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meatwad

Pittsburgh PA Area Rest of fall and Winter 2019-2020 thread

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9 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said:

Not familiar with the HRDPS accuracy, but it shows rates in spots as hi as 3"/hr early tomorrow morning.

Could be some brief 0.1-0.2 mile visibility on the roads.

Yeah I feel like its overdone but let's just see what the hi rez models do now because the global's are useless at this range. I would love for those rates to verify. We don't usually get to see those kind of rates so even as progress as this system is it would atleast be interesting. 

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It's not the most ideal scenario by any means, but the inside track this low is supposed to take through eastern PA should be sufficient enough to keep the Pittsburgh area in some decent precip for a bit after the changeover. I think Pittsburgh metro should manage at least a couple inches but I do believe the best snowfall may reside in a line just east running up the Laurels thru Indiana/Punxy on up into Northern PA. Higher areas around the metro probably do a bit better accumulation wise but the cold air coming in with the developing low moving from VA into eastern PA should provide a pretty clean changeover for everyone. That HRDPS can be a bit too wound up with it's precip rates but the dynamics present offer the opportunity for a period of decent snowfall rates. Placement/coverage of the eventual precip area generated from the deepening low and the track of said low will have to be watched closely to see if this under or overachieves. Both options are on the table in western PA.  

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3 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

It's not the most ideal scenario by any means, but the inside track this low is supposed to take through eastern PA should be sufficient enough to keep the Pittsburgh area in some decent precip for a bit after the changeover. I think Pittsburgh metro should manage at least a couple inches but I do believe the best snowfall may reside in a line just east running up the Laurels thru Indiana/Punxy on up into Northern PA. Higher areas around the metro probably do a bit better accumulation wise but the cold air coming in with the developing low moving from VA into eastern PA should provide a pretty clean changeover for everyone. That HRDPS can be a bit too wound up with it's precip rates but the dynamics present offer the opportunity for a period of decent snowfall rates. Placement/coverage of the eventual precip area generated from the deepening low and the track of said low will have to be watched closely to see if this under or overachieves. Both options are on the table in western PA.  

Thanks MAG always appreciate a professional's oppinion. Hoping for an overachiever 

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16 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Thanks MAG always appreciate a professional's oppinion. Hoping for an overachiever 

Me too haha. I hope somebody overachieves... I have a different set of problems to contend with over on this side of the Laurels with this one. Right now I think KPIT at 12.7" is going to keep its lead over the 10.8" I have to date. I only need about 40" more to get to average for the season lol. 

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10 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Me too haha. I hope somebody overachieves... I have a different set of problems to contend with over on this side of the Laurels with this one. Right now I think KPIT at 12.7" is going to keep its lead over the 10.8" I have to date. I only need about 40" more to get to average for the season lol. 

Thanks for hopping over to our page Mike-you always have a ton of knowledge!

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Just now, ChalkHillSnowNut said:

Almost in NOWcasting-I’d prefer to see what the HRRR is showing

Which shows the heaviest snow to the east. 

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2 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Which shows the heaviest snow to the east. 

Yes why I’m looking for consolation in the euro lol

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3 minutes ago, dj3 said:

Yes why I’m looking for consolation in the euro lol

Haha well let's see what the other short range models say. HRRR isn't always accurate. 

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3 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Haha well let's see what the other short range models say. HRRR isn't always accurate. 

I think my Pittsburgh peeps are gonna be happy tomorrow morning-finally something to reward us for all the crap winter so far....over performer you guys!! C’mon!!!!

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SREF plumes are up to a mean of over 4" now, compared to 2.5" earlier.

sref2620.thumb.png.d35ab7f81c4c3730721cac04616ee092.png

Meanwhile, the HRDPS is a pretty good hit for us (6-10"), though the model name always makes me think it's derpy.  Not sure it's all that valuable, just another possible solution.

hrdps-2620.thumb.png.5065d2ccc9b9b2b790e6effd4b414c82.png

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This really looks like a brief window of heavy snow. I’ll take it but man what could have been if we had some cold air 

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2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

0z HRRR dropping. 1-2 inches over pittsburgh...every direction 50 miles from us 2-4 inches. Can’t make this up.

Looks like a pretty uniform 4-6+ over Westmoreland County. Shifted from where that heavy band was setting up about 24 hours ago with most models 

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Sorry I am a little late to the party.. Should at the very least be a fun one tonight. Still waiting on the 21z SREFs, but the 15z kicked out 4in and about a 50% chance of 1"/hr rates around 7am. Id take that in a heartbeat.

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That interesting hole in the HRRR that seems to be right over our area has to be an error. I think the snow totals are a little low because there seems to be a struggle to be transition 100% over to snow. The PType map is showing freezing rain still in the area around 10z. However, looking at the sounding, I don't think FZR is falling during that time. Not sure what the HRRR is finding right there.

Screen Shot 2020-02-06 at 8.49.47 PM.png

Screen Shot 2020-02-06 at 8.50.29 PM.png

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13 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

That interesting hole in the HRRR that seems to be right over our area has to be an error. I think the snow totals are a little low because there seems to be a struggle to be transition 100% over to snow. The PType map is showing freezing rain still in the area around 10z. However, looking at the sounding, I don't think FZR is falling during that time. Not sure what the HRRR is finding right there.

Screen Shot 2020-02-06 at 8.49.47 PM.png

Screen Shot 2020-02-06 at 8.50.29 PM.png

Nah. It knows what’s up. 

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24 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

That interesting hole in the HRRR that seems to be right over our area has to be an error. I think the snow totals are a little low because there seems to be a struggle to be transition 100% over to snow. The PType map is showing freezing rain still in the area around 10z. However, looking at the sounding, I don't think FZR is falling during that time. Not sure what the HRRR is finding right there.

Screen Shot 2020-02-06 at 8.49.47 PM.png

Screen Shot 2020-02-06 at 8.50.29 PM.png

01z fills that hole in :ee:

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11 minutes ago, north pgh said:

01z fills that hole in :ee:

Nope somehow it just disappears once it gets into Agh county. 

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22 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Nope somehow it just disappears once it gets into Agh county. 

That's the nice thing about the HRRR, if you don't like what you see just wait an hour.:lol:

Really, that band is pretty narrow, and looks like it wants to setup right over or just to the east of Allegheny county. That small of a margin of error is going to be hard for models to nail down. 

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I think regardless tomorrow morning’s commute will be a nightmare. Obviously not the same setup but there was a storm last year we got 3 or 4 inches, but it came at like an inch an hour rated starting at 5 am? Was a total mess. I’ll probably delay heading to work if it all goes to hell.

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Changeover occurred between 330 and 4 AM.  Have what looks to be an inch or so thus far, boundary might be setting up east, but the snow side of this system looks more robust (for now) than expected.  We'll see when bombogensis occurs how frontogenic forcing interplays with the current shield.

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1 hour ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said:

Looks like you all in Allegheny county have been ripping for awhile-still raining here with a ping here and there

About 2” so far - precip shield still seems pretty robust

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