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nj2va

January Medium/Long Range Discussion

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16 minutes ago, Ji said:

we are getting close to Ians sun angle season so we better come up big between Feb 1 and PD weekend. For me after, PD weekend, winter is pretty much over. You have to have a really special storm after that to get me excited. Most of our March storms end up unproducing

The last few years (March 2015, 2017, 2018) have been among the best winter months of the whole season. Especially for snow, but even for cold. Sure sun angle causes problems, but around and before march 21 it's still more likely to be snowing when the sun is set than when it's not, and the storms in march always seemed juiced, so that the rates seem to overcome sun angle problems anyway. 

So a small climo reminder (For Baltimore at least)

The probability of precipitation falling as snow on Dec 14 is 4%, and on March 14 it's 4%. So if you were hoping for snow in Dec you should be hoping for snow in March.

Right now we are basically at peak climo. In Baltimore at least, when there is precipitation around Jan 20, 13% of the time it's snow. We are in a slightly colder period right now, so maybe we've bumped our chances of snow to 20%.

While it's great to look at long range models, and there is some incredible analysis of them on this site, they only have so much predictive power. Snowfall is so non-linear (i.e. freezing line makes all the difference) that having the temperature off by the slightest bit and the track off by the slightest bit can be the difference between 55 and rain, and 25 and snow. We know almost certainly that there is going to be a fairly big storm this weekend with a lot of moisture. Beyond that we really don't know all that much.

Let's just sit back and wait to see. Crazier things have happened, including the snow totals that just occurred, as many others have pointed out. We'll know more tomorrow and Thursday even though it's appearing less likely that we see only snow.

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

The pattern is changing....the cutters are cutting farther West now. Thanks MJO.

 

So with that said it seems there is quite a bit of confidence that it locks in as a sustained neg NAO. Seems to contradict and I dont mean you or anyone personally. I would take the neg NAO unicorn with a grain of salt still until it is fully established. That's just my amateur conservative approach. I'm sure I'm wrong and way off base.

That isnt necessarily a horrible thing for my area. If they cut further west with some entrenched cold air we can get a nice front end thump then dry slot. It happens quite often actually. 

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