HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: 3 km nam sets up coastal front from Kingston NH to Salem NH to about Tyngsboro at midnite -1 A.M. separates teens and temps around 30 pretty deep fetch of ENE winds to near 495 after midnite on nammy btv wrf is not as bullish on l.l warmth but 0z isn’t out I'm excited to be in NE MA for this. Too close to the ocean but might see some mid-level magic for a while before a flip to sleet. I just need to pace myself and stay up late enough to see some +SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Subsidence would have to be decently north of that cf. Seems like the subby bullseye was like Rochester wsw to MHT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Congrats Dendrite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 We have some experimental ensemble guidance (basically time lag the shit out of everything available in the short term) that shows an interesting story for PWM. It has a very high likelihood (~70%) for 12" of snow, but a low (~30%) likelihood for 16". I think that's a really nice forecast right now. I feel comfortable we hit a foot, less comfortable we hit that 18" top of the range on our website. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 See my post above re: steadily retreating confluence in successive guidance runs... thru 24 hrs, Euro is doing the same. I think this should yield a more NW track unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Congrats Dendrite Decent crushy crush for NW MA too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: Decent crushy crush for NW MA too. It should thump for a time. Given that this is a WAA regime on steroids, it should pound 1+/hr for a while in the good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 That super ensemble is like a 90th/10th at PWM of 9-18" and at MHT 7-16" But those are the only two cities we have south of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Trends for BOS are interesting. It doesn't change the high chances for 4", but the chances for 6 and 8" have been decreasing. 12" all but disappeared in the latest run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Trends for BOS are interesting. It doesn't change the high chances for 4", but the chances for 6 and 8" have been decreasing. 12" all but disappeared in the latest run. Front ender looks good. Also, very dynamic day Sunday with a short term flash blizzard in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2019 Author Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Trends for BOS are interesting. It doesn't change the high chances for 4", but the chances for 6 and 8" have been decreasing. 12" all but disappeared in the latest run. How about KLWM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: It should thump for a time. Given that this is a WAA regime on steroids, it should pound 1+/hr for a while in the good stuff. Heading towards 12 years in Greenfield I have become very well acquainted with the nuances of SWFE type storms and needless to say I am very excited to watch this unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Front ender looks good. Also, very dynamic day Sunday with a short term flash blizzard in the afternoon. Definitely a short term threat there. It's all about the overlap between +SN and winds increasing. Also a nice signal for a flash freeze in and around BOS too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: How about KLWM? Sorry, not a location they run these for. We have to pick and choose cities because the ensemble is run out of DTX and they don't have the server space for a bunch of locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 TO MANY OF YOU AND WEATHER people are changing every time models comes . watch storm to colder than what models show . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Front ender looks good. Also, very dynamic day Sunday with a short term flash blizzard in the afternoon. We pound for several hours and it will finally look like winter in Boston metro... but those higher totals > 8" are looking less likely. I had called 6-12 for Boston metro but barring a Messenger shuffle east (and this is a good synoptic setup for that), 4-8 looks more accurate from guidance tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2019 Author Share Posted January 19, 2019 Trimmed the southern edge, but same n of pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2019 Author Share Posted January 19, 2019 Subsidence zone not as prnounced. Its actually a hair better for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, wxsniss said: We pound for several hours and it will finally look like winter in Boston metro... but those higher totals > 8" are looking less likely. I had called 6-12 for Boston metro but barring a Messenger shuffle east (and this is a good synoptic setup for that), 4-8 looks more accurate from guidance tonight. Keep hope alive. I suspect guidance over corrected tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Trimmed the southern edge, but same n of pike. Thermals looks the same from what ive seen so far in CT 850, 925, surface. But the QPF is cut back quite a bit compared to 12Z at the southern edge which is why those totals are cut back there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajisai Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Trimmed the southern edge, but same n of pike.Looks like blue moves into BOS area, southern points. I hate when the pike is in the borderline area like the euro is showing. I can literally walk to the the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajisai Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Keep hope alive. I suspect guidance over corrected tonight.The anti-Harwich guidance. Jot happening names. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2019 Author Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Keep hope alive. I suspect guidance over corrected tonight. Believe it or not, the GEM, GFS and EURO all give me 10"...how is that for consensus lol The NAM is the only dissent, at like 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: Thermals looks the same from what ive seen so far in CT 850, 925, surface. But the QPF is cut back quite a bit compared to 12Z at the southern edge which is why those totals are cut back there. ? Crushed with rain, Boston has a helluva ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2019 Author Share Posted January 19, 2019 This trend is over. I'm confident of that. Wouldn't be surprised to see some slight improvements for the GTG tmw. You guys can watch well I put my arrow maps together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This trend is over. I'm confident of that. Wouldn't be surprised to see some slight improvements for the GTG tmw. You guys can watch well I put my arrow maps together QPF is stout as hell. You may get 8 of snow and 2 inches of sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This trend is over. I'm confident of that. Wouldn't be surprised to see some slight improvements for the GTG tmw. You guys can watch well I put my arrow maps together That's tomorrow? jeez great timing to discuss this storm and right before any traffic/road issues as well. Your area looks good for 8-12 on all models it seems, pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2019 Author Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: ? Crushed with rain, Boston has a helluva ice storm I think my area looks to get about the largest WE pack according to that map....10" of snow, then like 3" of sleet....1.9" liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2019 Author Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: That's tomorrow? jeez great timing to discuss this storm and right before any traffic/road issues as well. Your area looks good for 8-12 on all models it seems, pretty much. You should head up...ORH isn't that far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: You should head up...ORH isn't that far. let me see google maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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