Upstate/Eastern New York

[CNY-LES FREAK]

Our first event, of the analog yr I'm watching, 02-03' happened on the 1st and second of November, https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2002-2003&event=A Doesnt look like that's gonna happen this yr, in fact, I dont even see our first serious potential yet, but as November wears on, I'd start to seriously look for an event towards the middle of the month but that's just a guess and a wishcast, lol.

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[BuffaloWeather]

I pretty much agree with all of this. Interesting to see almost all weak/mod ninos have above average December’s and below average February’s. It’s intereting to me because weak El Niño’s are Buffalos best snowfall years yet the lake is usually frozen by February. Pretty cool statistic. 

 

http://raleighwxmodels.com/awhuffma/Winter/Winter2018-19Forecast.pdf

[BuffaloWeather]

Saw a post on the GL forum about your top 5 snowstorms. Anyone want to list theirs?

#1 would be Nov 17-19, 2014:

88.5" of snow in 3 1/2 days. Total snow depth of 54" by the end of the storm. Constant thunder and lighting, snowfall rates of 6-8" per hour in the heaviest portion of the band. I got a full week off of work paid! 

https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2014-2015&event=B

https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2014-2015&event=C

#2 Dec. 24-29 2001:

82" of snow fell in 5 days. Total snow depth was 45" at the end of the storm. A consistent 1-2' of snow each day for 5 days. 

https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2001-2002&event=B

#3 Oct, 12-13 2006:

Over 24" of snow fell in 1 day in the beginning of October. An unprecedented storm. 90% of the leaves were still on the trees. The city of buffalo and surrounding suburbs lost 70% of total trees to this storm and I was without power for over 2 weeks. We went for a walk that night with the family and couldn't believe what was happening. Transformers and trees blowing up all over, sirens going off all night, my mom almost got hit with a large tree branch. That was the craziest night of my life in regards to the weather. I remember the entire family sleeping next to the fireplace for weeks while we waited for power to be restored.  

https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2006-2007&event=A

#4 Dec. 9-12 1995:

Over 38" of snow fell in 24 hours. This is the storm as a 8 year old that got me so into weather. I remember jumping off the 2nd balcony into a giant snowbank with my family. I owe this storm as the reason I love the weather so much.

https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=1995-1996&event=G

#5  Tie between Nov 20th 2000 and Dec 1-3 2010

Nov 20th, 2000- 25" of snow fell in about 6 hours in the city of Buffalo out to cheektowaga. I remember being in school and they did an early dismissal. My mom came and picked me up early from school which was smart because snowfall rates of 3-4" an hour hit as we were leaving. Most kids got stuck at school overnight. 

https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2000-2001&event=C

Dec 1-3 2010- I lived in Orchard Park at the time where we received 30-35" of snow in 24 hours. Constant thunder and lighting accompanied the snow. 

https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2010-2011&event=B

There are some others throughout Buffalos history that would have made the list, but wasn't born yet. 2 70" storms, one in the 40s and another in the 50s. The infamous 1977 storm would top almost any Buffalo natives list and then the blizzard of 1985. 

[DeltaT13]

Nice list of storms BW.  Aside from the 12/1/10 storm, I am very familiar with all of those storms.   All great events.  I was at least in the Buffalo area back in those days.   The December 9-12,  1995 was also very significant in solidifying my interest in meteorology.  By chance I was at my Grandmas house in West Seneca for that storm., it felt like we were being buried alive!.

[BuffaloWeather]

51 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Nice list of storms BW.  Aside from the 12/1/10 storm, I am very familiar with all of those storms.   All great events.  I was at least in the Buffalo area back in those days.   The December 9-12,  1995 was also very significant in solidifying my interest in meteorology.  By chance I was at my Grandmas house in West Seneca for that storm., it felt like we were being buried alive!.

Yeah I was living in the city for the 1995 storm, Cheektowaga for the 2000, 2001, and 2006 storm, OP for the 2010 and Hamburg for the 2014 event. 

