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Rtd208

E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2019 OBS Thread

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0.27" of rain with our 1st rain event of the week.  2.87" so far this month which is 0.73" above normal here in NW Chester County PA. We are now at 26.51" of w.e. so far this year which is 123% of normal through today.

Through today the Philly burbs have not seen a 90+ day - however the PHL airport has already seen one such day. To highlight the PHL Airport heat island effect - while Philly averages 21 days of 90+ in a normal summer season....here in the NW suburbs of Philly we have only experienced 3 years in the last 20 years of records with even 10 or more days that surpass the 90 degree mark.

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Looks like the main line (and its remnants) have pretty much cleared my area and I ended up with 0.22" of rain so far today.  Current temp is 72 and it's partly sunny (but with a heavy cloud deck that the sun is has been peeping through) and soupy out with dews in the upper 60s/low 70s.

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Dews have come up quite a bit that's for sure. Sounds like the stage is set for heavy rain/storms the next several days.

Current temp 72/DP 69/RH 89%

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S NJ seems to be in the hot zone for storms right now and that looks to continue for today as they are in a slight risk on the new day 1 outlook.

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Flash Flood Watch is effect here from noon today thru late tonight but I think the best heavy rain/storms may be from Philly south but we will see how the day plays out.

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Flash Flood Watch extended until late tonight for my area, also a marginal risk for severe storms today which could be upgraded in later outlooks according to the SPC.

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3 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

Flash Flood Watch extended until late tonight for my area, also a marginal risk for severe storms today which could be upgraded in later outlooks according to the SPC.

Heavy hit of rain here around 5:30 AM.

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SPC has the area in a slight risk today with the mention of the possibility for a few tornado's. ML cape is already in the 500-1000 range and that is despite the cloud cover. RAP and HRRR have ml cape getting into the 1500-2000 range which is pretty potent. Dew points already around 70F across the area. Today could end up surprising severe wise, though the main threat still looks to be heavy rain with PWAT's around 2".

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1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

SPC has the area in a slight risk today with the mention of the possibility for a few tornado's. ML cape is already in the 500-1000 range and that is despite the cloud cover. RAP and HRRR have ml cape getting into the 1500-2000 range which is pretty potent. Dew points already around 70F across the area. Today could end up surprising severe wise, though the main threat still looks to be heavy rain with PWAT's around 2".

I usually expect a tempered threat for severe thunderstorms when the atmosphere is as saturated as it is today, since updrafts are weakened by having to lift air with a high moisture content, and without any pockets of drier air to get entrained in the storm to produce downbursts and gustier winds in storms, more thunderstorms end up being garden-variety than not.

 

With that said, veering low-level winds in the area might allow for isolated supercellular storms & a brief tornado, though garden-variety storms and downpours should be the "main storm mode" today...

 

Convective allowing models such as the NAMs, HRRR, and the WRFs have been showing some line segments of storms forming, with possible bowing structures... Though there isn't any dry air aloft to enhance downdrafts, there can still be strong/severe wind gusts in storms—particularly when segments of storms bow out. 

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Over the past two hours, Allentown has picked up 1.00" rain. That brings Allentown's year-to-date precipitation to 28.85". As a result, 1941 remains Allentown's driest year on record. Then, 28.76" that fell during the entire year.

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It looks to me like the best area for severe potential maybe be from about New Brunswick south with heavy rain/strong storms possible north of there. Have to see how the rest of the afternoon/evening plays out.

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I have picked up 1.09" of rain so far today with what looks like more to come.

Current temp 70/DP 68/RH 92%

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2 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

I have picked up 1.09" of rain so far today with what looks like more to come.

Current temp 70/DP 68/RH 92%

Monsoon rains the last 35 minutes. I would have to guess close to 2 inches the way everything is flooding.

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6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Over the past two hours, Allentown has picked up 1.00" rain. That brings Allentown's year-to-date precipitation to 28.85". As a result, 1941 remains Allentown's driest year on record. Then, 28.76" that fell during the entire year.

If the pattern continues, Allentown is on pace for another 60 inch season which is quite impressive.

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1 hour ago, Voyager said:

If the pattern continues, Allentown is on pace for another 60 inch season which is quite impressive.

At least that record isn't in Jeopardy eh I was growing concerned for them

 

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1 hour ago, Voyager said:

If the pattern continues, Allentown is on pace for another 60 inch season which is quite impressive.

That would be very impressive. Since 1912, Allentown has had only 3 years when 60" or more precipitation was recorded:

1952: 67.69"
2011: 71.72"
2018: 66.96"

Historically (1912-2018), Allentown has averaged 44.40" precipitation. However, the 2000-2018 period has averaged 48.38" and the 2010-2018 period has averaged 49.83".

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30 minutes ago, RedSky said:

At least that record isn't in Jeopardy eh I was growing concerned for them

 

:lol:

5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

That would be very impressive. Since 1912, Allentown has had only 3 years when 60" or more precipitation was recorded:

1952: 67.69"
2011: 71.72"
2018: 66.96"

Historically (1912-2018), Allentown has averaged 44.40" precipitation. However, the 2000-2018 period has averaged 48.38" and the 2010-2018 period has averaged 49.83".

It's definitely trending wetter here in Eastern PA.

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9 hours ago, Voyager said:

:lol:

It's definitely trending wetter here in Eastern PA.

It's just to bad we can't get that way above average precip. in the winter months when the cold is around!

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1.20" here since Monday. We had about 2 minutes of sunshine since Sunday. What total waste of 4 days off from work... 

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On ‎6‎/‎13‎/‎2019 at 11:55 PM, Ginx snewx said:

 

Wow - short but intense.  Wife and I were watching 6 of our 7 grandkids about 8 miles SSE from there while dad/mom were on an anniversary date (with the still-nursing 7th.)  Tor-warn came over cell phones and we pondered a to-cellar move while I went out for a look (3x.)  Little rain, no wind, no thunder, so we stayed put.

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