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donsutherland1

Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change

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    at 8 PM I was watching PBS
    a new series
    Greta Thunberg
    she must be the smartest human on the planet
    no one is even close
    at 16 in 2019 she was doing a speech off the top of her head to the entire world
    and everyone was transfixed with her because she is smarter than any political leader

    saw the presidential address after that

  • saw the presidential address after that

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On 4/28/2021 at 9:36 AM, bdgwx said:

I didn't make the chart. Nick Stokes did. I'm guessing he downloaded the netcdf files and did a lot of manual stuff on his side.

He also just mentioned something else last night...50 of the 68 members in Dr. Spencer's graph come from CanESM5 which runs very hot. It appears that KNMI does not yet have all of the CMIP6 data yet.

 

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On 4/30/2021 at 8:50 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Based on the above complete chart, it appears that Roy Spencer engaged in a deceptive practice on his blog when posting a skewed chart.

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2021/04/an-earth-day-reminder-global-warming-is-only-50-of-what-models-predict/

 

President Biden took action his first day in office to return the United States to the Paris Agreement.  Days later, on January 27, he announced that he would soon convene a leaders summit to galvanize efforts by the major economies to tackle the climate crisis.

 

By the time of the Summit, the United States will announce an ambitious 2030 emissions target as its new Nationally Determined Contribution under the Paris Agreement.  In his invitation, the President urged leaders to use the Summit as an opportunity to outline how their countries also will contribute to stronger climate ambition.

The Summit will reconvene the U.S.-led Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate, which brings together 17 countries responsible for approximately 80 percent of global emissions and global GDP.  The President also invited the heads of other countries that are demonstrating strong climate leadership, are especially vulnerable to climate impacts, or are charting innovative pathways to a net-zero economy.  A small number of business and civil society leaders will also participate in the Summit.

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On 5/18/2021 at 11:05 PM, donsutherland1 said:

New study: Approximately $8.1 billion of the damages that resulted from Sandy (2012) can be attributed to rising sea levels on account of anthropogenic climate change. The paper can be found here:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-22838-1

One thing I dont get is how a 4 inch sea level rise can cause that much damage?

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51 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

One thing I dont get is how a 4 inch sea level rise can cause that much damage?

The increased fraction of flooded area likely included some important and costly infrastructure.

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48 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The increased fraction of flooded area likely included some important and costly infrastructure.

Is the level of sea level rise currently 1 inch per decade, Don?  And expected to accelerate?

 

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Just now, LibertyBell said:

Is the level of sea level rise currently 1 inch per decade, Don?  And expected to accelerate?

 

It’s a little above that.

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11 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Is the level of sea level rise currently 1 inch per decade, Don?  And expected to accelerate?

 

Its been accelerating since the start of the industrial revolution. Almost no sea level rise from Roman times to 1800. 1" in the 1800s, 6" in the 1900s. 1.5" per decade now.

https://www.harvardmagazine.com/2016/08/what-roman-ruins-reveal

gmsl_2020rel1_seasons_rmvd_4.png

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On 5/22/2021 at 7:01 AM, chubbs said:

Its been accelerating since the start of the industrial revolution. Almost no sea level rise from Roman times to 1800. 1" in the 1800s, 6" in the 1900s. 1.5" per decade now.

https://www.harvardmagazine.com/2016/08/what-roman-ruins-reveal

gmsl_2020rel1_seasons_rmvd_4.png

The late John Daly had a website titled: 'Still waiting for Greenhouse', which prominently featured a high tide marker placed in 1841 on an island off Tasmania by British Admiral Napier.

That benchmark is still quite visible and well clear of the water at low tide, as shown in the associated photos.  http://www.john-daly.com/

It does cast some doubt on the claimed sea level rise acceleration.

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17 hours ago, etudiant said:

The late John Daly had a website titled: 'Still waiting for Greenhouse', which prominently featured a high tide marker placed in 1841 on an island off Tasmania by British Admiral Napier.

That benchmark is still quite visible and well clear of the water at low tide, as shown in the associated photos.  http://www.john-daly.com/

It does cast some doubt on the claimed sea level rise acceleration.

Not really. Local ground-level changes can be larger than sea-level rise. Also sea level rise is not uniform. Areas close to Greenland and Antarctica have less rise due to gravitational effects from shrinking ice sheets. Individual tide gauge records don't provide useful information on SLR, need to look at a large group of gauges with the proper weighting of different regions. The satellite record plotted above covers the globe and is robust.

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Hunter 2003 concluded that the 1841 to 2002 rise was +1 mm/yr at that benchmark site in Tasmania. This is composed of +0.8 mm/yr rise wrt to the marking plus +0.2 mm/yr when accounting for isostatic uplift of the land. No analysis was made regarding acceleration at this site though. Anyway, this is consistent with broader sea level over this 160 year period.

