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janetjanet998

FEB OH, mid/lower MS, Wabash river flooding and heavy rain threat

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last year was very wet and recent snowmelt and precip have rivers running high or above flood stage....the ground is saturated

the first of two heavy rain events will be starting this evening....with another later in the week..WPC has widespread 5-7 inches over much of the region the next 7 days

 

Day 9 image not available

 

this will cause potential major flooding....especially if the active pattern continues after this 7 day peirod

I'm not saying this will happen but for reference the OH river at Cairo IL is at 42 feet (and falling for now) 

action stage 32 flood stage 40...

Historic Crests Cairo
(1) 61.72 ft on 05/02/2011 (they had to blow the levee just downstream)
(2) 59.50 ft on 02/03/1937
(3) 56.50 ft on 04/03/1975
(4) 56.40 ft on 04/20/1927
(5) 56.20 ft on 03/11/1997

MS river New Madrid MO current stage 31..action 30 flood 34

1) 48.35 ft on 05/06/2011
(2) 48.00 ft on 02/03/1937
(3) 45.27 ft on 04/29/2011
(4) 44.60 ft on 04/09/1913
(5) 43.60 ft on 04/04/1975

 

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A very La Nina like end to this winter, so many La Nina years come to mind with flooding in those areas in late winter/early spring.

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4 minutes ago, Stebo said:

A very La Nina like end to this winter, so many La Nina years come to mind with flooding in those areas in late winter/early spring.

This has been a weird Nino.  Seems like the ocean and atmosphere have had trouble coupling to a great degree.

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Just now, Hoosier said:

This has been a weird Nino.  Seems like the ocean and atmosphere have had trouble coupling to a great degree.

Nino in the ENSO region but the outcome has been La Nina almost to a tee. Warm December with limited snow, usually Nino that is where you get your snow. It is just strange.

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16 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Nino in the ENSO region but the outcome has been La Nina almost to a tee. Warm December with limited snow, usually Nino that is where you get your snow. It is just strange.

I thought Nino decembers were notorious for low snow. Id have to look though.

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it's crazy, we are starting 2019 where we left off in 2018, (which was the wettest year on record for CMH).   Amazingly, and thankfully, the rain was dispersed enough to keep flooding from becoming a headline.    I think our luck is about to run out.   Eventually something is going to give wrt severe flooding and it looks like unless things change, spring could be pretty rough around here.

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1 minute ago, buckeye said:

it's crazy, we are starting 2019 where we left off in 2018, (which was the wettest year on record for CMH).   Amazingly, and thankfully, the rain was dispersed enough to keep flooding from becoming a headline.    I think our luck is about to run out.   Eventually something is going to give wrt severe flooding and it looks like unless things change, spring could be pretty rough around here.

models have shifted the heaviest rain south into KY and northern TN..still the OH river watershed (actual it goes into N AL via TN river) but much of the runoff can be stored in the flood control lakes....Indiana and OH have less flood control then areas south of the river...

but no drought shield to absorb any incoming delugesDaily Soil Moisture Pecentile

 

 

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The Blanchard River here in downtown Findlay on the rise here at the lunch hour. I have measured over 3/4" of an inch of rain already, with the main show to come.

002.JPG

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL WILL COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...
NORTHEASTERN GRUNDY COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 1245 PM CST

* AT 942 AM CST, EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED FLASH
FLOODING OCCURRING DUE TO RAPID BREAK-UP OF AN ICE JAM ON THE
KANKAKEE RIVER. EVACUATIONS ARE CURRENTLY UNDERWAY AND MULTIPLE
ROADWAYS ARE FLOODED.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
LOW-LYING AREAS ALONG THE KANKAKEE RIVER NEAR CHANNAHON, MINOOKA,
COAL CITY AND DIAMOND.

THIS WARNING INCLUDES... CHANNAHON STATE PARK.


.

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for reference the Tennessee Valley Authority controls the operations of the TN river and Cumberland River...which has a huge watershed most of TN and parts of Northern AL..there are many man made lakes for water storage..These were built after the OH river floods in 1937..all this water eventually makes it into Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley just east of Paducah KY... These  are huge reservoirs...they cut back outflow from these two dams until after the crest on the OH river passes....this reduces the crest down stream on the OH and MS rivers...there is a smaller scale version of this in KY south of the river too

picture of tva flattening a floodmap

 

 

 

as of right now KY lake is at 354 feet..which is is slightly below average this time of year..because  they just did a "dump" into the OH river the past couple of weeks lowering the level several feet to make room for the next heavy rain event( now)

 

here is an article on the lake after during the 2011 floods

 

 recent heavy rains flow downstream, water levels at Lake Barkley and Kentucky Lake are expected to reach record levels as early as this weekend.