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

Pretty much the same list for me... little different order...
1. Oct 2006. The destruction was just so crazy. Never forgot that sound of the trees breaking.
2. Nov 2014. First time I can ever remember actually being snowed in and you really couldn’t leave your house for 2-3 days.
3. Dec 2001. Just so much snow that week!
4. Dec 2010. 40” in 24 hours here in SB just crazy. My favorite stat on this one was the sharp northern edge of the snow. Buffalo airport only had 2” at one end of a runway while the other end have over a foot!
5. Dec 21. 2008. Throwing a curveball here. Strong multi band storm with very high winds and near blizzard conditions. 12-18” widespread across Erie County with 3’ drifts. Reason this storm is on my list it’s the only time I’ve ever been stranded while diving. Was trying to take the 219 home to West Seneca from Springville that night. Star filled skies leaving Springville to a wall at the Rice Road exit. Took me over 2 1/2 hours to make it from there down the hill and to the Boston State exit. Was a scary drive you couldn’t see anything!
https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2008-2009&event=H



.

[CNY-WXFREAK]

I have noticed one thing that's quite beneficial or at least it seems this way, and that's the current/mean storm track that's been affecting the area with copious amounts of rain the last couple weeks and it doesn't look like it lets up anytime soon or at least according to most model guidance.  In fact, it looks like our best chances at an area wide. first accumulating snow, but its so far out that it can change and probably will several times but its been hinting at this time frame for quite a while now. so who knows, but from about the 10th through the 17th, that time frame looks ripe for an event whether it's LES or Synoptic remains to be seen.

[CNY-WXFREAK]

WNY is taking a pounding with rain.  Nothing but yellows and dark greens to be had all across the area. What a waste of liquid, lol!

[BuffaloWeather]

That's a lot of cold next weekend. Beyond that Canada looks like mid winter. 

[DeltaT13]

That Wednesday (11/7) storm that has been lurking around on the models has the potential for some damaging winds.  A really nice storm track and deepening quickly.  Would love to see that start locking in.  

[BuffaloWeather]

22 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

Nice list of storms BW.  Aside from the 12/1/10 storm, I am very familiar with all of those storms.   All great events.  I was at least in the Buffalo area back in those days.   The December 9-12,  1995 was also very significant in solidifying my interest in meteorology.  By chance I was at my Grandmas house in West Seneca for that storm., it felt like we were being buried alive!.

How does last years Lake effect storm during the Bills game rank? That was a once in a lifetime event right there. Totals were high too, some 30". 

[DeltaT13]

21 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

How does last years Lake effect storm during the Bills game rank? That was a once in a lifetime event right there. Totals were high too, some 30". 

It was absolutely a once in a lifetime event and one I had envisioned could happen for decades; yet I wasnt sure I'd ever be alive to see it let alone be right in it, so yeah, that was truly epic!  I was only there for about 10 inches of it, but it fell in about 4 hours during the middle of a game so that made it extremely unique.  In terms of  awesomeness it ranks very high, in terms of raw snowfall not as crazy at least while I was there

[Thinksnow18]

One thing is certain we will see our first 30 degree temps area wide next weekend and into early next week. This has the making of a possible event IF the right LP comes into play during that timeframe. 

[BuffaloWeather]

This rain is depressing. It seems like its been raining for a straight week. The absolute worse is cold rain. I rather it be 70 and sunny. 

[TugHillMatt]

40 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

This rain is depressing. It seems like its been raining for a straight week. The absolute worse is cold rain. I rather it be 70 and sunny. 

It's been cloudy and rainy here on the Tug almost every day since the beginning of September. My wife bought some daylight bulbs for our lamps in the house. Definitely a cloudy place! When we go into Syracuse or Pulaski the sun will be shining and then when we turn around and come back you can see the clouds forming and sitting over the Tug.

[CNY-LES FREAK]

It's been cloudy and rainy here on the Tug almost every day since the beginning of September. My wife bought some daylight bulbs for our lamps in the house. Definitely a cloudy place! When we go into Syracuse or Pulaski the sun will be shining and then when we turn around and come back you can see the clouds forming and sitting over the Tug.

Yeah the sun is pretty much nonexistent up there from Oct-April then they start to break up, lol. Any kind of W-SW-WSW and even NW winds will create a blanket of clouds over the area. I would love it, but to each his own. I'm sure a lot of ppl suffer from SAD ( (seasonal affect disorder) up there, which sucks, but its real.

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[BuffaloWeather]

First event of the year later next week!

The second weather regime will then settle in behind the storm
system Wednesday and particularly Thursday...as a deep cyclonic flow
of increasingly chilly air will establish well defined plumes of
lake effect precipitation east of both Lakes Erie and Ontario. As of
the writing of this discussion...temperatures should be just high
enough to favor mainly liquid...but its not out of the question that
some measurable snow could fall in the higher terrain of the
Southern Tier (ie Chautauqua ridge) and on the Tug Hill Plateau.

