wolfie09 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Last year SWVA was seeing flurries in southern Redfield while carol was seeing feet lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 To me this is a pretty good representation of the country snowfall, give or take.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 34 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: To me this is a pretty good representation of the country snowfall, give or take.. Also a great depiction of snowfall in Monroe County. From over 100” in the North to just under 60” near Henrietta. Thats close to 2x. Not quite the drastic difference seen in Erie though.Wow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Light snow will break out across the Southern Tier region after about 02z, with the precipitation spreading northeast and filling back in to the west during the course of the night. The most widespread pcpn should be experienced between about 08Z and 13z. While the bulk of the pcpn tonight should be in the form of snow, there could be some rain mixing in, especially for sites north of the NYS Thruway between BUF and SYR. Its worth noting that guidance is `colder` than previous model runs...and point soundings suggest a fair amount of evaporational cooling at the onset...both pointing towards more snow and less rain. Snowfall amounts tonight will range from a coating to less than an inch across the bulk of the lake plains...to 2 to 3 inches across the higher terrain of the Srn Tier and also for the Tug Hill. Have expanded the winter weather advisory for Lewis County to also include Wyoming, Cattaraugus, and Allegany counties...as 24 amounts could reach as high 5 inches and also because it is still relatively early in the season. As we progress through the afternoon...H85 temps over the lakes will tumble to -12c. Northwest flow will direct some initial lake effect snow showers into the western Southern Tier off Lake Erie, and southeast of Lake Ontario. Mesoscale model guidance such as the NMM, ARW, and Canadian GEM suggest a multitude of squally snow showers during the afternoon across much of the area from a combination of some lake effect bands from Lake Huron and our local lakes, steep low level lapse rates, and large scale forcing from the incoming mid level trough. These brief bursts of snow showers may bring low visibility and fresh coatings of slushy snow to many areas during the afternoon. Surface temperatures will also begin to fall during the afternoon, affording these snow showers a better opportunity of sticking after 2-3PM. Off Lake Erie...the northwest flow will produce multibanded lake effect snows downwind of the lake with accumulations of a few inches before the drier air starts building in with diminishing activity Wednesday morning. Off Lake Ontario...the longer fetch combined with upstream connection will produce a moderate to heavier snowfall likely targeting Wayne, Northern Cayuga and Oswego counties. Will continue to highlight the potential for heavier snowfall -- half a foot or so over a 24 hour period -- in the HWO with headlines still not out of the question. As drier air builds in during the day Wednesday will look for diminishing snows through the afternoon and evening hours...with lingering snow showers into the early overnight hours of Wednesday night While Thursday will start off dry across our region as lingering surface-based ridging begrudgingly slides eastward and off the New England coast...the fair weather will once again give way to deteriorating conditions Thursday afternoon and especially Thursday night as a another complex area of low pressure pushes northeastward from the Southeastern states...and eventually evolves into yet another deepening coastal low along the Mid-Atlantic coastline by Friday morning. Plentiful moisture and lift attendant to this system will spread increasing chances of precipitation into the area from the south Thursday afternoon...with fairly widespread precipitation then following for Thursday night...before diminishing from west to east on Friday as the low departs into the Canadian Maritimes. Thermal profiles continue to suggest that the atmospheric column should be cold enough to allow for mainly snow with this event... though marginal boundary layer temperatures will probably allow some rain to mix in at the onset Thursday/Thursday evening and again on Friday as the precip lightens and winds down. Otherwise...temperatures through the latter half of the short term period will continue to average solidly below normal...with lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s Thursday night sandwiched in between highs ranging through the 30s Thursday...and in the upper 30s to lower 40s on Friday. Digging a little more into the forecast details...a general west to west-northwesterly flow will be in place across our region through Friday night and early Saturday...before perhaps turning a little more west-southwesterly to southwesterly on Saturday in advance of an approaching surface trough. Meanwhile...850 mb temps should drop off to the -3C to -6C range Friday night...before remaining in this general range or perhaps warming a little on Saturday out ahead of the aforementioned trough. While certainly cold enough for a lake response...such temps aloft will likely not be cold enough to support all snow...with boundary layer temperatures the main determining factor for precipitation type. With this in mind would expect more of a mix of rain and snow Friday evening and again on Saturday when boundary layer temps will be warmer...with snow more predominant during the second half of Friday night. Meanwhile...precipitation should be much more widely scattered outside of the main lake effect areas... with mainly dry weather prevailing the majority of the time. As for temps...we can expect lows in the lower to mid 30s Friday night...followed by highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 The Buffalo office has been experimenting with snow warning polygons for the past two years. Similar to thunderstorm and tornado warnings. They do display them on one of their pages but I think they are hung up on how to relay the more specific warning to the public. Just think when they issue a thunderstorm warning it’s still issued and communicated county wide not just town by town. And even if it was town by town here in Buffalo when we have those sharp northern gradients you can have warning snowfall on the south side of some towns and a dusting on the north side. I really don’t think they can properly fine tooth the system any more than they already do just too many variables and too many unique situations. If you live in a snow prone zone the tug or the ridge you know when it’s going to snow and how it gets you don’t need a warning product too tell you that. Here’s a link to the snow polygons by the way...https://www.weather.gov/media/buf/2016ExperimentalBUFLESPolygonPDD.pdf. