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Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change


donsutherland1
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13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes and until they are overcome, none of these 2035/2050 plans will work.  The Paris Climate Accord is but a hollow shell, something MUCH stronger and binding is required (with economic sanctions if necessary).

IMO, there needs to be a price placed on carbon. The polluters should bear the costs of their emissions, not society.

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1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

IMO, there needs to be a price placed on carbon. The polluters should bear the costs of their emissions, not society.

Carbon taxes?  That would work, but tax the fossil fuel companies even more than the consumers.  But this has to be done on a global level......when was the last time humanity did anything on a global level?  The ozone layer problem (which btw the ozone layer is getting larger now over Antarctica.)

 

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21 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

IMO, there needs to be a price placed on carbon. The polluters should bear the costs of their emissions, not society.

Prince William has just launched his "Earthshot Program" to award 5.3 million each to 5 winners every year dedicated to protecting the planet, inspired by JFK's Moonshot Program

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New research published by the National Bureau of Economics (NBER) indicated that rising sea levels are beginning to hinder home sales in vulnerable coastal regions. Put another way, markets are not denying the reality of climate change or one of its major adverse impacts.

Abstract:

In this paper, we explore dynamic changes in the capitalization of sea level rise (SLR) risk in housing and mortgage markets. Our results suggest a disconnect in coastal Florida real estate: From 2013-2018, home sales volumes in the most-SLR-exposed communities declined 16-20% relative to less-SLR-exposed areas, even as their sale prices grew in lockstep. Between 2018-2020, however, relative prices in these at-risk markets finally declined by roughly 5% from their peak. Lender behavior cannot reconcile these patterns, as we show that both all-cash and mortgage-financed purchases have similarly contracted, with little evidence of increases in loan denial or securitization. We propose a demand-side explanation for our findings where prospective buyers have become more pessimistic about climate change risk than prospective sellers. The lead-lag relationship between transaction volumes and prices in SLR-exposed markets is consistent with dynamics at the peak of prior real estate bubbles.

https://www.nber.org/papers/w27930

 

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6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

New research published by the National Bureau of Economics (NBER) indicated that rising sea levels are beginning to hinder home sales in vulnerable coastal regions. Put another way, markets are not denying the reality of climate change or one of its major adverse impacts.

Abstract:

In this paper, we explore dynamic changes in the capitalization of sea level rise (SLR) risk in housing and mortgage markets. Our results suggest a disconnect in coastal Florida real estate: From 2013-2018, home sales volumes in the most-SLR-exposed communities declined 16-20% relative to less-SLR-exposed areas, even as their sale prices grew in lockstep. Between 2018-2020, however, relative prices in these at-risk markets finally declined by roughly 5% from their peak. Lender behavior cannot reconcile these patterns, as we show that both all-cash and mortgage-financed purchases have similarly contracted, with little evidence of increases in loan denial or securitization. We propose a demand-side explanation for our findings where prospective buyers have become more pessimistic about climate change risk than prospective sellers. The lead-lag relationship between transaction volumes and prices in SLR-exposed markets is consistent with dynamics at the peak of prior real estate bubbles.

https://www.nber.org/papers/w27930

 

Seems a sensible piece of work.

Unfortunately, more people will read about President Obama's purchase of an ocean front home in Martha's Vineyard than NBER research.

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9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

New research published by the National Bureau of Economics (NBER) indicated that rising sea levels are beginning to hinder home sales in vulnerable coastal regions. Put another way, markets are not denying the reality of climate change or one of its major adverse impacts.

