Typhoon Tip Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: I was sleeping when you sent this out, but our morning sounding is verifying like 6,000 feet deep (700 mb is like -1C) and I would say we're probably in the heart of the CAD. Yeah.. now in retrospect it is... it does atone - ..I was looking around at obs about 8 ... 8:15 last night and I was thinking how off this BL handling looked. As soon as "any" low pressure at all even hinted at approaching the south coast we triggered this impressive pulse of ageo mass here. We are 15 f'um degrees everywhere and that air is flooding downtown Boston within the hour down here. I love this kind of thing ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 23 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: That's exactly what will happen in this storm. The very low Arctic dews are going to be advecting south during the event. This is where I think models are the worst. They put too much emphasis on latent heat in that scenario and not enough on advection of dews. Word! Here is the closest I personally recall hedging myself .. . " Now... out here in reality... this is probably a ice storm and the models RGEM/NAM...etc... probably too liberal with the polar penetration of warmth at llvs anyway, because the standard BL correction should be applied. " ...which other than the ice storm reference... I was in your camp all along, as were others. This was man correction over machine ftw on this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 10 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: What is this stuff 1/2 new moderate 25 degrees Did it get washed away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 4 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Did it get washed away? he flipped to rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 52 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: he flipped to rain? Had 32.5-33 degree rain for majority Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 2 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said: he flipped to rain? Very cold...rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 So, did the pattern really change? And im not being sarcastic, so please dont read that and infer a sarcastic tone. Still no blocking, still getting cutters or NNE jackpot storms. This is the same storm track, it doesnt appear anything has changed. Now we are going into the 4th week of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 On 1/20/2019 at 8:56 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Did it get washed away? Nope still 1.5 to 2 of concrete left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Measured around 6.5-7" IMBY yesterday AM but the ensuing hours of sleet and wind knocked in back a bit. Measuring earlier this afternoon it was around 6" of very dense pack. Hope it holds through the mild up. 0F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxextreme Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 7:21 PM, OceanStWx said: I want to say something snarky, but we do. So does BOX. Since we started probabilistic snow we’ve documented this. My SOO’s gut check is: is there is any real chance that your forecast is too low? If you say no, then you have a high bias. OceanStWX, No offense wasnt meant by it (and I believe by reading none was taken). I have had the opportunity to visit your WFO while studying meteorology at Plymouth State University. Great facility and great forecasters there. One of my old coworkers lived in New Ipswich, NH and I lived in Ashby, MA. We were basically neighbors (1 mile down the road) and we would always go back and forth on how BOX anf GYX both predicted their snow totals. I also agree, BOX does tend to over predict at times as well (as I am sure all WFOs tend to do at one point or another). It was just amusing to see that southern NH tends (especially in my neck of the woods) gets over predicted quite a bit. I do agree with your gut check though, and it is something I tend to do as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 9:08 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Latest trends are to limit phasing owed to compressed flow, and an encroaching PV. Its going to be fun few weeks. GO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 I know, how sad...nothing ever happened like anybody thought. Ultimate tease and scam this winter has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 49 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I know, how sad...nothing ever happened like anybody thought. Ultimate tease and scam this winter has been. It’s a total joke.....comical almost.....even Hawaii got good snows lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.