march 1 event

[skonajezski31]

lets start this with the 3/1 event. models playing catch up to nam/rgem/cmc blend 

[The Iceman]

06z euro says mt. holly better get those WWA ready...

 

[The Iceman]

 

mt holly not buying the euro or nam... really don't get it, most guidance has at least an inch across the area. especially chester county... that seems way too low out there. 

 

 

 

 

 

[JMcCaughey42]

46 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

 

mt holly not buying the euro or nam... really don't get it, most guidance has at least an inch across the area. especially chester county... that seems way too low out there. 

 

 

 

 

 

We're due for an overperformer

[KamuSnow]

1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

 

mt holly not buying the euro or nam... really don't get it, most guidance has at least an inch across the area. especially chester county... that seems way too low out there. 

 

 

 

 

 

I imagine they'll bump it up to reflect latest guidance, which has pretty much all increased an inch or more since the 0z suite, which was likely part of the basis for those maps.

[SNOWmizzer]

Hey All. New member here but long Time lurker. 

 

6z GFS came north 

[ChescoPaWxman]

Per JB says tonight into tomorrow could be biggest PHL event of the year as GFS still not far enough north also goes on with below

"was going over PHL/NYC/BOS ( I realize I am spending alot of time on this area, but as far as the snow has gone, its a huge pain, PHL and NYC are 10 inches below normal, Since I think there are 5 threats in the next 12 days ( tonight, then sat night, then Sun night into Mon, then the middle or latter part of next week and finally around day 11 or 12) The numbers are doable, Heck if lucky they can be doubleable ( instead of getting the 10 you get 20 inches in the next 10 days), Go look at March of 1969 for instance in the mid Atlantic.

It will take some doing but even after the next 3 I think there are 2 more shots to get this snow to where the forecast had it in that area

But tonight is a big deal, Morning rush hours from DC to NYC are likely to be pretty interesting,"

[CoolHandMike]

1 hour ago, KamuSnow said:

I imagine they'll bump it up to reflect latest guidance, which has pretty much all increased an inch or more since the 0z suite, which was likely part of the basis for those maps.

Let's hope so. State College has widespread 2-3" just to the east.

[RedSky]

1 hour ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

Per JB says tonight into tomorrow could be biggest PHL event of the year as GFS still not far enough north also goes on with below

"was going over PHL/NYC/BOS ( I realize I am spending alot of time on this area, but as far as the snow has gone, its a huge pain, PHL and NYC are 10 inches below normal, Since I think there are 5 threats in the next 12 days ( tonight, then sat night, then Sun night into Mon, then the middle or latter part of next week and finally around day 11 or 12) The numbers are doable, Heck if lucky they can be doubleable ( instead of getting the 10 you get 20 inches in the next 10 days), Go look at March of 1969 for instance in the mid Atlantic.

It will take some doing but even after the next 3 I think there are 2 more shots to get this snow to where the forecast had it in that area

But tonight is a big deal, Morning rush hours from DC to NYC are likely to be pretty interesting,"

5 threats LOL, tomorrow biggest of the year LMAO 

JB on an all time roll 

 

 

[Newman]

With almost all guidance showing 1-2" here in Berks, I'm fairly confident for some minor accumulations tomorrow morning. Philly area could see 2-3".

[ChescoPaWxman]

40 minutes ago, RedSky said:

5 threats LOL, tomorrow biggest of the year LMAO 

JB on an all time roll 

 

 

He is the best! He will always give hope for snow weenies + he needs a couple of these "5" to pan out to get most places above normal for the season and approach his seasonal forecast. 

[Newman]

18z NAM 

[Ralph Wiggum]

29 minutes ago, Newman said:

18z NAM 

There is that feature we have seen the entire season just a hair N this time ie the snow hole from N Bucks on East to Redsky in Monmouth. Assuming that will nudge South in reality to where we have seen all year and I will record my usual .5"-1" ish type while I'm surrounded N S and W with 3"+ totals.

