rochesterdave Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 That band staying pretty far north of BUF and not showing much sign of sliding south. I kinda expected it to be into metro by now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Woke up and found nothing new additional on the ground and the band over Niagara Falls. Lmfao what a joke. No one called for the band to still be this far north at this time. No meteorologist, no model. I knew yesterday when I looked back and saw how far upstream winds were still SW to SSW that this thing was gonna be north and for quite a while. What a joke here in the Southtowns. When that band finally does drop south it’s gonna fly right through South Buffalo, Lackawanna, West Seneca and settle over Hamburg and OP just like that map from channel 7 somebody posted that the blue minimum right over us as usual. Erg this sucks. I’m trying not to complain because I know there’s some on here who are having a lot worse of a season than I, but it’s frustrating when it seems like a big one is near and we have 2” for the event while 8 miles to my north is at about 14-16” and the band shows no signs of dropping south anytime soon. Those maps the NWS put out yesterday of 24-30”+ right over my head really got me going now too because I’ll make a bet right now that South Buffalo and West Seneca see less than 8” total for the event and I’ll go ahead and say Amherst jackpots for northtowns with 25” and Hamburg jackpots to our south with 28” once the band finally does shift south and locks in. So frustrating but I guess that’s lake effect... okay end rant. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Over 2 feet and counting. Still snowing. Looks to be steady state the next 5 or 6 hours. Going to measure the snowpack when I snowblow the driveway in an hour. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: Over 2 feet and counting. Still snowing. Looks to be steady state the next 5 or 6 hours. Going to measure the snowpack when I snowblow the driveway in an hour. Unreal. 2” here. Congrats though you northtowners diserved a good event and this is finally it for you guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Man gotta give credit to the HRDPS only model that showed the band this far up north.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Just plowed about 6” here in southeast Clarence. Band looks to be on the move south a little, snow has been picking up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Man barely a foot of snow so far in Cheektowaga, 7" overnight and 4 inches before that.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 According to the zone forecast for Nrn.Erie they're expecting additional 6-12" today another 4-8" tonight and 4-7" on Thursday. let's see how that pans out lmao.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 10" new here between about midnight and 7AM, putting me over 20" for the event. Snow+ continues, flake size still solid, and absolutely no wind. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Band shifting quickly now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 BTW. Just for posterity. Roc has had exactly zero. That advisory is silly. Buf should be getting into it now. How long? Congrats Think Snow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 10 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Band shifting quickly now. Yep right on schedule! Through the transition zone to settle into the deeper Southtowns. Few more years and I’m out of West Seneca and never looking back! And dont feel bad Dave, Ive only got 2 inches and I’m 8 miles away from the areas that got 20”+ . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Just eyeballing until I go out to measure but looks like another 3” overnight so close around 6” total so far... Morning AFD from BUF. Guess we’ll have to see how long it sits over us and how intense it can get!Before we get into the details about temperatures and the brutalwind chill values...lets address the potentially paralyzing lakesnows.As of 12z...a 220 flow was in the process of veering to 230-240 inthe wake of an arctic cold front that cleared the Niagara Frontierwithin the past two hours. This will allow a somewhat disorganizedtwin band of moderately heavy lake snow to consolidate into a singleplume of heavy steady lake snow that will sit over the BUF metroarea and its immediate suburbs for several hours this morning. Theband is forecast to settle a bit further south this afternoon...concentrating its impacts on the Southtowns and southern parts ofBUF metro. Snowfall rates of one to two inches an hour willaccompany the band...with rates of 3 inches an hour possible. Ifthis were a November or December band...rates could even be higherdue to stronger convergence over an even warmer lake. While theconvective depth will be over 10k feet by midday... the extent ofthe frigid air will actually limit snow accumulations. Rather thanhaving large dendrites like the band had overnight...the shrinkingdendritic growth zone will lead to more plates and columns...whichare more dense and accumulate at a somewhat slower rate.Nevertheless...daytime snow accumulations will approach a foot nearthe Buffalo metro area and points just south and east. The new snowwill combine with wind gusts to 40 mph so that significant blowingand drifting will be likely. In other words...near blizzardconditions can be expected at times.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Iteresting "case study" for me is as i'm still trying to figure out what wind direction i can succeed on lol We have a 16" snow depth in DT Altmar and nearly double that here just south of "Richland", difference of about 3.5 miles.. Will start to look at the meso-models more closely, NWS going with 12"-20" tomorrow at the moment.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Idk man that thing looks like it’s about ready to break up and move onshore..unless another band is about to form? