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December 8-10 Storm Discussion

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10 minutes ago, John1122 said:

They rarely mention us unless it's supposed to snow here and no where else. They also seem to divide the area often by saying the north or the south part of their area. But they seem to refer to Tri as their north. I'm further north than Tri but they don't seem to mean this area when they say north.

I hate that MRX does that. Is there anyway you could send them a message regarding the lack of acknowledgement on the northern plateau?

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1 minute ago, Blue Ridge said:


Was just about to mention this. There is a sweet spot for this 850 low, and for East TN to cash in it often involves WNC taking it on the chin WRT the warm nose.

This happened during one of our events in 2014 or 2015. They were predicted to get epic totals in the upstate of South Carolina into Charlotte. Instead it ended up being a sleet fest and East Tn did much better than initially predicted.

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2 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said:

I hate that MRX does that. Is there anyway you could send them a message regarding the lack of acknowledgement on the northern plateau?

I honestly never felt like bothering with it. I usually read the Jackson Ky AFD disco, they will almost always mentioned their areas that border me and I get very close to the same weather as they do. They also smoke MRX when it comes to properly issuing advisory/warning products.

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21 minutes ago, 1234snow said:

18z NAM clown for hour 84.

Pretty solid I must say. Haven’t had time to look at specifics. c32550367fb17227ae3269635d523c3b.jpg

Insert:  Sanford and Son...It's the big one! gif.  I realize that many of the extreme solutions won't verify, especially the NAM.  However, this week beats the last two winters combined in term of a decent storm to track and discuss for our backyards.  Been a lean past couple of years up this way. 

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Just glanced at GSP's disco and updated maps. AVL peeps are on weeniecide watch. Total accumulation was cut by ~60% between the AM and PM forecast packages across WNC. 

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5 minutes ago, Blue Ridge said:

Just glanced at GSP's disco and updated maps. AVL peeps are on weeniecide watch. Total accumulation was cut by ~60% between the AM and PM forecast packages across WNC. 

Ouch...

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JKL came out and said 4-8 in their Southeast counties look likely, 2-4 in their SW areas, and 2 in their northern areas. Said if the NAM was right, much more on tap. They mentioned that ratios might be as low as 5:1 with the snow. So shaving 50 percent off some of the snow maps might be prudent.

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Interesting "battle" shaping up between the models over NE TN.  JMA/ICON/GFS vs CMC/UKMET/Euro.  FV3 is like Switzerland.  Since it is a beta model at the moment, I will allow it to have neutrality.   NAM is a lean for the good guys.  Just isn't time for it to come off the bench.  I can't see the temp profile on the JMA, but I assume it is warm based on its slp position over Alabama.  

\

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The NAM map from tropical is basically all ice in NW Tennessee. It'd be a horrible ice storm there if it verified. No small amount in NE Tennessee either on it. It ratios out much differently than TT map.

 

zr_acc.us_ov.png

Ice free snow map.

snku_acc.us_ov.png

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1 minute ago, Blue Ridge said:

Friendship ended w/ GFS.

It was a match doomed to fail anyway.  Just never knew where you stood until it was too late.  You are better off.

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Just now, John1122 said:

The NAM map from tropical is basically all ice in NW Tennessee. It'd be a horrible ice storm there if it verified. No small amount in NE Tennessee either on it. It ratios out much differently than TT map.

 

zr_acc.us_ov.png

Ice free snow map.

snku_acc.us_ov.png

So basically it is have a nice snowstorm or lose power indefinitely in Johnson City?

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6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I sense folks in NE TN going to their favorite wet bulb calculator very soon.  Seriously though, if this comes in at night...this could be a mess up here.

It’s definitely coming in over night.  Between midnight and 7am from the looks of it ......

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I sense folks in NE TN going to their favorite wet bulb calculator very soon.  Seriously though, if this comes in at night...this could be a mess up here.

RIP 321 corridor.

 

Seems like if I fart in the wrong direction, I lose power in my neighborhood. Not sure I want .30” of freezing rain and a few inches of cement.

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33 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

It’s definitely coming in over night.  Between midnight and 7am from the looks of it ......

Which night is it coming in ???

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Just now, AndyHamachek said:

Is pigeon forge still good and back towards knocksville 

It's just according to which model you can trust. Right now the NWS says those areas will be trouble free, but if you go to Gatlinburg Saturday night or Sunday, maybe or maybe not. As bad as that sounds, this thing is on a razor thin margin between a snow or ice storm or a rainer.

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Just now, John1122 said:

I feel like the models are locked into their solutions and are either going to score or be wrong. Not sure if they are going to flinch at this point.

I agree, it’s awfully suspicious how solid each model has been with its solutions.  Each one is poking its chest out to see who’s top dog it seems. 

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13 minutes ago, John1122 said:

It's just according to which model you can trust. Right now the NWS says those areas will be trouble free, but if you go to Gatlinburg Saturday night or Sunday, maybe or maybe not. As bad as that sounds, this thing is on a razor thin margin between a snow or ice storm or a rainer.

Ober might be fun this weekend.  Cades cove outta be pretty sweet too!

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