[Bosswx]

Hoping for a surprise when I wake up maybe 2".

[Hurricane Agnes]

WWA lofted for the southern 1/3rd of the CWA -

Quote

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
250 PM EST Thu Feb 28 2019


NJZ016>019-021-PAZ070-071-101-102-104-106-010800-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0013.190301T0600Z-190301T1500Z/
Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Cumberland-
Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-
Eastern Montgomery-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden,
Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Mount Holly, Millville, Media,
Philadelphia, Honey Brook, Oxford, West Chester, Kennett Square,
Norristown, Lansdale, Morrisville, and Doylestown
250 PM EST Thu Feb 28 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3
  inches expected.

* WHERE...Portions of southern New Jersey and southeast
  Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...Snow will begin overnight after midnight from west to
  east and continue through early Friday morning before
  diminishing to light rain or patchy freezing drizzle by late
  morning. The heaviest snow is expected from roughly 4 AM to 8
  AM

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions which
  could create hazardous travel. The hazardous conditions will
  impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

 

[KamuSnow]

Based on the 18z suite so far, I'll take the NAMs for tonight and Friday night, and the ICON for Sunday night, please . Can we mix and match?

[Newman]

Wow the Saturday coastal came out of nowhere. GFS gives SNE well over 6". I think parts of our area could see some snow from that as well, would lean towards the coast.

[MGorse]

5 hours ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

Per JB says tonight into tomorrow could be biggest PHL event of the year as GFS still not far enough north 

The bar is set rather low. Lol 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Someone in far S PA (Chesco Delco etc) is going to be in for a surprise tomorrow AM. Not a massive snowfall but a period of heavy squallish snow falling during the busiest travel time along the most populated/congested area in the state spells a traffic nightmare in my book. And the local news is just meh. If the RGEM and other mesos verify with that West to East swath of heavier snows via the deathband, lots of average Joe's that commute to work early will be pissy tomorrow. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

52 minutes ago, Newman said:

Wow the Saturday coastal came out of nowhere. GFS gives SNE well over 6". I think parts of our area could see some snow from that as well, would lean towards the coast.

Telling ya March is the new January. Threat after threat lol.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Mesos have an uber death band in the early morning just prior to or during rush hour (4-8am). Seeing rates on some guidance of 2"/hr under the best lift area which is setting up just N of the Mason dixon line. Someone is going to be surprised tomorrow and some 6-7" totals in spots would not surprise me at all. Kamu that snow pile should benefit nicely. Canadian guidance is on fire tonight.

[skonajezski31]

rgem has been showing this for  past 36 hours however bouncing it around 18z sets up along mason dixon line and watching the current radar that seems about right 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Meanwhile the hrrr is a c-1" type. One of these are going to bust badly in the short range.

[skonajezski31]

yeah that and the rap have not been all that impressed but when i see this  its impresses me 

[skonajezski31]

im reviewing current radar down in WV and the precip output by  hrdps and its almost spot on 

 

[Bosswx]

Temp already down to 26.2. I wonder if I will get anything from the coastal Saturday. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

40 minutes ago, skonajezski31 said:

im reviewing current radar down in WV and the precip output by  hrdps and its almost spot on 

 

Hrrr is slowly increasing snowfall amounts now past 4 runs. Canadians are likely too extreme hrrr still a bit low. Somewhere in the middle most likely.

[Ralph Wiggum]

I dunno about this hrrr model let alone the extended 0z hrrr. Is all snow for tomorrow PM while others are mostly rainers. What a tricky 3 days stretch of forecasting. Would not want to be a pro forecaster right now. 

[Morch Madness]

NAM is quite the wall of snow tomorrow morning. Drops a quick 2-4" during the AM rush.

[Ralph Wiggum]

12k NAM is quite the day tomorrow. 'Surprise' death band for Smsomeone in extreme Southern PA in the AM then a marginal rain to accumulating heavy snow tomorrow night rom a bombing coastal in eastern PA. Totals for both events: