jwilson Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 26 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: So this actually makes me sad. Since 01/01/2011 here are some stats We've had seven (SEVEN! --> Thats it!) single days that have 5.0" of snow or more. We've had 18 snowfalls of 6+" over a 3 day stretch (the data shows 23, but i eliminated duplicate storms over a different 3 day period). It was the only way i could think of to get close to what you wanted to see. 18 storms in 10 years. 1.8 storms a year of 6+" Unfortunately, though it seems like we haven't had that many -- trust me, i'm in the same mindset. NWS Pittsburgh says that climatologically we have two 5" storms a year. Sadly, we are in the right spot. *snip* I'm wondering how much the specific NWS location is influenced by factors of elevation and just pure geography (being more north and west of the city). I feel like what they measure and experience isn't always what the entirety of the metro area experiences. Now I probably don't have much room to question them as I've only lived in the metro area for just over a year now, but last winter I measured 24.3" on the season while the NWS official Pittsburgh total is 36.6" of snow. I definitely did not have a 5"+ or greater event last winter; the most being that 4" or so on February 20th. I didn't measure a 5" event in the preceding two winters, either, but that data isn't relevant because I was in a different locale. The last storm over 5" I measured was the big one in 2016. And ironically enough, I believe that largely spared Pittsburgh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Like someone said, we were due for a well below average snow year. The last season that failed to reach two feet of snow was the 1994-1995 season with 23.4". Looks like that's where we're heading, and the last season to not reach 20" was 1990-1991, with just 17.2", so that's also a possibility too. Also, looking back at historical records, missing 20" or 24" in a season was much more common the further back in time I looked. The past decade of winters had snow that averaged almost 10" above average, so I guess we shouldn't be surprised at a lower than average year. But it's definitely frustrating when 3 out of the last 4 years have been bad, and soon to be 4 of 5 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 I'm not ready to throw the towel just yet. February is climatologically the second snowiest month for W PA. Right now, the long term pattern (the active pacific and sub tropical jets) while they don't mean they are cold, they do mean that February should be active. All we need is a little wobble in the PV and then we might have the stage set. Would i be shocked if we had a below average season, no. But i also wouldn't be surprised if February (2nd - 3rd week) we at least got a few systems that can be players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 NAM has possible wrap around snow this weekend. Won't be a lot but I wouldnt be surprised if we get an inch from it. Something to watch and maybe we can eek out 2 inches and call it a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Looking more and more like this weekend will be rain and some wraparound snow showers with 1-3 Sunday thru Monday if we're lucky. Seems to be a possible storm next weekend of course things will change day to day until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 The next couple weeks look better for snow with cold dropping in out of Canada. Let’s hope it holds. A snowy February would make up for this winter so far. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 5 minutes ago, north pgh said: The next couple weeks look better for snow with cold dropping in out of Canada. Let’s hope it holds. A snowy February would make up for this winter so far. Fingers crossed. It does look active which gives us more roles of the dice to get a storm with a favorable track and cold enough air around. To this point it's been one of the lousiest winters in recent memory , and while we probably can't salvage the season as a whole a good Feb is still possible and statistically the ever so rare big storm is just as likely to happen in Feb 2020 as any other year. No reason to throw in the towel yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 2 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: It does look active which gives us more roles of the dice to get a storm with a favorable track and cold enough air around. To this point it's been one of the lousiest winters in recent memory , and while we probably can't salvage the season as a whole a good Feb is still possible and statistically the ever so rare big storm is just as likely to happen in Feb 2020 as any other year. No reason to throw in the towel yet. I've never seen a winter this bad, even 2011-2012 had snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Looks like we might be in for a long week of tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 23 minutes ago, Mailman said: Looks like we might be in for a long week of tracking. Yeah, this would go a long way to starting a fourth quarter comeback, 18z GFS: To bad it’s 7 days out.. we know it can only go down hill from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 The ensembles have been somewhat better than the OP GFS. *All* the members have something, which is fairly interesting. 12 out of 20 give us at least 6", while a few more are borderline to that level depending on your target point. I think it is rare (or at least unusual) to see this at such a range. The question is whether you believe it. Personally, we've been yanked several times already in this winter from ~7 days out. The GFS has been terrible. I'm not quite ready to buy in, but I'm also not sure if the GEFS has honked this season. It will be rather telling if the Euro ensembles at 0Z have anything similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Heh, here are the GEFs through 384, P14 says we are above average for the season by Feb 9th lol If only! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 3 hours ago, jwilson said: The ensembles have been somewhat better than the OP GFS. *All* the members have something, which is fairly interesting. 