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December 8-10 Storm Discussion


Holston_River_Rambler

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58 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

I noticed that for MBY on the 18z 3k NAM.  It looked like a band developed at the tail end (almost like a squall line) and lifted north throughout northeast TN.  The snow shows as red, the highest possible intensity.  Pretty crazy!

Heaviest hourly fall I've witnessed was about 6" on 2-14-1986. No doubt rates were higher at times within that hour.

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FWIW the 18z RGEM (colder) is currently doing better with surface temps than the NAM. @BlunderStorm for my part I'm in wait and see how it all develops mode, but hope you get as much snow as possible!

Agree with Powell. If RAOB network soundings are causing shifts one way or the other, the southern parts of the vort are in Mexico and as far as I can tell there are no soundings there: http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html 

I wonder if the mountains out that way are messing with vort. circulation and once it all comes out into the plains of TX it will reconsolidate any? Can't be much of an 850 low if the land is above 5000 feet. I have to say I'm happy with the solutions right now. Some heavy wet snow falling is a win for me. But can't help but wonder if a few more changes are in store on Hi-res mesoscale models once the whole shebang is in TX by 12 - 18z tomorrow. 

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Noting that it was an outlier among it's ensembles with it's fast/flat solution, WPC didn't even use the GFS as part of their multi-model blend after the 12z runs today.

Assuming 0z model runs (FV3, NAM, EURO) hold serve or continue their trends, we’ll either see the GFS double down or shift drastically. Either way, I foresee major changes to the AM forecast package.
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13 minutes ago, Bango said:

I like the nam out to 30, maybe 35-50 miles south of 18z, touch colder I think, similiar looking precip shield

The precipitation shield looks to be  1 to 2 counties further north, the back edge of the storm looks a little less robust, temperatures seem to be 1 or 2 degrees colder, and the low itself is little quicker as well. EDIT: The precipitation does not seem to be expanded much more to the north as later in the run the 18z made up the difference compared to 0z. The next play of the drive is the NAM 3km version.

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The NAM 3km starts off a little warmer than the 12km though after a quick bump of sleet/rain for an hour it transitions to all snow. EDIT: Warmer temperatures in the late morning begin to prevail and areas shift back to rain/ice/sleet. As the low begins to pivot NE, SWVA holds on to light to moderate snow for a few more hours after things calm down a little in NETN I'm not sure why the upper levels are such a mess after the low is to our SE. The event looks more limited in duration compared to the 12km for some areas.

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HRRR shows snow in northwest tn/ark by 12z tomorrow with slight pockets of snow popping up in southeast TN around the same time.  Temp profiles are coming in cooler through 12z as well.  Hr13 shows sleet starting to fall in the northern edges of my county as well as a heavy band of snow moving into middle tn( both central and northern portions of middle tn)

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I've got the storm (famous last words) and now I'm hoping for the storm to do as hard of a pivot as possible on modeling. If your in southern Tennessee the 3km this time around was a little bit of a letdown but not too bad. I'm calling for 4-7  in Honaker but I would sway away from prediction outside of my town with my limited knowledge. I hope 0z at least continues the status quo. For the past 2 days in a row 0z has been a pain and 12z has been a blessing. Let's hope we break that trend tonight. NEXT UP: RGEM and ICON

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The 3k NAM is back to the Euro from the other day above 3000 in Campbell County. It spit out 34 inches of snow over Cross Mountain. Even ratio'd it's 28 inches. Ratio'd it's 2-4+ on the western Plateau. 3-7 in the lower elevations of Campbell/Claiborne with yardsticks needed above 2500 feet and climbing into the 7-9 range towards the TRI area. Knox ratio'd to 1.5 in SW Knox and 3 to 4 in far north and northeast Knox. There is an odd cranny just west of Johnson County in NE Tn that it only shows 1 inch. Not sure if it's downsloping or what. Sometimes the 3k almost seems to try to hard with terrain features.

 

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The RGEM is once again a heavy wet mess with the most confusing precipitation map you can conceive of. This is the run that if your positioned well is epic but knocks down your trees and leaves you without power for a week. The low looks further north on it and less consolidated. If your in southern Tennessee you don't want this solution. As for me on this run I get stuck with some overlying warm air over the clinch river valley and get "iced over real gud." Models aren't perfect so I doubt this would exclusively apply to me so it looks pretty fun.

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8 minutes ago, Blue Ridge said:

12km NAM gives a foot plus to Unicoi, Carter, Washington, Sullivan, Johnson, and Hancock, as well as the favored mountain slopes of Greene County and into the Smokies. Also drops what appears to be 30” or greater on Brevard, NC.


.

That's the clown version of course. If you want a more honest snow total check pivotals snow depth map. It always tempers my expectations. However, I believe it was a day or two ago I overheard on the SE forum a meteorologist talking about temperatures at 850mb and 700mb and how modeling will often depict a heavy snow as sleet if a layer in the atmosphere is 33. When in all actuality the snow survives the conditions and continues to fall.

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