CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 shear would never cause a band to just die like it did, but I could be wrong bro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 39 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: First taste of the tug. Just wait until your first real LES event, I’m excited for you. Thanks! I posted video on FB of it moving through...and all my local friends here replied with, "This is nothing. You haven't seen anything yet." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 I can literally walk down the road and it would be snowing heavily, lol, that's why ya gotta love this stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 No one posted anything about the system for Monday and Tuesday and that's not a good thing, lol! KBGM currently has rain so...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAIDEsNow Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 Hello all, Nice start for the season. Only about 5" here in Edinboro PA, but was at the cabin all day at the PA/NY border at the start of the Chautauqua Ridge. About 11" out there I would say. Was heaviest overnight, woke up to about 8", then another 3 or so thru the day and early tonight. Meanwhile, the clowns at ERI are at it again right off the bat regarding snowfall measurements. At the 5:00pm report, indicated 13.2" for the day: http://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=cle Not a freaking chance. I left the cabin about 6:30, drove up to and along the lake shore out to the from east Erie out to the airport. I would say there was maybe 5" otg? My friend said no more than 8" when it pretty much stopped by 2:00 pm and he cleared his driveway (about 3/4 of a mile from the airport). With settling/compacting, the 5 or 6 on the ground seems right. So once again, the airport is off by a staggering 38% or so. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 Another poster, awesome, welcome fellow snow lover. Welcome to the thread! Still workin on an 1', lol, but its trying its hardest. Still a bit warm at 35F so whatever falls melts on contact pretty much so your well ahead of the game! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 The eastern movement led by the NAM.. Nws Portland Last nights model runs trended more towards a coastal track and this is further supported by the 12 UTC NAM. The 00 UTC GFS ensemble and the 12 UTC NAM are very similar moving the low over Cape Cod and then along the Maine Coast. The 12 UTC GFS has continued its trend toward the coastal track...however the 12 UTC ECMWF remains the furthest west with a track across interior New England. The ECMWF track is not climatologically favored but can`t be discounted either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 11, 2018 Author Share Posted November 11, 2018 26 minutes ago, MAIDEsNow said: Hello all, Nice start for the season. Only about 5" here in Edinboro PA, but was at the cabin all day at the PA/NY border at the start of the Chautauqua Ridge. About 11" out there I would say. Was heaviest overnight, woke up to about 8", then another 3 or so thru the day and early tonight. Meanwhile, the clowns at ERI are at it again right off the bat regarding snowfall measurements. At the 5:00pm report, indicated 13.2" for the day: http://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=cle Not a freaking chance. I left the cabin about 6:30, drove up to and along the lake shore out to the from east Erie out to the airport. I would say there was maybe 5" otg? My friend said no more than 8" when it pretty much stopped by 2:00 pm and he cleared his driveway (about 3/4 of a mile from the airport). With settling/compacting, the 5 or 6 on the ground seems right. So once again, the airport is off by a staggering 38% or so. Keep the posts/pics coming! Love hearing from those on the ridge. Yeah, no chance that they got 13.2" down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 Oh man that's close but I'm gonna check some skew t's so I'll post some. You know what, there's really no need cause it looks like the thing went poof before my eyes, lol, or it's no where near what it was yesterday nevermind the day before, lol. I guess we'll have to wait till tomorrow's runs to see perhaps if things change cause if the GFS is right, we rain at lower elevations, but I don't know about the Tug. It turned into a puny thing unable to throw much moisture to it's NW, so IDK, but perhaps the Euro scores a coup. We'll see but the Euro is definitely West so...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 It’s definitely not looking like a big deal. The NAM has a swath of snow well to the NW (think SW Ontario) and a dry slot over WNY followed by some mixing issues over CNY. An anemic looking mess. Doesnt dig and really scoots along. Looking more like a 2-4” mess as opposed to the 6-10” we were looking at yesterday. All that said, it still has potential. I’m not done tracking this one. Could get a boost from the lakes if it’s cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 All models are allowed a few off runs but man, for the last 5 days the GFS has been extremely consistent and a couple days before its lose's it, but it may just be the GFS being the GFS and losing it a few days out, so we'll see tomorrow. Been tracking this for 5 days, would never stop tracking till go time, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 Its falling steadily now with some heavy heavy stuff starting to form to my NW. A nice WNW flow currently with a multi-lake connection with both Georgian Bay and Huron seeding this band and you can see when the connection is made as it just went boom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 Based of 10pm spotter reporting around Erie. I guess it could fall in line but not usual to see an early season large band event drop the most snow at the lowest elevation along the shoreline with the warming lake nearby... . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 Lake effect after this mon/tue system may be short lived as model are showing another storm moving up the east coast thurs/fri.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 Left behind energy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 So, predictably, NWS calls for 3-6" here overnight into Sunday afternoon. Not sure what they are thinking as we have a) warm ground b) sfc temps >32, c) SN- that melts fast and, d) no snowfall most of the time. Unreal. Tuesday looks like a slightly snowier version of Friday. A wet inch or so for most of us. Hills will have actual accumulation. Its early. Let's try again in December or January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 Picked up a little less than 2” during the day, unfortunately a ton of graupel..Snow just starting to pick up again as new bands form.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 Then 3 days later lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 **** ton of rain. why isn't it December, lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 I wouldn't say a ton of rain lol Max temps at kfzy 33, with temps in the upper 20's to start..850s stay south for the most part.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 10 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Shear, I seriously doubt it, but Im curious who forecasted it? Show me where, link, cause I didn't read that, but it doesn't really matter, like I already said, its the 10th of Nov and I can wait! It was mentioned in the AFD yesterday, and you could see wind barbs misaligned on yesterday’s skew t’s https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BUF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=10&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 First measurable snow of the season here overnight. Not much, about a half an inch on cars, roofs and grassy surfaces but it’s a reminder of what’s to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 A little west and we have the track from 93? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 kbuf Thermal profiles continue to suggest that this precipitation will again fall as a mix of rain and snow, with rain at the onset...and again Tuesday with some daytime warming. Snow with this low could amount to several inches, but the rather fast forward speed of the low combined with deeper moisture just to our east should limit the overall snow. It will not be until after this surface low advances to our north, across New England that the deeper colder air flows over the Great Lakes with p-type becoming all snow. Under cold air advection Tuesday night and into Wednesday a northwest flow will drive lake effect snow bands across the western So. Tier, and areas downwind of Lake Ontario...along the southern Lake shoreline and Finger Lakes region. There is still some uncertainty to the upstream lake connection potential, but it would stand a fair chance that at some point both Lake Huron and Georgian Bay could add additional moisture such that moderate to heavy bands of lake effect snow become likely. The lake effect snow should peak late Tuesday night and into Wednesday. Will continue to mention both the synoptic snow Monday night/Tuesday...and the Lake Effect Snow Tuesday night and Wednesday in the HWO...with likely lake effect snow totaling more than synoptic snows The models have come to a different solution for Thursday night, this a shortwave deep across the South and within a long wave trough over the eastern US developing a surface low again to the lee of the Appalachians. If this solution pans out, the storm system will again bring synoptic snow and a little rain to the area Thursday night through Friday. Will have chance pops for this until better model continuity develops. Behind this storm system, northwest flow will again develop setting the stage for again lake effect snow down wind of the Eastern Great Lakes Saturday. Looking further ahead (just outside of this forecast period)... colder air in the wake of the aforementioned system will continue to build across our region and should nearly guarantee below normal temperatures for both Sunday and Monday with lake effect snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 Tuesday’s storm is now so anemic that it is completely being disregarded and folks are already moving on to the next (unimpressive) threat. It was fun while it lasted. Who knows, maybe Ontario can throw us a little love on the backside. NW flow for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 7 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Tuesday’s storm is now so anemic that it is completely being disregarded and folks are already moving on to the next (unimpressive) threat. It was fun while it lasted. Who knows, maybe Ontario can throw us a little love on the backside. NW flow for a few hours. Many areas of Central NY look to get a few inches of snow in the Tuesday event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 Fv3 more like the euro.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 11, 2018 Author Share Posted November 11, 2018 Snowing pretty decent right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 18z NAM coming in a tad more interesting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now