to 1980 and did not see any months where 3 of the first 5 days of February had highs near 60 and lows in the 40's and 50's.  Euro has wavered back on forth on how warm it will actually get but potential for a fairly rare warm spell considering the warm night time lows.1990 and 1991 were also fairly warm but lows were in the 20's and 30's.  

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3 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

At this rate, I fully expect the groundhog to see his shadow and then die from heat exhaustion a half an hour later. 

Yea, if you start sweating while dancing to the Pennsylvania Polka do you really need the groundhogs opinion on winter?

 

 

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Here's the Monday through Wednesday forecast...

Monday
A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly sunny, with a high near 59. Breezy, with a west southwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 33. Breezy, with a west wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 55. North wind around 5 mph becoming east in the morning.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 34. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north northeast in the evening.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 58. Calm wind becoming west southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
For my mom's backyard in Sun City (Phoenix) AZ.
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49 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Here's an idea.  Let's rename this thread.  It's February tomorrow and maybe it will bring us luck.  Certainly can't be any worse than it's been.

Yea we’re due for a new thread anyways, we did get a whole month out of this one. 

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