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Hoosier

Winter 2019-20 Discussion

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On 10/4/2019 at 11:48 AM, A-L-E-K said:

let's just lock this in for the next 4 months

 

 

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Share some with Kentucky and Tennessee and I 100% agree. ;) If not, I'll settle for some more I-44 snow-chases. People in my area have to travel nowadays to see anything appreciable. 

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8 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Cold and dry.

Bound to happen sooner than later. Can't keep up the non-stop flooding forever. Also, can't buy a balanced stretch of wx. It's gotta go flipping extreme one direction then the other. My 2 cents fwiw

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System late next week/weekend would be a little interesting, relatively speaking (it is October after all), with a little different/colder evolution.  Have to remember that anything more than flurries/snow showers is very uncommon at this time of year for most of the sub, but damn if it isn't a winterish look at times in the extended.

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11 hours ago, Hoosier said:

System late next week/weekend would be a little interesting, relatively speaking (it is October after all), with a little different/colder evolution.  Have to remember that anything more than flurries/snow showers is very uncommon at this time of year for most of the sub, but damn if it isn't a winter-ish look at times in the extended.

NHemi Snowcover is like 2SD's above avg, and Canada looks to fill-up rapidly with snow in the next couple weeks. Won't be much to put the brakes on an early onset of that. Get ready!  Cohen's blog today mentioning a slight perturbation of the PV last week of October and the CFS has a very eastern trough look for Nov. Last Nov here was no. 3 all-time for snow, with no. 1 all-time just a few miles to my west. I thought we'd get back to dull boring Nov's per the norm this year. Not so sure about that now. 

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12 hours ago, Hoosier said:

System late next week/weekend would be a little interesting, relatively speaking (it is October after all), with a little different/colder evolution.  Have to remember that anything more than flurries/snow showers is very uncommon at this time of year for most of the sub, but damn if it isn't a winterish look at times in the extended.

Has been some very interesting GEFS members the last 36 hours or so

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2 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

/\  on 2nd thought, maybe things won't even wait til Nov? :snowman:

Models are muddled on the details of course but I really think something anomalous could happen in the final week of the month.  The amount of cold air that is available to be tapped into looks quite impressive for this time of year.  It's possible that nothing really happens and it ends up being a dry chill but the foundation is there.  

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9 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Don S winter thoughts.  Don't read if you like snowy winters :(

 

I think your post over there in his thread was dead-on for Chicago, it's a 50-50 dice toss going forward after such a snowy pre-season. My gut tells me that while ENSO/SST/Oscillations are indeed less than stellar verbatim, some items he mentions may indeed come through in the end. One of significance being the MJO. Notably here, 4 of the last 7 Novembers have had BIG snow totals against my 1.2" long-term avg. Sometimes in one huge storm, other times in multiple lesser events. During that same 7 years, 3 Dec's have been complete "no shows", but I've also scored 3 huge Dec's with 2019 looming as the "tie breaker" thus a microcosm of your analog list for Chi-town snowy winters. I won't say this December will make or break the entire winter, but it could go a long ways toward helping this winter stand out from the crowd. 

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5 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

I think your post over there in his thread was dead-on for Chicago, it's a 50-50 dice toss going forward after such a snowy pre-season. My gut tells me that while ENSO/SST/Oscillations are indeed less than stellar verbatim, some items he mentions may indeed come through in the end. One of significance being the MJO. Notably here, 4 of the last 7 Novembers have had BIG snow totals against my 1.2" long-term avg. Sometimes in one huge storm, other times in multiple lesser events. During that same 7 years, 3 Dec's have been complete "no shows", but I've also scored 3 huge Dec's with 2019 looming as the "tie breaker" thus a microcosm of your analog list for Chi-town snowy winters. I won't say this December will make or break the entire winter, but it could go a long ways toward helping this winter stand out from the crowd. 

Yeah these early snow correlations don't really tell a whole lot, particularly the one I posted.  Somebody posted about October snows not being a good sign for Chicago, but then when you extend it to snowiest starts by November 15 (the one I posted in Don's thread) it is much more of a mixed result.

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This is probably an obvious statement to make, but we did check a few years ago and there's a strong correlation between precip anomaly and snowfall amounts. CPC has essentially the entire subforum in enhanced probabilities for AN precip in the DJF and JFM outlooks. They also have a lean toward cooler anomalies for a portion of the sub in the JFM outlook. So if the above normal precip works out, that would seem to increase the odds for above normal snowfall when also accounting for the head start, unless it ends up being a blowtorch winter.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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Dons Winter outlook Is not terrible, it basically calls for somewhat below normal snowfall but also below normal temperatures in the Great Lakes. Despite the bare ground now, it goes without saying that the region has certainly got a head start in snow anomalies on the positive side, so there is definitely contradiction with a cold and drier Winter that don is predicting vs the above normal precipitation anomalies that many of the other forecasts show. DTX NWS issued their Winter outlook, noting that the 1st 20 days of November were the coldest on record, and stating that December should be milder than normal with less snow than normal, January should be colder than normal with normal snow, and February should have normal temps and normal snow.

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4 minutes ago, Baum said:

A mild December with below average snowfall. Ugh.

I mean that is just their forecast lol (and to be honest they dont have the best track record at seasonal forecasting lol).  But I will tell you one thing. If in the end December does end up mild with subpar snowfall, we will probably never shake the superstition that cold snowy November lead to mild lower snow december's. 

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19 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Don S winter thoughts.  Don't read if you like snowy winters :(

 

Don has always done a nice job.  I think last winter was his first bad bust since reading his winter outlooks over the years.  In fairness lots of Mets went way too bullish last year with all the "winter of yore" calls.

You never know, but I personally wouldn't bet on Don busting 2 in a row.   

 

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1 hour ago, buckeye said:

Don has always done a nice job.  I think last winter was his first bad bust since reading his winter outlooks over the years.  In fairness lots of Mets went way too bullish last year with all the "winter of yore" calls.

You never know, but I personally wouldn't bet on Don busting 2 in a row.   

 

Dons forecast isnt that bad, its just not super snowy. 

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23 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Dons forecast isnt that bad, its just not super snowy. 

Agree, it's actually a pretty close to normal call for our area.  This winter is looking pretty run of the mill.  Would be nice to get one blockbuster event with a long lead up....something us folks in central ohio have not had in several winters.  Otherwise it will end up in the overflowing file of forgotten winters.

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October outsnowed November in Chicago, which has happened several times since records began.  Here are the stats for those years and the resulting seasonal snowfall amounts. 

Year:  Oct snow, Nov snow, Total

1913:  1.9", T, 28.2"

1923:  0.7", T, 27.6"

1929:  0.7", 0.1", 58.2"

1952:  3.0", T, 23.4"

1957:  1.9", 0.5", 20.0"

1967:  4.4", 1.2", 28.4"

1989:  6.3", 3.9", 33.8"

1992:  0.3", 0.2", 46.9"

2019:  4.6", 3.7", ???

This year has a head start on all of the years above with the exception of 1989, but overall, I wouldn't read a whole lot into this.  Just throwing it out there.

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Most of the central-southern sub is going to have more snow in the October 16-November 15 period than in the November 16-December 15 period.  With any luck, things will turn right after December 15.

 

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