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HillsdaleMIWeather

March 13th-14th Severe Weather

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6 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Helicity is absolutely off the charts here currently. If we can really get some instability to build it's going to be showtime

 

4 minutes ago, Moosey2323 said:

Both the RAP and the HRRR are pointing to the development of a new area of storm development for Indiana and Michigan. On satellite right now there is a large area of zero clouds and we still have about 2 hours left of surface heating. Will be interesting if this develops.

I'm torn between being an optimist or throwing in the towel. Full sun here again, rain looks done for now finally. Taking a peek at mesoanalysis: shear and helicity are still screaming, theres a tongue of 1000j/kg SBCAPE and 500j/kg MLCAPE moving east, and there's a lollipop of DLCP sitting over my head. My gut doesn't feel great but at the same time, I cannot deny the ingredients are there.

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SVR watch vs TOR watch is easy for the area covered by the watch. Very limited instability across the watch area... and by the time the “instability axis” (1000J/KG SBCAPE across Indiana per RAP analysis) reaches the main part of the watch area, diurnal heating will start diminishing. From my POV, the main tornado threat of this event is about done.

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Mesoscale Discussion for Lower Michigan. Severe thunderstorm watch possible.

 

Quote
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Ongoing broken line of thunderstorms should continue to
   pose an isolated large hail and damaging wind threat for the next
   couple of hours. Watch issuance is possible.

   DISCUSSION...Strong large-scale forcing for ascent preceding an
   upper trough/low has encouraged scatted thunderstorm development
   this afternoon across parts of southern Lower MI. Some clearing has
   allowed temperatures to warm into the mid 50s to mid 60s ahead of
   this ongoing convection. Even though low-level moisture remains
   limited, the modest heating coupled with some steepening of
   mid-level lapse rates is supporting MLCAPE of 250-500 J/kg across
   parts of southern Lower MI. Strong effective bulk shear of 50-75+ kt
   will support organized updrafts, and isolated instances of large
   hail and damaging winds should continue to be possible as these
   thunderstorms move eastward over the next couple of hours.

 

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Just now, nwohweather said:

Not sure how there is no SVR warning for Angola, IN as that looks like a mean hailer 

IWX just ninja'd you on that one. Warning up now. Clicking NE at 55mph.

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Just now, geddyweather said:

IWX just ninja'd you on that one. Warning up now. Clicking NE at 55mph.

That's the one to watch. Per mesoanalysis it seems as all the CIN is gone with SBCAPE around 1000 and decent lapse rates as well. Honestly just a waiting game at this point but I'm shocked to not see a ton springing up

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2 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

That's the one to watch. Per mesoanalysis it seems as all the CIN is gone with SBCAPE around 1000 and decent lapse rates as well. Honestly just a waiting game at this point but I'm shocked to not see a ton springing up

Noticing some lingering CIN issues as well as more meager forcing as you follow the the cold front south. Lower MI looks like the sweet spot right now. That said, SPC just put up another T-Storm Watch that extends south to Fort Wayne and meets up with the one they issued previously. So we'll see. Not holding my breath however...

 

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First watch of non-winter variety here since August 8th. Feels weird since this is not your typical setup.

I am cautiously optimistic, but leaning more towards the cautious side. This line looks like it may peter out before reaching Oakland County.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI  
701 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2019  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHEASTERN SHIAWASSEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN...  
  NORTHWESTERN GENESEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN...  
  
* UNTIL 730 PM EDT.  
      
* AT 700 PM EDT, A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED  
  OVER DURAND, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.  
  
  THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
  

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1 minute ago, Moosey2323 said:

Debris ball on the storm about to head north of Flint, MI.


The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northeastern Shiawassee County in southeastern Michigan...
  Northwestern Genesee County in southeastern Michigan...

* Until 730 PM EDT.
    
* At 700 PM EDT, a large and extremely dangerous tornado was located
  over Durand, moving northeast at 60 mph.

  This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

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It may or may not be accurate, but I wish they wouldn't use the "large and extremely dangerous" wording without visual confirmation of such, or at the very least a couplet and TDS that supports it. The generic "radar indicated rotation" is not enough.

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EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI  
705 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2019  
  
MIC049-155-142330-  
/O.CON.KDTX.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190314T2330Z/  
SHIAWASSEE MI-GENESEE MI-  
705 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2019  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM EDT FOR  
NORTHEASTERN SHIAWASSEE AND NORTHWESTERN GENESEE COUNTIES...  
      
AT 704 PM EDT, A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED  
OVER LENNON, OR NEAR DURAND, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.  
  
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  

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1 minute ago, Moosey2323 said:

Debris ball on the storm about to head north of Flint, MI.

Uh, I think that may have made a direct hit on Vernon, MI (pop. 783), NW of Durand. HUGE CC drop after passing overhead. 

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Just now, CheeselandSkies said:

It may or may not be accurate, but I wish they wouldn't use the "large and extremely dangerous" wording without visual confirmation of such, or at the very least a couplet and TDS that supports it. The generic "radar indicated rotation" is not enough.

The TDS and reflectivity on radar with a debris ball definitely supports the extremely dangerous part.

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Just now, janetjanet998 said:

lots of housing subdivisions  between Flint and Beecher

 

 

Probably why they pushed the PDS warning. Not only is the area primarily residential, but it also has a lot of trailer parks, and this tornado won't be easily visible.

Yeeks

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now just radar indicated

 

IC049-142330-  
/O.CON.KDTX.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190314T2330Z/  
GENESEE MI-  
712 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2019  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM EDT FOR  
NORTHWESTERN GENESEE COUNTY...  
      
AT 710 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
WAS LOCATED NEAR FLUSHING, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
  
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
  
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
         SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE   
         TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE DAMAGE IS   
         LIKELY.  
  
THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
  BEECHER AROUND 720 PM EDT.  

 

 

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Around noon yesterday the temperatures started to sore towards the mid 70's... the sun was breaking out and a line of storms with tornadic cells was building through eastern IN and ready to cross into OH.  There was almost no doubt in my mind that we were going to see one heck of a severe outbreak.   Amazingly it found a way to fail even though it came through right at the most prime time  of the day.  Other than about a 15 minute incredibly heavy down pour and a few claps of thunder....that was about it.   

Clearly weather failures in CMH are not limited to winterstorms.  

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8 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Around noon yesterday the temperatures started to sore towards the mid 70's... the sun was breaking out and a line of storms with tornadic cells was building through eastern IN and ready to cross into OH.  There was almost no doubt in my mind that we were going to see one heck of a severe outbreak.   Amazingly it found a way to fail even though it came through right at the most prime time  of the day.  Other than about a 15 minute incredibly heavy down pour and a few claps of thunder....that was about it.   

Clearly weather failures in CMH are not limited to winterstorms.  

I think Michigan posters suffers the same fate when it comes to severe weather, although they can use the lakes as an excuse. There's no excuse for Ohio. You guys just don't try hard enough!!  You know that I'm just being facetious, and I suffered the same fate as you yesterday. Severe storms to both my north and northwest as well as to my south and we ended up in no mans land here with 0.40" of rain and one clap of thunder.

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Just now, IWXwx said:

I think Michigan posters suffers the same fate when it comes to severe weather, although they can use the lakes as an excuse. There's no excuse for Ohio. You guys just don't try hard enough!!  You know that I'm just being facetious, and I suffered the same fate as you yesterday. Severe storms to both my north and northwest as well as to my south and we ended up in no mans land here with 0.40" of rain and one clap of thunder.

true, but at least they get snow.

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