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Carvers Gap

Fall/Winter Banter 2019-2020

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I need to stop thinking that when the SPC mentions the TN Valley in their severe weather outlooks that they're talking about East TN. When I saw Jax's post in the severe weather thread about the upcoming severe weather potential, I thought that the TN Valley wording in the SPC included East TN. 

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14 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Happy hour gives us not ONE but TWO rainy bowling balls from the price of one!!!!

Can't beat it with a stick, lol.

Nice cross polar flow..heh

AccuWeather com® Professional - Forecast Models.png

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Be interesting to see if it's right tho.The last weeklies from the control shows cold starting around this time frame and lasting basically until Mid Jan and probably beyond,this is why it's banter talk tho..lol

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Do not watch the following gifs if you have a neurological condition that may be triggered by flashes

 

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All may not be lost!!

W must summon baby yoda to attack the stratosphere, but only at 50 mb:

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Then the great one will percolate down to the surface, yea yes and verily creating HL blocking on his way, and at length, he shall reign in Siberia:

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There he shall create snow cover and forsooth this snow cover shall create a great high that shall descend into China and shall even force a +MT event and extend the jet

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BUT....what about the MJO you might ask?? well baby yoda has ~1,000,000,000 midichlorians and can impact both the stratosphere and the tropics at the same time!!! Baby yoda is like last year's SSWe, but better

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All convection shall be forced into the dateline and coupled with the pac jet extension that must undercut the high latitude blocking, we shall reap the rewards

 

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DO OR DO NOT. THERE IS NO TRY.

 

 

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Google Translate SPC:

Tennessee Valley = North Alabama. Bama did get their obligatory tornado warnings, lol! In all seriousness SPC typically refers to the Lower Tenn Valley.

Appalachians = maybe East Tenn. If you like severe wx you'll have to just hope, because something usually goes wrong. Except the Plateau might surprise.

On 12/14/2019 at 10:05 AM, Runman292 said:

I need to stop thinking that when the SPC mentions the TN Valley in their severe weather outlooks that they're talking about East TN. When I saw Jax's post in the severe weather thread about the upcoming severe weather potential, I thought that the TN Valley wording in the SPC included East TN. 

Also check the probabilities. IIRC they were never really there for East Tenn. Marginal used to be general, so it does not really count in my mind. I still have trouble giving Enhanced respect because it used to be Slight. However the science can discern the two now; so, I think breaking up the categories is correct.

What else to include in Banter? Pacific convection is everywhere. Thunderstorms for everyone. Good luck forecasting the mid-latitudes though.

Finally in sports, Kansas is #1 and Gonzaga is #2. Somehow this run feels like the GFS, and I'm not necessarily talking about the Zags. KU is at Villanova next. KU suffers the #1 jinx frequently.

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7 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I think the GFS is about to give us an epic slider!

Looks good to me! First fantasy storm in at least a week!

image.thumb.png.5755bff133ed2df90f5cba927032b539.png

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Can I just cash that in now and call it a winter? That would be excellent timing as well and would hopefully get an extra day or two off work!

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For those with Tapatalk, have they worked out all their kinks?  I had it for a while and loved it, but then they made changes which caused me to delete it.   Just wondering what the user experience is like now?

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7 hours ago, tnweathernut said:

For those with Tapatalk, have they worked out all their kinks?  I had it for a while and loved it, but then they made changes which caused me to delete it.   Just wondering what the user experience is like now?

Did the same thing,it's a pain to use

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For those with Tapatalk, have they worked out all their kinks?  I had it for a while and loved it, but then they made changes which caused me to delete it.   Just wondering what the user experience is like now?


Works pretty good for me on an iPad and droid phone. But I don’t post as much as many others on here so I can’t report from that end


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
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I have discovered what happened.

In late October, of an evening, I was attending a wedding. It was beautiful. Even more beautiful than most. Perhaps, even more beautiful than a December snow, when the AO is positive. On my way home, back to Morgan County, I decided it would be a good idea to get a Cruze Farm pizza. Now, for those of you not blessed to have lived in east Knox county the past few years, Cruze Farm has crafted a pizza barn. Handmade, woodfired pizza: as good as it gets. Now, to be fair, I was in a good mood, no a great mood after a rainy wedding. Normally, a rainy wedding might put a person off, but this wedding was at a venue suited for sun, clouds, rain, or snow, because it was in an old(ish) school's gym, on the banks of the Holston. 

The rain put no damper on my mood and the thought of the pizza later that evening only buoyed it further. When I got to the pizza barn though, the skies were alive:

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(That is real footage from Strawberry Plains area at the pizza barn on October 19.) 

I knew that the ancient Romans practiced augury, the practice of observing the flight of birds and from that extrapolating the future. "What does this portend?" I asked myself. And then I knew the answer. The birds must be summoned to flap the TPV into an auspicious place. 

I, myself, was no augur. So I knew I had to just let it go and try to enjoy my pizza, no matter how hard it was. 

Days past.

Fall arrived.

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Then a month. Snows fell:

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I thought: "This will be a winter to remember!" But alas, mid-December came and reality set in.

However, up to then I had only seen the Mandalorian, and only knew of the powers of baby yoda. 'Tis it, I

 thought, shall rend the SPV in twain and force the cold air south. 

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But now, after watching The Rise of Skywalker, I know the truth. My hope was misplaced. 

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Baba Frick 4 life. 

 

 

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Merry Christmas to all! 

I ventured forth to the land of Carvers today and lo I saw a sign:

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Yeah and verily even over the Holston River itself. A bald eagle watching the river. But as I approached more closely it flew away. Perhaps it is a sign the American models will come to our aid after the new year. 

 

It did fly SWerly though, so maybe not, lol!

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Belated Merry Christmas and Happy New Year! I'm actually around but lulled by the mild weather. Don't get me wrong, I enjoy it!

Yes Israel has great microclimates. It's not quite California, since the Med is warmer than the Pac. However the humid coast and desert inland is sharply divided by the mountains on which Jerusalem sits. Range is north/south most of the way. Far south the Negev Desert is pretty extreme, but with stunning diving in the Red Seas. Then you got that occasional snow skiing northeast Israel toward the Golan. Yeah snow!

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