[BuffaloWeather]

10 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

It's been cloudy and rainy here on the Tug almost every day since the beginning of September. My wife bought some daylight bulbs for our lamps in the house. Definitely a cloudy place! When we go into Syracuse or Pulaski the sun will be shining and then when we turn around and come back you can see the clouds forming and sitting over the Tug.

Sunday looks to be sunny and mid 50s, really looking forward to it. Going to take the dog for a walk in the park. I agree with the SAD though, I get it in March/April every year. I usually plan my Florida trip in early April because of it. 

[wolfie09]

Clouds come with the territory if u live near the Great Lakes, all 5 ny state cities are in the top 25, no wonder no one lives in this state lol

[WNash]

30 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Clouds come with the territory if u live near the Great Lakes, all 5 ny state cities are in the top 25, no wonder no one lives in this state lol

? NY is the fourth most populated state, and the population is increasing while many states are shrinking

[wolfie09]

Latest GFS

[wolfie09]

Ny is skewed because of the biggest city in the country lol

Ill look it up but i am pretty sure only NJ has more residents move out per year..

[WNash]

1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

Ny is skewed because of the biggest city in the country lol

Ill look it up but i am pretty sure only NJ has more residents move out per year..

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_population_growth_rate

[wolfie09]

ALBANY, N.Y. (AP) -- Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo blamed upstate weather for prompting New Yorkers flee to other states.

Cuomo told reporters Tuesday that while job losses and high taxes once drove people to leave New York, his administration has ended that trend and improved the local economic situation.

He says many of the New Yorkers leaving the state now are doing so for personal reasons or decisions that he called "climate based."

 

 

While New York continues to attract immigrants from other countries, a study last year found that it led the nation in net migration to other states.

[wolfie09]

How much of that is ny city compared to ny state?

[BuffaloWeather]

Erie county is actually growing the last few years. I've definitely noticed more people on the thruways. It seems like a big city now during rush hour. 

From 919,040 in 2010 to 925,528 in 2017. 

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/eriecountynewyork

[BuffaloWeather]

3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

ALBANY, N.Y. (AP) -- Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo blamed upstate weather for prompting New Yorkers flee to other states.

Cuomo told reporters Tuesday that while job losses and high taxes once drove people to leave New York, his administration has ended that trend and improved the local economic situation.

He says many of the New Yorkers leaving the state now are doing so for personal reasons or decisions that he called "climate based."

 

 

While New York continues to attract immigrants from other countries, a study last year found that it led the nation in net migration to other states.

It can't be the 2nd highest taxed state in the country that makes people move. Honestly that would be the only reason I would move. There are better/higher paying jobs in other states, lower taxes, and better weather. It's hard to compete against all 3. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Just as an example the taxes on the house we just got approved for are $4350 for a $170k home. The average housing price in Hamburg is $180-220K. This is outside the village, if you're in the village of Hamburg there is an additional village tax of $1-2K a year. 

My uncle and aunt live north of Fort Lauderdale on the water. Their house is worth around $600-700K. They pay $2500 a year in total taxes. The equivalent here in Buffalo would be $25-35k in taxes a year. 

[wolfie09]

Depends where u live. i pay 4000 a year on a total of 4100 sq foot (including finished basemet/attick) home with 3.5 acres. my in-laws pay 9000 a year in nj to get not even half that lol I moved to ny state because of the property taxes haha

Pay in NY state is actually not bad imo, where else in the NE do fast food workers get 12-13 an hr lol 

[BuffaloWeather]

16 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Depends where u live. i pay 4000 a year on a total of 4100 sq foot (including finished basemet/attick) home with 3.5 acres. my in-laws pay 9000 a year in nj to get not even half that lol I moved to ny state because of the property taxes haha

Pay in NY state is actually not bad imo, where else in the NE do fast food workers get 12-13 an hr lol 

Yeah, but you have to live at least 30-60 minutes away from a bigger city to get cheap taxes. If I moved out to Boston/Colden my taxes would get cut in half, but I wouldn't want to drive 30-45 minutes to work each day. 4100 Sq foot house (if that is whats the taxable SQ is) would be $10-15K taxes in Hamburg.

Taxes in the City of Buffalo are extremely cheap. My grandma pays like $300-400 a year for taxes on the west side. I guess it depends a lot on location, value of home, SQ, etc...