The current record is approximately 370 feet above sea level "and we believe we will break that this weekend," said Bill Peoples, spokesman for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Nashville District, which manages Lake Barkley.

The Tennessee Valley Authority, which manages the adjoining Kentucky Lake, went so far as to forecast that water levels will reach approximately 374 feet next Thursday.

VA said it is working with the Corps of Engineers to retain water behind Kentucky Dam to reduce significant -- possibly record -- downstream flooding anticipated on the lower Ohio and Mississippi rivers.

http://archive.courierpress.com/news/record-levels-seen-for-kentucky-lake-barkley-officials-believe-current-max-will-be-broken-this-wee-e-324964771.html

 

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central TN along and north of I-40 getting trained including the Nashville area many flash flood warnings..this may have been further north toward the OH river if that front didn't sag south (like what was originally modeled) this also seems to be intercepting some of the moisture for areas further north

regardless, this heavy rainfall will likely be the first of many rain events of the coming 2 weeks that puts pressure on the flood control system and how much water can be held back for the OH river inflows near Paducah 

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44 degrees currently here at Indpls with WF just to our south expected to move northward on Thursday and give us a high of 60.  Rivers and creeks throughout central and southern IN are already in minor flood per hydro map and this will only continue with Thursday's rain, followed by freezing temps and then a new system to start the week to provide more moisture.  Gonna be an interesting late winter period before the start of met spring.

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nice slug of precip over S IL moving into IND..it's rather progressive but flash flood warnings out  for S IL for some training cells..looks like 1-2 inches today for parts of the OH valley, with isolated high amounts

factoring into todays rainfall ..the lower wabash, white and the OH river at Cairo (47.0 feet) are forecast to rise into Moderate flood over the next few days

MS river at New madrid rise to 35 ft/(minor)

some of the guages are running ahead of the forecast points form last night so I suspect they will be adjusted upward this morning

lots of rain also fell on the TN valley..nashville 4 inches..

Lake levels..these lakes are connected by a canal near the dams so their levels should always be pretty equal..

Kentucky lake 354.34 up .4 feet the last 24 hours..outflow into OH river 128,000 cfs (which is typical)

Lake Barkley 354.30 up .25 feet outflow into the oh RIVER 58,000 cfs (which is typical) 

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S IL , IND, into OH took a hit today..many flash flood warnings and some water rescues..moderate rain still training into the OH valley and will continue into the night

the OH river at Paducah crest now at 42.5 next Monday and hold steady (MOD flood stage 43 feet) ....and hold about that level until feb 17th

at Cairo crest increased a foot to 48 feet and stay above 47 feet (mod stage) until monday FEB 18th

MS river at New Madrid crest increased a foot to 36 feet and stay above flood stage (34 ft) until feb 18th 

I should note some of the gauges upstream form these locations on the Wabash and OH are running above forecast points..so another adjustment higher may be needed this evening

-----------

The above of course if without any more precipitation into the flood forecast..

light amounts are possible to begin Sunday and increase early next week

LOU AFD

LONG TERM  
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 301 PM EST THU FEB 7 2019  
  
...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT   
WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL FLOODING POSSIBLE...  
  

 

 COMBINATION OF   
STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT FETCH OF GULF   
MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION   
SUNDAY NIGHT.  TEMPS MAY COOL INTO THE MID 30S BY EARLY MONDAY   
MORNING, BUT MODEL PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT RAIN WILL BE THE   
DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE.  HOWEVER, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME   
LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR MAY WORK INTO OUR NORTHERN ROW OF SOUTHERN IN   
COUNTIES RESULTING IN A MIX OR CHANGE OVER TO SOME SNOW.  
  
