OceanStWx Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 7 hours ago, Snow88 said: Gefs has been way better than the eps I agree. Eps are already correcting to a colder solution in the long range. I have no clue what's wrong with it but it's doing awful. I mean we do this all the time, but it's not. Red line on top in the Euro. It's always higher (better). Likewise, the Euro and EPS top the SLP verification. Very few times do Euro members show up as clunkers on individual days. Seasons over the last year? EPS wins again, except for summer. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Scooter likes to push buttons, but that shouldn't be confused with a lack of objectivity. And how does the pattern look coming up? Deep winter? Not sure what whineminster wants me to say. It looks better near and after Christmas, but not ideal. We’ll probably play with fire. Hopefully we are on the good side. People have gone mad over the last few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Like 1999-00? 3 weeks of deep winter with the rest awful. Yikes. This will get ugly if we can’t hit on something before year’s end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: I mean we do this all the time, but it's not. Red line on top in the Euro. It's always higher (better). Likewise, the Euro and EPS top the SLP verification. Very few times do Euro members show up as clunkers on individual days. Seasons over the last year? EPS wins again, except for summer. Man just winning right there. Sorry weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Higher is better, always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Mic drop. Right on Snow88’s head. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: And how does the pattern look coming up? Deep winter? Not sure what whineminster wants me to say. It looks better near and after Christmas, but not ideal. We’ll probably play with fire. Hopefully we are on the good side. People have gone mad over the last few weeks. Snow withdrawals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Man just winning right there. Sorry weenies. No one is winning. You can't just admit that the GEFS has been kicking the EPS ass of late. It's okay though. We still love you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Mic drop. Right on Snow88’s head. Wolfie awaits his turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: And how does the pattern look coming up? Deep winter? Not sure what whineminster wants me to say. It looks better near and after Christmas, but not ideal. We’ll probably play with fire. Hopefully we are on the good side. People have gone mad over the last few weeks. I think it blows until xmas, then gradient holiday week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zach’s Pop Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: No one is weenie. You can't just admit that the GEFS has been kicking the EPS ass of late. It's okay though. We still love you. Notice late last week we were told it’s shades closed for two weeks, maybe three. Nothing before Christmas. Hopefully the last week winter returns. Now the euro huggers started backtracking. Well maybe Christmas. Maybe the 24th. Maybe by the 21st if we are lucky. Predictable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Just now, Zach’s Pop said: Notice late last week we were told it’s shades closed for two weeks, maybe three. Nothing before Christmas. Hopefully the last week winter returns. Now the euro huggers started backtracking. Well maybe Christmas. Maybe the 24th. Maybe by the 21st if we are lucky. Predictable That's semantics, dude...general idea has been consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, Zach’s Pop said: Notice late last week we were told it’s shades closed for two weeks, maybe three. Nothing before Christmas. Hopefully the last week winter returns. Now the euro huggers started backtracking. Well maybe Christmas. Maybe the 24th. Maybe by the 21st if we are lucky. Predictable I still think a better pattern will evolve by the 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Wait WPC desk? um.....are they judging their own work, who did this analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That's semantics, dude...general idea has been consistent. It's hyperbole. It's always looked like we could get back into an okay pattern by 12/22-23 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zach’s Pop Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That's semantics, dude...general idea has been consistent. Semantics? So a three week torch is now reduced to 7-10 days? I realize for some it’s going to be hard to admit they were wrong but when you hug one model and the MJO, you lose some. No biggie. In the end when it’s snowing and cold nobody will really care. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Just now, Zach’s Pop said: Semantics? So a three week torch is now reduced to 7-10 days? I realize for some it’s going to be hard to admit they were wrong but when you hug one model and the MJO, you lose some. No biggie. In the end when it’s snowing and cold nobody will really care. Where are you getting 3 weeks from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Zach’s Pop said: Semantics? So a three week torch is now reduced to 7-10 days? I realize for some it’s going to be hard to admit they were wrong but when you hug one model and the MJO, you lose some. No biggie. In the end when it’s snowing and cold nobody will really care. Aren’t you in PA? You’re fooked in a gradient look. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Where are you getting 3 weeks from? His Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: His Which was pulled out of his fanny. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, Zach’s Pop said: Semantics? So a three week torch is now reduced to 7-10 days? I realize for some it’s going to be hard to admit they were wrong but when you hug one model and the MJO, you lose some. No biggie. In the end when it’s snowing and cold nobody will really care. No one called for a 3 week torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: His I think there were a couple of posts about 3 weeks, punting Dec, torches etc but in most part its this upcoming weekend thats starts it but as we thought there are some deep cold days sparsed in between. seems very very typical of Dec to me . I don't think about deep winter down here until the solstice, anything else before is gravy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Go back and read it from 12/1 https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51756-december-discussion/?page=30 I don't think any of those ideas are unreasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: I think there were a couple of posts about 3 weeks, punting Dec, torches etc but in most part its this upcoming weekend thats starts it but as we thought there are some deep cold days sparsed in between. seems very very typical of Dec to me . I don't think about deep winter down here until the solstice, anything else before is gravy. Wake me up around New Years. I'm heading for warmer pastures 12/21 and return 12/27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 I will say this even with some high overnight mins its going to be hard to erase these negative departures with any model you chose. What does suck is most warmer days are either raining or cloudy we can't seem to get a Delicious Dendrite Down slope dandy. A 60 degree sunny warm weekend day before Christmas would be sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 All right well anyways, I agree with Will that maybe there could be something around the 23rd or 24th give or take. Certainly nothing set in stone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 21 minutes ago, Snow88 said: No one is winning. You can't just admit that the GEFS has been kicking the EPS ass of late. It's okay though. We still love you. It isn't though. The 12z GFS/GEFS has been slightly ahead of the 00z Euro/EPS, but that's not exactly a ringing endorsement. It's 12 hours newer. The 00z GFS/GEFS has still be lagging the Euro over the first part of December. 14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Wait WPC desk? um.....are they judging their own work, who did this analysis Yes, the scientists are verifying their own work. We don't just chuck forecasts out and forget about them. We do go back and look at how we did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 The problem here is that people perceive the term wintry meaning all snow all the time. Jerry nailed it just didn't snow. I mean top 5 coldest Nov 12th to today period from DC to Maine with many top 1, as far as snow goes some no but that's not what some here want to hear, but it was still very much a winter air mass . Perhaps it will snow in the warmer regime and melt quickly, some love that others not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: . Yes, the scientists are verifying their own work. We don't just chuck forecasts out and forget about them. We do go back and look at how we did. No independent scientists to verify WPC , kind of shaky and subjective but OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: No independent scientists to verify WPC , kind of shaky and subjective but OK How so? They take their SLP products and verify them against modeled and observed. Nothing subjective about it. Way more objective than NWS forecasters that issued the warnings deciding what number of trees down verifies their SVR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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