Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change

[bluewave]

I would say that the cold this winter in parts of North America was uneventful compared to what we used to get in the past. Sure some localized areas did see intervals of record cold.

But the areas of record warmth overpowered the colder ones so North America still finished with a significantly warmer winter than the old days at +1.522 C during DJF 2025-2026.  This winter was the 5th warmest on record for North America.The record highs were of a greater ranking and number than the areas of record cold. 

The last colder winter for North America occurred back in 1994. This is why numerous cold and snow records set that winter still stand to this day.

The warmest winter on record was 2023-2024 with 2024-2025 experiencing the 2nd warmest winter. So our warmest winters are becoming warmer with a shrinking winter cold pool. 

Each jump in global temperatures like we saw in 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 raises the bar for record warmth even higher. This is why the warming acceleration over the last decade is so significant. 

https://climatereanalyzer.org/research_tools/monthly_tseries/

 

 

[GaWx]

11 hours ago, chubbs said:

A couple of comments: 1) Yes, Roy is a long time climate dismissive 2) His dataset misses much of the warming in the early 2000s, 3) Best to look at the globe as a whole to judge warming, 4) Global UAH is more sensitive to ENSO than surface temperatures.5) Global UAH was very warm for a  La Nina in March, the first La Nina well above the linear trend.

We've reached the La Nina bottom in UAH. A typical nino spike in UAH from these levels would be hard to dismiss.

 

Charlie,

 I assume you realize that Roy’s been dismissive of alarmism related to AGW rather than the science of AGW, itself. He agrees that the globe has warmed due to AGW but doesn’t accept anything close to the worst case scenarios as being realistic because he feels that the warming from it is/will be less than the amount needed to result in the worst case due partially to negative rather than positive feedback. He feels that the alarmism is being largely fueled for political reasons.

 Due to extreme difficulty in predicting how much more the globe will warm, his being on the lower side is imho not contradicting science. We’re dealing with variables rather than exact answers.

 I personally feel that politics has a nontrivial affect on both sides of this issue as it affects so many things unfortunately. However, I do realize that outright AGW deniers do mainly reside on the conservative side of the aisle. These two statements aren’t conflicting.

[Typhoon Tip]

28 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Charlie,

 I assume you realize that Roy’s been dismissive of alarmism related to AGW rather than the science of AGW, itself. He agrees that the globe has warmed due to AGW but doesn’t accept anything close to the worst case scenarios as being realistic because he feels that the warming from it is/will be less than the amount needed to result in the worst case due partially to negative rather than positive feedback. He feels that the alarmism is being largely fueled for political reasons.

 I personally feel that politics has a nontrivial affect on both sides of this issue as it affects so many things unfortunately.

No confidence ... .

How in the fuck could anyone take that position when the entire planetary system, all metrics, air to sea and back, UNpredictably rose a whole degree C in the spring of 2023, 0 forewarning ?! And it was not predicted by any agency, man or machine 

If what you are saying of his, or any other's attitudes akin to it, is true, they're all full of shit frankly.  Sorry.  I'm not directing this at you  ...I've grown tired of hearing these idiots with a veritable podium making declarations that are so clearly arithmetically wrong, if they are frustrating they are embarrassing. 

NO, until something or some one comes forward as not only having predicted the 2023, "instantaneous Earth detonation degree event" would occur, but precisely and incontrovertibly how and why, logic calls their bluff. They are highly suspect if not unequivocally false.    

 

[GaWx]

 

32 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

No confidence ... .

How in the fuck could anyone take that position when the entire planetary system, all metrics, air to sea and back, UNpredictably rose a whole degree C in the spring of 2023, 0 forewarning ?! And it was not predicted by any agency, man or machine 

If what you are saying of his, or any other's attitudes akin to it, is true, they're all full of shit frankly.  Sorry.  I'm not directing this at you  ...I've grown tired of hearing these idiots with a veritable podium making declarations that are so clearly arithmetically wrong, if they are frustrating they are embarrassing. 

NO, until something or some one comes forward as not only having predicted the 2023, "instantaneous Earth detonation degree event" would occur, but precisely and incontrovertibly how and why, logic calls their bluff. They are highly suspect if not unequivocally false.    

 

Tip,

 I’m trying to figure out why you said this (is there a typo?):

“the entire planetary system, all metrics, air to sea and back, UNpredictably rose a whole degree C in the spring of 2023”

From what I saw, 2023 was a shocking 0.29C warmer than 2022 as per what’s below. But where are you getting that spring rose 1C?

1.54 °C / 2.77 °F	± 0.04 °C	± 0.06 °C
2022	6	1.25 °C / 2.25 °F

 

 Do you mean that all metrics first hit +1C above 1850-1900?

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah, I kind of typed ahead of my thoughts there

There was a “surge” between the end of February and sometime in May … most of which occurred in March, but in total it was between .3 to .4°C  this is may vary by source. I’ve seen the range.

But yeah, that took us right to the doorway we do not know we do not want to go thru, apparently   The 1.5 critical threshold. At least we’re not respecting it as a species.  And that was not supposed to happen so soon. The surge of that spring close the gap at an alarming rate…outpacing predictions by global modeling and scientists by decades;  at the time, it was believed it was temporary. 

So what’s troubling further, or should be… it has yet to go back really. We are as of right now still just about right there - but it’s obviously varies by tenths of a single degree weekly. There was conjecture in the ambit back in 2923 that it probably would settle back after a while. that has not happened.  I don’t recall exactly who said it and where it came from but I do recall.  

Anyway, the details aren’t really that important… my objection is directed atpeople like that guy making declarative particularly ones that are preposterous like that because they don’t fit the mathematics of what’s actually happening in objective reality.