Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change

[donsutherland1]

Here are the temperature anomalies for the Nepal/Tibet area. If Copernicus confirms this data for August, that will raise questions about JB's maps. Perhaps, just as with the CFSv2, they have a cold bias?

August 1-25, 2026:

Summer (June 1-August 25):

[GaWx]

38 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Here are the temperature anomalies for the Nepal/Tibet area. If Copernicus confirms this data for August, that will raise questions about JB's maps. Perhaps, just as with the CFSv2, they have a cold bias?

August 1-25, 2026:

Summer (June 1-August 25):

Thanks, Don. Wow, this isn’t even close to the cold JB showed though it was unlabeled. Is he by chance using normals from the Eocene epoch?

[Chinook]

I have never seen this type of real-time analysis map be +1.0 degrees C

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, Chinook said:

I have never seen this type of real-time analysis map be +1.0 degrees C

Even when it is using the cooler 1981-2010 instead of the warmer 1991-2020 for climo?

[chubbs]

9 hours ago, Chinook said:

I have never seen this type of real-time analysis map be +1.0 degrees C

I've been tracking since 2023. Over 1C daily is very warm but it has happened before mainly in the 23/24 nino. 1.04C in Nov 2023 is the highest monthly value. August was 0.942 the 5'th highest monthly value , the higher values were the last 4 months of 2023. Note that changes to the gfs model may change the metric.  

[Chinook]

7 hours ago, chubbs said:

I've been tracking since 2023. Over 1C daily is very warm but it has happened before mainly in the 23/24 nino. 1.04C in Nov 2023 is the highest monthly value. August was 0.942 the 5'th highest monthly value , the higher values were the last 4 months of 2023. Note that changes to the gfs model may change the metric.  

Honestly I will say that I have not checked that specific map very often. It's not of particular interest, day to day, for me.

It seemed like some individual days in the 2016 El Nino were very high like +0.8C or something. For example, Feb 2016 is listed as +0.817C on that web site. The recently monthly anomaly values, like July and August 2026, are high (on that web site), +0.764C and +0.942C. So that's pretty insane.