12 out of 20 give us at least 6", while a few more are borderline to that level depending on your target point. I think it is rare (or at least unusual) to see this at such a range. The question is whether you believe it. Personally, we've been yanked several times already in this winter from ~7 days out. The GFS has been terrible. I'm not quite ready to buy in, but I'm also not sure if the GEFS has honked this season. It will be rather telling if the Euro ensembles at 0Z have anything similar. I don’t buy it yet. Seeing all those perturbations lead to a decent snowfall does raise confidence but I’ll need to see similar outcomes on other models and more importantly see it under 100 hours. I won’t be shocked if the whole thing is gone at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Found these maps out there. Pretty interesting to see where we are so far in snowfall. Not the bottom, but pretty damn close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 12 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: I don’t buy it yet. Seeing all those perturbations lead to a decent snowfall does raise confidence but I’ll need to see similar outcomes on other models and more importantly see it under 100 hours. I won’t be shocked if the whole thing is gone at 00z. Yeah and now it's gone. The signal is still there but most models show a coastal scraper. One thing is there is a lot of vorts during the time period so the models maybe having a hard time with the solution. I'd say inland areas have a better chance with this just because of the seasonal trend. However we know how this ends, I'm curious to see the ensembles though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 13 hours ago, MikeB_01 said: Found these maps out there. Pretty interesting to see where we are so far in snowfall. Not the bottom, but pretty damn close Great visual - and while I seriously doubt its going to be the least snow ever recorded, it’s telling that it’s on the pace of that year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Those ensembles are just cruel. Would be great, but I wouldn't even expect a tenth of what some of those are showing. At least not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Looks like the Euro is moving further east. The thing is that at this lead time and this much energy floating around a day can make a difference. It's good to see the cutters gone but our friends out east may just get richer once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 It figures...after dealing with everything cutting all winter the next storm looks like it could be south or East. ive said it before, but it seems literally everywhere in a 50-100 mile radius of us has had a good 12+ inch storm the last 5 years but us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 1 hour ago, KPITSnow said: It figures...after dealing with everything cutting all winter the next storm looks like it could be south or East. ive said it before, but it seems literally everywhere in a 50-100 mile radius of us has had a good 12+ inch storm the last 5 years but us. Reminds me of 86-92, which featured long periods without snow. Dec 1992 was the first big storm I experienced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 1 hour ago, KPITSnow said: It figures...after dealing with everything cutting all winter the next storm looks like it could be south or East. ive said it before, but it seems literally everywhere in a 50-100 mile radius of us has had a good 12+ inch storm the last 5 years but us. Still a long ways out. Although odds are never in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 We need the NS to phase in sooner force this further north. We walk a tight line though because we don't want this to cut. As it stands now the trend is not our friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Got some things to do but here's the GEFS for the next storm before I head out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 4 hours ago, Rd9108 said: We need the NS to phase in sooner force this further north. We walk a tight line though because we don't want this to cut. As it stands now the trend is not our friend. Looks about right. Snow to west and east, and even south. Dry here, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 From my untrained eye the only way we will get an advisory level snow from this next system is a potent northern stream. An amped up runner seems out of the question at this time. Need to some big changes if that's gonna happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Unsurprisingly, the GEFS have backed off significantly from the earlier solutions, while the Euro ensembles are basically a nothing-burger. There's still time for a more phased solution to return, but it was always a long shot. Long-term snowfall probabilities have us at essentially a 100% chance of more than three inches over the next couple weeks, but that doesn't mean a whole lot, really, considering the length of the term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 9 hours ago, jwilson said: Unsurprisingly, the GEFS have backed off significantly from the earlier solutions, while the Euro ensembles are basically a nothing-burger. There's still time for a more phased solution to return, but it was always a long shot. Long-term snowfall probabilities have us at essentially a 100% chance of more than three inches over the next couple weeks, but that doesn't mean a whole lot, really, considering the length of the term. That's bold, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 2 hours ago, Ahoff said: That's bold, lol. They probably counted last night's 1/4 of an inch of sleet towards the 3 inch total, lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 3 hours ago, Ahoff said: That's bold, lol. That's through February 12th. Honestly, 3" in the prime of winter over a two week period is almost guaranteed around here. That's not hard to come by, and that's why I'd say it's not a hugely relevant statistic. We have some cold air now with potential access to more in the near future, as well a bit more favorable ridge and trough axis, but we might need to hit the window just right or storms will slide to our south (then in between continue to cut west as has been the typical track all year). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 I know we all want that big daddy storm but I'd honestly be content with a 3-6 type storm at this point. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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