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 I have been trying to post pictures from my phone, but every image seems to be too many bytes. Don't know how to change that...If your using an iPhone try an app called Tapatalk. It’s a message board app and supports this forum so you can post right to it. Lot more phone friendly that the regular webpage. Plus for whatever reason when you use the app there appears to be no size limit on posting pictures. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: If your using an iPhone try an app called Tapatalk. It’s a message board app and supports this forum so you can post right to it. Lot more phone friendly that the regular webpage. Plus for whatever reason when you use the app there appears to be no size limit on posting pictures. . I use Tatatalk and I have an 1.95mb upload limit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 my bad, II don't on my chromebook but I do use it on mobile and I've never tried to ul any pics yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: To me this is a pretty good representation of the country snowfall, give or take.. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 34 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: I use Tatatalk and I have an 1.95mb upload limit. Try Imgur works great 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Check out this Skew T for MBY, lol, @10PM tomorrow evening, basically So Oswego Cty and its Awesome looking ro say the least! 6hrs later even better with copious amounts of RH and Omega has gone up as well and snow growth region bisects both the omega and RH values so I'd expect some serious snow growth with in this single band tomorrow night. This has the potential to be something substantial to say the least! Definite headlines will be needed but We'll see. 6hrs later, still no change in wind, RH values and the Omega values so basically this is forecasted to stay stationary for close to 18hrs, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Check out this Skew T for MBY, lol, @10PM tomorrow evening, basically So Oswego Cty and its Awesome looking ro say the least! 6hrs later even better with copious amounts of RH and Omega has gone up as well and snow growth region bisects both the omega and RH values so I'd expect some serious snow growth with in this single band tomorrow night. This has the potential to be something substantial to say the least! Definite headlines will be needed but We'll see. 6hrs later, still no change in wind, RH values and the Omega values so basically this is forecasted to stay stationary for close to 18hrs, lol! Yeah, it looks great. Might see someone get a foot if it stays stationary for a few hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 If your in Phoenix, Fulton, Palermo, Pennellville, Central Square, Brewerton, Clay, Cicero, B-Ville, Liverpool and even the City, this may very well, or has the potential to put down our first measurable snowfall of the season, and it could be a pretty good amount as well so get ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah, it looks great. Might see someone get a foot if it stays stationary for a few hours. Agreed, easily too if all comes together right, but to me this is the first real threat for our area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Not even looking at tonight and tomorrows slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 Just now, CNY-WXFREAK said: Agreed, easily too if all comes together right, but to me this is the first real threat for our area! Did you see the threat on Friday. It's so close to a triple phaser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Nam at the ends of its range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Yeah, but I'm thinking that we ned to get through these first couple events before tackling an even bigger headache. If this band were expecting here tomorrow actually comes to fruition and drops whatever it drops, that can change the outcome of Thurs-Fridays event from a mix to primarilly snow if there's enough snowfall left OTG, so we'll see, but of course I've seen it and I've been holding back on posting because of all this other great stuff we're tracking. What a great early season of tracking we're being gifted with. Now longer range is looking colder and stormier as well, so things are def looking up. Wire to Wire yr guys, book it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 The one on Friday has more potential as it brings in its own cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 I seriously despise the GooFuS! It has to be the worst model in existence and all these upgrades have done nothing to improve its performance , at least to these eyes anyway. Seriously annoying when its consistent with a system to the very end and just vanishes into thin air? If that energy that got stuck in the SW, that comes out for Thurs-Fri event, came out all at once, we'd be looking at a totally different situation/solution but that didn't happen of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 It dynamically cools the column directly underneath the ULL which is quite common during the cold season. Friday we snow and snow only then another round of WNW LES, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: It dynamically cools the column directly underneath the ULL which is quite common during the cold season. Friday we snow and snow only then another round of WNW LES, lol! Yeah this pattern sucks for Buffalo but good for your area. Problem is Erie is cooling fast, already 2 degs below normal. Not looking good for my above normal snowfall call. Albeit early if no good LES events there is no way we go above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 That storm on Friday has really high ice potential too. Look at that massive high to its north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: That storm on Friday has really high ice potential too. Look at that massive high to its north. Agreed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 This is why i hated living in fulton lol Always a close call, but i guess that is lake effect overall.. This is more NW then WNW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: This is why i hated living in fulton lol Always a close call, but i guess that is lake effect overall.. This is more NW then WNW You shouldn't have hated living in Fulton, you get more snow than 99.9% of cities in the US. But I see what you mean, it's nearly impossible to predict NW events and the strongest events are those on a westerly flow which usually result in higher rates and more "epic" events which is what I'm all about. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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