Abstract:

In this paper, we explore dynamic changes in the capitalization of sea level rise (SLR) risk in housing and mortgage markets. Our results suggest a disconnect in coastal Florida real estate: From 2013-2018, home sales volumes in the most-SLR-exposed communities declined 16-20% relative to less-SLR-exposed areas, even as their sale prices grew in lockstep. Between 2018-2020, however, relative prices in these at-risk markets finally declined by roughly 5% from their peak. Lender behavior cannot reconcile these patterns, as we show that both all-cash and mortgage-financed purchases have similarly contracted, with little evidence of increases in loan denial or securitization. We propose a demand-side explanation for our findings where prospective buyers have become more pessimistic about climate change risk than prospective sellers. The lead-lag relationship between transaction volumes and prices in SLR-exposed markets is consistent with dynamics at the peak of prior real estate bubbles.

https://www.nber.org/papers/w27930

 

I was stunned by the number of homes on Nantucket that are destined to fall into the ocean. Although I think it has less to do with sea level rise than the natural erosion of the south and east sides of Nantucket from ocean currents. A lot of houses used to be 100+ yards from the coast now have 30 foot cliffs into the ocean 20 yards from the back of the house.

What amazed me is that any house that wasn't teetering on the edge of a cliff already would still fetch a price of 3M+ even though it has less than 30-50 years of utility remaining. People have really short time horizons and it seemed like people were ignoring any risk that was more than 20 years away even though you can literally see what happened to homeowners that bought beachfront 20 years ago and are now falling into the ocean.

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On 10/12/2020 at 9:45 AM, donsutherland1 said:

New research published by the National Bureau of Economics (NBER) indicated that rising sea levels are beginning to hinder home sales in vulnerable coastal regions. Put another way, markets are not denying the reality of climate change or one of its major adverse impacts.

Abstract:

In this paper, we explore dynamic changes in the capitalization of sea level rise (SLR) risk in housing and mortgage markets. Our results suggest a disconnect in coastal Florida real estate: From 2013-2018, home sales volumes in the most-SLR-exposed communities declined 16-20% relative to less-SLR-exposed areas, even as their sale prices grew in lockstep. Between 2018-2020, however, relative prices in these at-risk markets finally declined by roughly 5% from their peak. Lender behavior cannot reconcile these patterns, as we show that both all-cash and mortgage-financed purchases have similarly contracted, with little evidence of increases in loan denial or securitization. We propose a demand-side explanation for our findings where prospective buyers have become more pessimistic about climate change risk than prospective sellers. The lead-lag relationship between transaction volumes and prices in SLR-exposed markets is consistent with dynamics at the peak of prior real estate bubbles.

https://www.nber.org/papers/w27930

 

I hope they hinder sales in regions vulnerable to wild fires too.

How long until we get some legislation preventing people from buying property in these climate vulnerable areas?

 

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I hope they hinder sales in regions vulnerable to wild fires too.

How long until we get some legislation preventing people from buying property in these climate vulnerable areas?

 

I suspect that as climate change progresses, insurers will increasingly drop coverage in high-risk areas and the case for federal support to cover damages in those areas will be questioned. Some form of limited "buy outs" might be provided as an alternative to such support.

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I suspect that as climate change progresses, insurers will increasingly drop coverage in high-risk areas and the case for federal support to cover damages in those areas will be questioned. Some form of limited "buy outs" might be provided as an alternative to such support.

Or the losses will accelerate and collapse the economy.

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In what represents a major breakthrough in American political discourse and offers a sign that climate change denial is waning in influence, climate change will be a featured part of next week’s Presidential debate.

The Washington Post reported:

As scientists predict that 2020 will be the hottest year on record, climate change will be among the six topics that will be the focus of next week’s debate between President Trump and his Democratic rival, former vice president Joe Biden, according to the Commission on Presidential Debates.

The 15 minutes set aside for the segment will mark the most amount of time President Trump will have been questioned about climate change during his presidency as well as the most time devoted to the topic in a presidential debate.

Kristen Welker of NBC News, the moderator for the Oct. 22 event in Nashville, also plans questions about the coronavirus, national security, race, leadership and “American families,” the commission said.

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10 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

In what represents a major breakthrough in American political discourse and offers a sign that climate change denial is waning in influence, climate change will be a featured part of next week’s Presidential debate.

The Washington Post reported:

As scientists predict that 2020 will be the hottest year on record, climate change will be among the six topics that will be the focus of next week’s debate between President Trump and his Democratic rival, former vice president Joe Biden, according to the Commission on Presidential Debates.

The 15 minutes set aside for the segment will mark the most amount of time President Trump will have been questioned about climate change during his presidency as well as the most time devoted to the topic in a presidential debate.

Kristen Welker of NBC News, the moderator for the Oct. 22 event in Nashville, also plans questions about the coronavirus, national security, race, leadership and “American families,” the commission said.

Blizz is available for debate prep - B)

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On 10/16/2020 at 9:25 PM, donsutherland1 said:

In what represents a major breakthrough in American political discourse and offers a sign that climate change denial is waning in influence, climate change will be a featured part of next week’s Presidential debate.

The Washington Post reported:

As scientists predict that 2020 will be the hottest year on record, climate change will be among the six topics that will be the focus of next week’s debate between President Trump and his Democratic rival, former vice president Joe Biden, according to the Commission on Presidential Debates.

The 15 minutes set aside for the segment will mark the most amount of time President Trump will have been questioned about climate change during his presidency as well as the most time devoted to the topic in a presidential debate.

Kristen Welker of NBC News, the moderator for the Oct. 22 event in Nashville, also plans questions about the coronavirus, national security, race, leadership and “American families,” the commission said.

Trump doesn't want to debate climate change (or covid). Wonder why?

 

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4 hours ago, chubbs said:

Trump doesn't want to debate climate change (or covid). Wonder why?

 

This response is not surprising. What’s missing is a letter or other document showing that this was supposed to be a foreign policy debate. If one wonders why no such documentation was furnished, it’s because of this as per the ground rules agreed by the Commission on Presidential Debates:

All debates will be moderated by a single individual. As always, the moderators alone will select the questions, which are not known to the CPD or to the candidates.  The CPD will choose the moderators, who will be announced in early September.

The first and third presidential debates will be divided into six 15-minute segments.  The topics for the six segments will be selected and announced by each moderator at least one week before each debate.  This is the same format as was used 2012 and 2016.

https://www.debates.org/2020/06/23/statement-second-presidential-debate/

Foreign policy will very likely fall under national security. However, politically inconvenient as they might be for some, COVID-19 and climate change are legitimate and important issues that should be discussed in detail.

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On 10/19/2020 at 7:49 PM, donsutherland1 said:

This response is not surprising. What’s missing is a letter or other document showing that this was supposed to be a foreign policy debate. If one wonders why no such documentation was furnished, it’s because of this as per the ground rules agreed by the Commission on Presidential Debates:

All debates will be moderated by a single individual. As always, the moderators alone will select the questions, which are not known to the CPD or to the candidates.  The CPD will choose the moderators, who will be announced in early September.

The first and third presidential debates will be divided into six 15-minute segments.  The topics for the six segments will be selected and announced by each moderator at least one week before each debate.  This is the same format as was used 2012 and 2016.

https://www.debates.org/2020/06/23/statement-second-presidential-debate/

Foreign policy will very likely fall under national security. However, politically inconvenient as they might be for some, COVID-19 and climate change are legitimate and important issues that should be discussed in detail.

One could easily argue that climate change and covid19 both fall under national security.  They actually do!

 

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A great quote from Jeremy Symons, former vice president for political affairs at the Environmental Defense Fund, concerning why climate change is now one of the leading topics of tonight’s Presidential debate: “It’s leaped out of the science books and into the communities where people have to deal with the deadly consequences of pretending it doesn’t exist.”

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A great quote from Jeremy Symons, former vice president for political affairs at the Environmental Defense Fund, concerning why climate change is now one of the leading topics of tonight’s Presidential debate: “It’s leaped out of the science books and into the communities where people have to deal with the deadly consequences of pretending it doesn’t exist.”

It’s going to awesome to see what happens when all these coastal areas get flooded.

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Transition from oil:

Support: 57%

Oppose: 28%

https://morningconsult.com/2020/10/23/post-debate-oil-gas-renewable-energy-poll/

The American public increasingly recognizes the reality of anthropogenic climate change. The arguments denying it or deflecting from human activities are increasingly rejected by the public. Now, the public is looking increasingly at policies aimed at addressing climate change and its growing adverse consequences.

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