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE ON A   
SIMILAR SETUP TO WHAT WE SAW LATE LAST WEEK WITH A PERSISTENT   
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY LOCATED IN A BROAD   
BAROCLINIC ZONE.  SOUTHERN IN AND CENTRAL KY ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN   
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE ZONE RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.   
SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING PERIODS   
OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3   
INCHES LOOK LIKELY WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.  GIVEN   
SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS, THIS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED   
FLOODING ISSUES IN SOME AREAS. THE LARGER STORY WOULD BE THAT THIS   
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF WOULD GO RIGHT INTO OUR RIVERS WHICH WILL SIMPLY   
RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF FLOODING WITH SOME RIVERS SEEING   
ADDITIONAL RISES INTO HIGHER FLOOD CATEGORIES.

 

 

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no change to river crests, but Cairo a little ahead of forecast points

Kentucky lake  354.64    up .3   outflow up to 156K cfs

Lake Barkley  354.4       up .1  outflow up to   82K  cfs

combined outflows yesterday 186K  cfs

today          238K cfs 

increase of 52,000 cfs

since the forecast for the OH isn't super high yet they can still dump alot of water, and looks  like the current plan is to keep the lake level lower for future storage

 

no chnage to rainfall outlook..heavy rains next week OH river south into tn

LOU

NG TERM  
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 255 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2019  
   
..VERY WET SUNDAY-TUESDAY WITH MORE RIVER FLOODING  
  
WELL...ANOTHER SUBSTANTIAL RAIN EVENT WITH SIMILAR SET UP AS THIS   
PAST 3 DAY RAIN EVENT. QUITE FRANKLY FEELING MORE LIKE   
LATHER...RINSE REPEAT WITH SUCH A WET PATTERN. AFTER A 2 DAY BREAK   
FROM THE RAIN, SUNDAY BEGINS THE NEXT EVENT WHICH LASTS THRU TUE   
EVENING.    

 

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new crest updates. ..rather large increases...again without the rainfall next week factored in yet...

PAH 46.5 (increase of  4 feet)  peaking in 10 days  39th highest on record (but its a already a tad behind the forecast points)

Cairo  49.5 increase of 1.5 feet peaking feb19th this would be the 26th highest on record

new madrid 37.5 increase of 1.5 feet 24th highest

 

 

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the wet year last year all over has alot of the flood control lakes above average 

an example is Lake Cumberland in KY

Wet weather has lake levels up

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is trying desperately to lower the level of Lake Cumberland. Heavy rains have pushed the water above the tree line and more rain is expected. Normally, in February, the lake would be at a winter low of about 700 feet above sea level.

We've been fighting this for two months now."

Robert Dillingham, hydraulic engineer at U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Nashville District, was talking about excess water in Lake Cumberland during this unusually wet winter.

"If we got zero rainfall during the next 30 days I might get the lake level down 10 feet," said Dillingham, adding: "There is a limit to the amount of water we can let through Wolf Creek Dam."

Lake Cumberland at 8 a.m. Thursday was 724.14 feet above sea level. The water has inched 1.14 feet above the tree line and the Corps was releasing 17,500 cubic feet per second through the dam.

With normal rainfall, the first subtle sign of spring is a slow rise in Lake Cumberland, beginning in February at about 700 feet above sea level to 723 feet by May 15 (tree line) at the start of the recreational season.

https://www.somerset-kentucky.com/news/local_news/wet-weather-has-lake-levels-up/article_8a8743fb-07d0-5644-a2cf-0f4bc326630d.html

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And county flood warnings have been extended until Saturday morning for much of central and sw IN.  The Wabash river continues to rise with flood warnings extended indefinitely at least through Tuesday when more rain will factor into the mix.  Monroe and Brown counties especially have multiple roads flooded and/or washed out which will take weeks to repair according to highway personnel.

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17 hours ago, Indystorm said:

And county flood warnings have been extended until Saturday morning for much of central and sw IN.  The Wabash river continues to rise with flood warnings extended indefinitely at least through Tuesday when more rain will factor into the mix.  Monroe and Brown counties especially have multiple roads flooded and/or washed out which will take weeks to repair according to highway personnel.

and here is the levels of the flood control lakes in IND, OH and KY

http://www.lrl-wc.usace.army.mil/reports/lkreport.html

still rising and well above normal for this time of year as inflow outpaces ouflows as they try to store as much water as possible

It was dry the months leading up the 1997 OH river floods as well the 2010 nashville floods (cumberland river) , in fact Lake cumberland started at 680ish feet and got no higher then 703 feet , with zero outflow through the event, right now it is 730 feet  and rising(record 751 feet)

the 2011 flood event had well above normal precip leading up to the "big one"  my fear is is we continue with these "moderate" to heavy events every few days..then if an extreme 10 inch+ event occurs later could be big  trouble..

anyway they have increase lake Barkley outflow to 125,000 cfs and Lake Kentucky to 157,000 (282K combo) and the lakes are steady or slowly falling,...I suspect they are trying to lower them as much as possible before the crest of the OH river reaches the rivers in a few days

 

---------------

Really Creeksitter,
From the Army Corps of Engineers:

"Wolf Creek Dam, near Jamestown, Kentucky, impounds Lake Cumberland, which is the largest reservoir east of the Mississippi River and ninth largest in the U.S. At over a mile long, the 5,736 feet dam provides a total flood storage capacity of 6,089,000 acre-feet (1 acre-foot = 1 acre, 1 foot deep or 325,850 gallons). One could add all the water of all the other lakes in the Ohio River Valley System and still have room for more water."

 

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
319 AM EST Sat Feb 09 2019
 
Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Feb 11 2019 - 12Z Tue Feb 12 2019 

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF 
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...Mid Mississippi into the Ohio Valley...
A long wave trough over the Rockies early on Day 3 takes on a 
negative tilt as it crosses the Mid MS Valley late in the period. 
Deep moisture and marginal instability ahead of the mid level 
system will feed low topped convection that produces heavy to 
excessive rainfall. The 00z GFS appears to be too far north with 
its front and surface low ahead of the mid level trough, so the 
WPC QPF and Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) were based primarily 
on a blend of the 00z ECMWF (which has been consistent with the 
placement of the highest rainfall) and the 00z UKMET.

Synoptic scale ascent ahead of the long wave trough as it tracks 
from the Rockies into the Mid and Upper MS valley increases as the 
trough takes on a negative tilt toward 12/12z. Ahead of the mid 
level system (and along a stationary front extending from 
northeast TX into TN/KY), a 40 to 50 knot low level southwest flow 
transports 1.25 inch precipitable water air (which is between two 
and three standard deviations above the mean) from central AR into 
southern IN and southwest OH. Model soundings (and the 08/21z 
SREF) showed 100-250 J/KG of MUCAPE in the moisture plume, which 
should be enough to support low topped convection along and south 
of the front (mainly between 11/21z and 12/06z). 

There was a strong model signal for an axis of 2.00/3.00 inches of 
rainfall extending from central AR into southernmost IN and a 
small portion of southwest OH, with the highest amounts over far 
northeast AR into western KY. As the 850-300 mb mean layer wind 
becomes better aligned with propagation vectors (especially after 
12/00z), the threat of training increases, especially across 
northeast AR into northwest TN and western KY. Locally higher 
rainfall amounts are possible here, before the mid level trough 
becomes negative. When this occurs, and surface low pressure 
deepens over portions of the Mid and Upper MS Valley, a surface 
cold front crosses the TN and OH Valleys, allowing the low topped 
convection to become more progressive.

While three hour flash flood guidance values have shown some 
recovery across the Mid MS Valley, there are still rivers in flood 
here, and output from the most recent National Water Model showed 
high streamflows continuing through 12/12z, with an increase in 
coverage due to the Day 3 rainfall. Two day rainfall totals of 
4.00/5.00 inches are possible across portions of northeast AR, far 
southeast MO and northwest TN, which saw 3.00/6.00 inches of 
rainfall within the past week. Given the antecedent conditions, 
and the expected two day rainfall, a Moderate Risk was placed over 
the abovementioned areas (this was collaborated with WFOs 
LZK/MEG/PAH). 

A Slight Risk was extending from this area into portions of the OH 
Valley (including southern IN, much of the rest of KY and portions 
of OH). While the duration of highest rainfall rates here may not 
be as long as further southwest (as the cold front allows the 
activity to become more progressive late), three hour flash flood 
guidance values over these areas are as low as 1.00/1.50 inches.
 

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Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
549 AM EST Sat Feb 9 2019 /449 AM CST Sat Feb 9 2019/

...Another Round of Significant Rain Expected Sunday through
Tuesday...

Plentiful moisture combined with multiple disturbances moving
along a stalled boundary over the region will result in rounds of
moderate to at times heavy rain over southern Indiana and central
Kentucky Sunday through Tuesday. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 3
inches are expected with locally higher totals possible over west
central Kentucky.