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 I was originally surprised that BUF hadn't issue a blizzard warning like they did in 2014, but the winds have been underwhelming compared to that event and the 85 event. There hasn't been a single ob of blizzard conditions at BUF for this whole event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 4 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Yep right on schedule! Through the transition zone to settle into the deeper Southtowns. Few more years and I’m out of West Seneca and never looking back! And dont feel bad Dave, Ive only got 2 inches and I’m 8 miles away from the areas that got 20”+ . Transition zone in effect till further notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2019 Author Share Posted January 30, 2019 7 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Yep right on schedule! Through the transition zone to settle into the deeper Southtowns. Few more years and I’m out of West Seneca and never looking back! And dont feel bad Dave, Ive only got 2 inches and I’m 8 miles away from the areas that got 20”+ . Im still at 1.4”. We never had a chance at this band until today all models showed SSW/sw flow until this afternoon. Wsw flow locks in from now until fri morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Can’t be worse than Alden lol they had 0.8” so far for this event haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Yep right on schedule! Through the transition zone to settle into the deeper Southtowns. Few more years and I’m out of West Seneca and never looking back! And dont feel bad Dave, Ive only got 2 inches and I’m 8 miles away from the areas that got 20”+ .Slow it down kid! We still have all day here. Models missed the northern shift last night maybe they are too far south to early today? I’m thinking we’re still good for another 12”+ today!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 1 minute ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Slow it down kid! We still have all day here. Models missed the northern shift last night maybe they are too far south to early today? I’m thinking we’re still good for another 12”+ today! . Idk I think Ayuud I’d right. That band looks like it’s gonna fall off the lake and a new one will likely form just to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2019 Author Share Posted January 30, 2019 Today features the best dynamics for intense lake effect, minus the ice forming. If this was December we would be talking 3-5” rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2019 Author Share Posted January 30, 2019 As of 12z...a 220 flow was in the process of veering to 230-240 in the wake of an arctic cold front that cleared the Niagara Frontier within the past two hours. This will allow a somewhat disorganized twin band of moderately heavy lake snow to consolidate into a single plume of heavy steady lake snow that will sit over the BUF metro area and its immediate suburbs for several hours this morning. The band is forecast to settle a bit further south this afternoon... concentrating its impacts on the Southtowns and southern parts of BUF metro. Snowfall rates of one to two inches an hour will accompany the band...with rates of 3 inches an hour possible. If this were a November or December band...rates could even be higher due to stronger convergence over an even warmer lake. While the convective depth will be over 10k feet by midday... the extent of the frigid air will actually limit snow accumulations. Rather than having large dendrites like the band had overnight...the shrinking dendritic growth zone will lead to more plates and columns...which are more dense and accumulate at a somewhat slower rate. Nevertheless...daytime snow accumulations will approach a foot near the Buffalo metro area and points just south and east. The new snow will combine with wind gusts to 40 mph so that significant blowing and drifting will be likely. In other words...near blizzard conditions can be expected at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 I don’t blame Devin man just look at that snow hole right over W.Seneca lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2019 Author Share Posted January 30, 2019 7 minutes ago, ayuud11 said: I don’t blame Devin man just look at that snow hole right over W.Seneca lol Our seasonal snowfall is pretty similar, just a few inches apart. I guess we will see what this event gives. I think the band locks in on Metro into southtowns until tomorrow. KBUF has more snow then the immediate southtowns this year. Have to go to to EA, Boston, Colden to get more. OP/West Seneca/Hamburg/Eden all have less then KBUF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Our seasonal snowfall is pretty similar, just a few inches apart. I guess we will see what this event gives. I think the band locks in on Metro into southtowns until tomorrow. KBUF has more snow then the immediate southtowns this year. Have to go to to EA, Boston, Colden to get more. OP/West Seneca/Hamburg/Eden all have less then KBUF. That's just a regression to climo anyway. The last several years have been very southtowns oriented, more so than climo would suggest. BUF and west seneca are almost the same climo, I think OP and Hamburg would be a bit more than BUF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2019 Author Share Posted January 30, 2019 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: That's just a regression to climo anyway. The last several years have been very southtowns oriented, more so than climo would suggest. BUF and west seneca are almost the same climo, I think OP and Hamburg would be a bit more than BUF. Disagree, Hamburg gets much more then KBUF. Go look at Buffalo snowstorm book, so many huge Southtown events compared to KBUF. I’d say we average 125-130” a year. KBUF 95-100”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 3.4” at 8am measure.Storm total is at 6.4”Snow on the Ground at 13.5”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Disagree, Hamburg gets much more then KBUF. Go look at Buffalo snowstorm book, so many huge Southtown events compared to KBUF. I’d say we average 125-130” a year. KBUF 95-100”. Depends where, I think. Out by southwestern its only a bit more, but it increases as you get further east and go up in elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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