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On 5/25/2021 at 3:11 PM, chubbs said:

Not really. Local ground-level changes can be larger than sea-level rise. Also sea level rise is not uniform. Areas close to Greenland and Antarctica have less rise due to gravitational effects from shrinking ice sheets. Individual tide gauge records don't provide useful information on SLR, need to look at a large group of gauges with the proper weighting of different regions. The satellite record plotted above covers the globe and is robust.

isn't the sea level rise along the east coast of the US and the gulf coast supposed to be accelerating more than most?

It would be a nice to see a global map of where sea level rise has been higher than other areas and where it will accelerate the most in the future.

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11 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

isn't the sea level rise along the east coast of the US and the gulf coast supposed to be accelerating more than most?

It would be a nice to see a global map of where sea level rise has been higher than other areas and where it will accelerate the most in the future.

I've sen some maps like that, only one I could find was here:  https://psmsl.org/products/trends/

The detail maps I've seen show both rises as well as falls, often quite localized. Presumably this reflects local issues. 

Given that the earth is far from a sphere, it is frankly a miracle to measure ocean height to within a few millimetres.

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https://twitter.com/i/events/1397893536335339527

 

Earth inches closer to a dangerous climate tipping point in the next five years, scientists say
In a new report released on Thursday by the World Meteorological Organization, scientists warn there is a 40% chance that at least one of the next five years will temporarily reach 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than pre-industrial times. This increase would "push past the temperature limit the Paris climate agreement is trying to prevent," according to The Associated Press.
 
What you need to know
- There’s a 40% chance that at least one of the next five years will be hotter than pre-industrial times, according to the World Meteorological Organization. - WMO also says in their report that there is a 90% likelihood of at least one year between 2021-2025 becoming the warmest ever recorded. - Scientists warn that this increase could bring about "the most catastrophic and long-term effects of climate change," NPR reports.

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16 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

isn't the sea level rise along the east coast of the US and the gulf coast supposed to be accelerating more than most?

It would be a nice to see a global map of where sea level rise has been higher than other areas and where it will accelerate the most in the future.

Sea level trends from satellite. This doesn't include local land rise/fall or compaction of sediments, which is increasing the rise in Louisiana and some areas of east coast (NJ).

https://sealevel.colorado.edu/trend-map

cu_sea_level_trends.png

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2 hours ago, chubbs said:

Sea level trends from satellite. This doesn't include local land rise/fall or compaction of sediments, which is increasing the rise in Louisiana and some areas of east coast (NJ).

https://sealevel.colorado.edu/trend-map

cu_sea_level_trends.png

Thanks, this is exactly what I was wondering about.  Higher local rises around cities like Miami and Charleston (where a sea wall is now being built) as well as NYC and Long Island, where we are now seeing a sharply rising incidence of sunny day flooding.  All of the mentioned cities are.

 

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A historic early summer heatwave has toppled temperature records in many parts of the West. Through June 17, highlights include Phoenix’s earliest 118° temperature on record (last year set the mark for its latest such reading); Death Valley’s 128° temperature, which tied the June record and set a world record for hottest temperature during the second decade of June; Palm Springs’ all-time record-tying 123° temperature; Salt Lake City’s all-time record-tying 107° temperature; and Tucson’s record-tying six consecutive 110° temperatures (a record that will likely be broken on June 18). Anthropogenic climate change is contributing to such events through resonance events.

It is encouraging that some of the major news outlets have made a direct connection between the historic heat and climate change. Some highlights:

CNN: An unrelenting drought and record heat, both worsened by the changing climate, have pushed the water supply at Northern California's Lake Oroville to deplete rapidly.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/17/us/california-drought-oroville-power/index.html

The New York Times: Global warming, driven by the burning of fossil fuels, has been heating up and drying out the American West for years. Now the region is broiling under a combination of a drought that is the worst in two decades and a record-breaking heat wave.

“The Southwest is getting hammered by climate change harder than almost any other part of the country, apart from perhaps coastal cities,” said Jonathan Overpeck, a climate scientist at the University of Michigan. “And as bad as it might seem today, this is about as good as it’s going to get if we don’t get global warming under control.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/17/climate/wildfires-drought-climate-change-west-coast.html

The Washington Post: Fueled by climate change, the first major heat wave of the summer has seized the western United States, toppling records and threatening lives. The event is unprecedented in its timing, intensity and scope, said Washington State University climate scientist Deepti Singh; never have such severe conditions been recorded over such a large area so early in the summer.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2021/06/17/record-heat-wave-west/

Such coverage is consistent with good journalism. Indeed, responsible journalism requires publication of facts linking the extreme heatwave to climate change given the overwhelming body of evidence now available within the scientific community.

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