This additional rain falling on already saturated grounds from
rains this past week will result in ponding of water on roads and
in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Isolated flash flooding may
occur as well if rainfall rates become high enough.

Many rivers, creeks and streams are already running high or are
experiencing minor flooding. Rains early this coming week will
likely aggravate existing river flooding and cause new river
flooding. Rivers that are expected to be impacted include the
Ohio, Green, Rough, Rolling Fork, Kentucky, Blue, and Licking
Rivers as well Drakes and Elkhorn Creeks.

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widespread 1-3 inches, with locally higher amounts, still on track with this system..

flood watches out for much of the OH valley,...Crest at Cairo IL raised to 50 feet as of last night which would be a top 25 crest...

I won't bother to post new crest updates until later tuesday since its all highly dependent where the heaviest rain falls

..the system Friday will be more progressive but still another inch or so..

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH  
647 AM EST SUN FEB 10 2019  

 

HYDROLOGY  
  
THERE IS SOLID CLUSTERING AND AGREEMENT BETWEEN EPS AND   
GEFS ON A 1.5" TO 2.5" RAIN EVENT ENDING BY NOON ON TUESDAY. GIVEN   
THE OHIO RIVER IS RISING AND WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF   
THIS EVENT, THIS IS OF MUCH CONCERN.  HEAVY RAIN ON A RISING RIVER   
CREST CAN MAKE FOR VERY DIFFICULT CREST ASSESSMENTS AND POTENTIAL   
FOR CHAOTIC/UNPREDICTABLE RIVER RISES PARTICULARLY IF RATES ARE   
HEAVY.  NAEFS-BASED MMEFS DATA FROM THE 09.00Z RUNS ARE CONCERNING   
FOR THE OHIO RIVER, ESPECIALLY AT CINCINNATI, WHERE THERE IS DECENT   
PROBABILITIES OF A CREST IN OR ABOVE MODERATE LEVELS IF RAINFALL   
MATERIALIZES AS CURRENTLY FORECAST.  EXACT NUMBERS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN -  
 SO THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY.  THERE IS A GOOD SIGNAL   
ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF THE OHIO RIVER TRIBUTARIES THAT SOME OF   
THESE WILL COME BACK INTO FLOOD AS A RESULT OF THE EXPECTED QPF.  IN   
PARTICULAR, NEAR THE OHIO RIVER - LIKE THE LITTLE MIAMI, BRUSH   
CREEK, HOCKING, AND LOWER PORTIONS OF THE GREAT MIAMI AND SCIOTO.   
SOME OF THESE ARE STILL IN FLOOD AS OF THIS WRITING.  SO THOSE IN   
FLOOD EITHER BRIEFLY DIP OUT OF FLOOD, OR STAY IN FLOOD MUCH LONGER.   
THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO JOIN A WHOLE SLEW OF OFFICES   
ISSUING FLOOD WATCHES TODAY - EVEN AT ADMITTEDLY SOME LONGER   
TIME RANGES.  
  

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Last February saw record rainfall and major flooding along the Ohio River. Got to wonder before all is said and done if this February won’t exceed last February in terms of rainfall and flooding in the Ohio Valley?

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it looks like the 72 HR  forecast of 1.5 to 2.5 inches over most of the basin with isolated higher amounts over the west is panning out

Flood watches are up from the mouth of the OH river all the way back into west Virginia!!

2 inches will fall over many square miles of the watershed..which actually causes more rises then  scattered higher amounts (ie 5 inches here and there but nothing most areas)

 

.again it might not be a good idea to obsess about river crests into maybe weds morning after all  the observe rainfall is factored in.. I have noticed river crest change alot when dependent of future rainfall forecasts even during the event

but one can bet at least "higher end moderate flooding" along  the OH over the next 10 days 

another system later in the week will produce perhaps 2/3 of an inch basin wide on average...not an excessive amount but most of it will just add to the  run off

 

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crest at cairo now 53 feet right at major stage,..18th highest on  record

a couple weak systems might dump 1/4 inch NE watershed to 3/4 inch in the TN valley this weekend

concern is in the 6/7 day range ...,major overrunning event possible over the SE portion of the watershed and north gulf coast states...with not too much precip north of the river

however, models trends seem to be inching this NW with each run..meaning more of the watershed will get more rain

 

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