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Tyler Penland

2018/2019 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread

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Just now, AsheCounty48 said:

12k NAM with 2 ft for Boone still at a 10:1 ratio....given ratios during the height will be higher than that. *As I mentioned earlier, still discounting the 12z Nam slightly altogether*

I saw that. Starting to get a little worried about the warm nose. I think we stay all snow on the 12z euro but it's close 

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Just now, NC_WX10 said:

I saw that. Starting to get a little worried about the warm nose. I think we stay all snow on the 12z euro but it's close 

Unless another drastic change happens, I think we will be fine, Euro came close, but I don't believe it can really hit us this far away much worse than that. Fingers crossed,

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35 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Thought about heading up to my grandparents house at the foot of gateway. Thinking he may get raked up there. Plus he has wood stove! 

Not far from me at all. Definitely snowing along the higher peaks! 

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Filtered sunshine here and just went above freezing for the first time in 7 days. Not a flake. Canceled a lot of plans for nothing so we're going to try to have a little treat. Made reservations for 8:30 at RuthChris in Biltmore with some friends to salvage the weekend. Nothing like a big medium-rare t-bone to forget about it! :raining:Congrats to those that are seeing snow!

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1 minute ago, SnoJoe said:

Filtered sunshine here and just went above freezing for the first time in 7 days. Not a flake. Canceled a lot of plans for nothing so we're going to try to have a little treat. Made reservations for 8:30 at RuthChris in Biltmore with some friends to salvage the weekend. Nothing like a big medium-rare t-bone to forget about it! :raining:Congrats to those that are seeing snow!

Lol I'm headed to the biltmore estates currently. 

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I’m reducing snowfall totals for Buncombe and Henderson counties based on an analysis of all new data. Boone is all snow, just lower QPF.  There will be a layer of warm air aloft that makes it to us overnight. So, while surface temperatures will be in the mid 20s, it will be above freezing at 10,000 feet.  So...

Asheville: 4-8" of snow and 1-2" of sleet, may end as freezing rain
Hend/Zirconia: 3-7" of snow and 2-4" of sleet, some minor glazing possible

Now, if the warm nose fails to materialize (possible, but seems like it will), then the forecast is:

AVL: 10-15"
HEND: 15-20"

So you see what a huge deal this layer of warm air is aloft.  I will post an update / revision later if conditions change.

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I’m reducing snowfall totals for Buncombe and Henderson counties based on an analysis of all new data. Boone is all snow, just lower QPF.  There will be a layer of warm air aloft that makes it to us overnight. So, while surface temperatures will be in the mid 20s, it will be above freezing at 10,000 feet.  So...
Asheville: 4-8" of snow and 1-2" of sleet, may end as freezing rain
Hend/Zirconia: 3-7" of snow and 2-4" of sleet, some minor glazing possible
Now, if the warm nose fails to materialize (possible, but seems like it will), then the forecast is:
AVL: 10-15"
HEND: 15-20"
So you see what a huge deal this layer of warm air is aloft.  I will post an update / revision later if conditions change.

Sorry for imby question, but in your opinion how do you feel about Lenoir/Wilkesboro area?


.

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Just now, HKY1894 said:


Sorry for imby question, but in your opinion how do you feel about Lenoir/Wilkesboro area?


.

Should be far enough north to escape the warm nose.  10-14" seems like a good forecast. 

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Currently 29 degrees at the 6000 feet level in Balsams per the Mt. Lyn Lowry station.  Looks like almost everywhere else is still above freezing.  Balsams would absolutely be getting nailed later today but what about that warm nose?  There is going to orographics as result of the gale force winds out of the East/NE later suggesting areas just SW of there may end up with little snow due to down sloping warming, and cut off from any of the CAD. 

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1249 PM EST Sat Dec 8 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
With cold Canadian high pressure to our north and low pressure
passing to our south, we are having a major winter storm.  The
low pressure moves off the Carolina coast Sunday evening taking
most of the wintry weather with it.  The last of the light
precipitation finally ends Monday night when the upper trough
passes. Cool high pressure will be in control Tuesday and Wednesday,
then the next storm system arrives at the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1245 PM: No additional changes have been made to the current
hazard suite pending full inspection of the 12Z model data. The
morning adjustments were made in light of slightly warmer 850 mb
temperatures on the 12Z FFC raob than apparent in the numerical
models, and slightly colder Sunday AM surface temperatures
penetrating farther south in the cold wedge in the incoming model
solutions. These adjustments gave slightly more confidence to
upgrading the northern portion of the lingering Winter Storm Watch
to a Warning, and posting a Winter Weather Advisory for the southern
piedmont where light icing is looking a bit more likely early Sunday.

Otherwise, precip rates will steadily increase this afternoon into
the evening as low-to-mid level frontogenetical forcing intensifies,
and forcing deepens with the approach of a potent short wave trough
from the lower MS and TN Valleys. Meanwhile, surface ridge
associated with expansive 1035+ mb Arctic high pressure spilling
east of the central Appalachians will continue to nose down the
Eastern Seaboard, with a strengthening gradient between the surface
high and Gulf Coast cyclone and diabatic effects from falling
precipitation resulting in an intensifying cold air damming regime,
which is forecast to become quite strong from late afternoon into
this evening.

Advection of sub-freezing wet bulb surface air will therefore
increase substantially into our forecast area during this time,
which will allow for a steady transition from rain to snow from
northeast to southwest across the Piedmont/foothills this evening
through the overnight. This transition is expected to occur along
the I-40 corridor early this evening, pushing as far south as the
I-85 corridor between midnight and daybreak. It is during this time
that the operational model guidance diverges with respect to their
thermal fields, as the NAM is insistent in pushing a substantial
warm nose into the Piedmont, suggesting a transition to sleet and
rain/freezing rain along and south/east of the I-85 corridor, while
the GFS paints mostly a rain/snow scenario for the entire area, with
perhaps some sleet mixing in across the Piedmont. The NAM often
tends to do a fairly decent job in handling warm nose features
during coastal cyclone scenarios, while the other operational
guidance tends to under-do them. That being the case, the NAM
thermal fields were blended in heavily with other guidance to
produce tonight`s p-type forecast. The result is a swath of warning-
level ice accretion forecast along I-85 and locations within about a
county to the southeast, while sleet and FZRA mixing in with snow
substantially cut into forecast snowfall totals along and near I85.

 

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21 minutes ago, Silas Lang said:

All snow and coming down at a nice rate. Down to 35. 

Yep. I was worried we weren't going to see anything until late, if at all. Just need the heavier returns and we are in business, for a while anyway.

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6 minutes ago, ncjoaquin said:

Yep. I was worried we weren't going to see anything until late, if at all. Just need the heavier returns and we are in business, for a while anyway.

I’m still waiting!  All rain all day here in Candler.

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17 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

I’m still waiting!  All rain all day here in Candler.

It is working your way. We went to Red Lobster and the rain just changed to snow gradually as I worked my way back to West Asheville. Not breaking any records yet for sure!  But, it is a ray of hope.

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