Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change

[chubbs]

Animation showing the records tied or broken in the past 24-hours. Pink are March records. 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

That's not the issue. His inaccurate claims concerning Phoenix in 1879 is the issue.

Even if there was a huge heat spike in 1879 it's always about longevity. How long did that type of heat last in 1879. 

Today's heat is a combo of extreme highs + longevity. Nothing in recorded history comes close 

[donsutherland1]

24 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Even if there was a huge heat spike in 1879 it's always about longevity. How long did that type of heat last in 1879. 

Today's heat is a combo of extreme highs + longevity. Nothing in recorded history comes close 

Yes. This is a far more prolonged and more severe heatwave. Indeed, the five-day average high in Phoenix (103.8°) is above the April record five-day average of 103.0° from April 26-30, 1992. Nothing comes close to comparing to this March heatwave in the Southwest.

[GaWx]

28 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Even if there was a huge heat spike in 1879 it's always about longevity. How long did that type of heat last in 1879. 

Today's heat is a combo of extreme highs + longevity. Nothing in recorded history comes close 

I agree about the longevity of the current SW heat being very notable. Related to that, Phoenix has had a high today of at least 102 meaning 5 days in a row of 102+ after not having a single high >100 on record!

 But regarding longevity, doesn’t that bring the very long lasting 1930s dust bowl heat into the conversation?

[donsutherland1]

14 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I agree about the longevity of the current SW heat being very notable. Related to that, Phoenix has had a high today of at least 102 meaning 5 days in a row of 102+ after not having a single high >100 on record!

 But regarding longevity, doesn’t that bring the very long lasting 1930s dust bowl heat into the conversation?

It does. But it's worth noting that the Dust Bowl was not a solely natural pattern-driven or cyclical event. Human factors helped create the conditions that made the Dust Bowl possible. The underlying drought was real and it was likely sparked by internal variability. However, poor land management made it far worse than it would otherwise have been. Extensive plowing of native grasslands and exposed topsoil left the land highly vulnerable to wind erosion once rainfall diminished turning a dry period into a catastrophe.

Overall, the Dust Bowl is a powerful analog for a climate-change-driven aridification scenario because it shows how prolonged drought, extreme heat, and depleted soil moisture can combine into a self-reinforcing phenomenon. One is already witnessing drought-heat feedback in the Southwest, which is likely in the early stages of aridification, as forecast on the climate models. 

[ChescoWx]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

That's not the issue. His inaccurate claims concerning Phoenix in 1879 is the issue.

Don your view that what is happening now has never occurred before as always remains your blind spot!

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

Don your view that what is happening now has never occurred before as always remains your blind spot!

I didn't say "never" in the Earth's history. Almost certainly there were comparable or even more severe heatwaves during the mid-Pliocene, Eocene Thermal Maximum, etc. I stated, that the current March heatwave "is the most severe heatwave Phoenix has experienced in the period where records exist (even prior to the daily period of record that begins in August 1895) during March." It is. There's no credible information to suggest otherwise. 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I didn't say "never" in the Earth's history. Almost certainly there were comparable or even more severe heatwaves during the mid-Pliocene, Eocene Thermal Maximum, etc. I stated, that the current March heatwave "is the most severe heatwave Phoenix has experienced in the period where records exist (even prior to the daily period of record that begins in August 1895) during March." It is. There's no credible information to suggest otherwise. 

I’m roughly projecting that March 2026 at Phoenix will end up 12-13 F above normal. The current warmest of any month of the year is only 10-11 F AN.

 Side note: the NAO for this month is likely going to end up the most positive of any month since 1950! Does a +NAO in March favor a warm SW US?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Side note: the NAO for this month is likely going to end up the most positive of any month since 1950! Does a +NAO in March favor a warm SW US?

Yes.. +0.5 is really strong correlation

[chubbs]

Here's a climate first. The Colorado snowpack is gone 15 days before the typical peak.

[donsutherland1]

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

I’m roughly projecting that March 2026 at Phoenix will end up 12-13 F above normal. The current warmest of any month of the year is only 10-11 F AN.

 Side note: the NAO for this month is likely going to end up the most positive of any month since 1950! Does a +NAO in March favor a warm SW US?

Yes, an NAO+ is correlated with warmth in the SW. In fact, it is correlated with almost CONUS-wide warmth.

 

[chubbs]

58 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes, an NAO+ is correlated with warmth in the SW. In fact, it is correlated with almost CONUS-wide warmth.

 

That's what we have seen so far this month, CONUS-wide warmth. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Most of the time the NAO doesn't correlate high on the west coast. March is an exception. 

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, chubbs said:

Here's a climate first. The Colorado snowpack is gone 15 days before the typical peak.

That's nuts

[Typhoon Tip]

https://phys.org/news/2026-03-planet.html

"The amount of heat trapped by Earth reached record levels in 2025, with the consequences of such warming feared to last for thousands of years, the UN warned Monday."

[ChescoWx]

[GaWx]

19 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Thanks for posting these. I’ve seen similar charts showing lowered global wx related disaster costs in more recent years. Does anyone know the main reasons? Despite these drops (assuming these charts are accurate and not deceptive/being presented in proper context, which may very well be the case), are they projected to continue dropping as we continue to warm? That’s key to know.

[chubbs]

45 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Thanks for posting these. I’ve seen similar charts showing lowered global wx related disaster costs in more recent years. Does anyone know the main reasons? Despite these drops (assuming these charts are accurate and not deceptive/being presented in proper context, which may very well be the case), are they projected to continue dropping as we continue to warm? That’s key to know.

As explained in detail at the link below. Pielke's results have nothing to do with natural disasters. Instead they are an artifact of his analysis method. When the same database is analyzed properly. US disaster costs are increasing as percent of GDP and the number of disasters is increasing.

https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/334359/1/20251026_fix_roger_pielke_jr.pdf

[paulm]

5 hours ago, chubbs said:

Here's a climate first. The Colorado snowpack is gone 15 days before the typical peak.

Might have been a data artifact - am now seeing populated data for this chart:

[chubbs]

2 minutes ago, paulm said:

Might have been a data artifact - am now seeing populated data for this chart:

Thanks for updating, what I posted must have caught the database at a bad time.

[TheClimateChanger]

6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

That's nuts

Looks like it was an error, fortunately. Still way below even the record low but not zero.