NC_WX10 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, AsheCounty48 said: 12k NAM with 2 ft for Boone still at a 10:1 ratio....given ratios during the height will be higher than that. *As I mentioned earlier, still discounting the 12z Nam slightly altogether* I saw that. Starting to get a little worried about the warm nose. I think we stay all snow on the 12z euro but it's close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, NC_WX10 said: I saw that. Starting to get a little worried about the warm nose. I think we stay all snow on the 12z euro but it's close Unless another drastic change happens, I think we will be fine, Euro came close, but I don't believe it can really hit us this far away much worse than that. Fingers crossed, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 35 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Thought about heading up to my grandparents house at the foot of gateway. Thinking he may get raked up there. Plus he has wood stove! Not far from me at all. Definitely snowing along the higher peaks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Still very steady light snow here, almost all cover on the grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Temps are falling here in AVL looking at the wundermap. Especially at places receiving precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Filtered sunshine here and just went above freezing for the first time in 7 days. Not a flake. Canceled a lot of plans for nothing so we're going to try to have a little treat. Made reservations for 8:30 at RuthChris in Biltmore with some friends to salvage the weekend. Nothing like a big medium-rare t-bone to forget about it! Congrats to those that are seeing snow! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 minute ago, SnoJoe said: Filtered sunshine here and just went above freezing for the first time in 7 days. Not a flake. Canceled a lot of plans for nothing so we're going to try to have a little treat. Made reservations for 8:30 at RuthChris in Biltmore with some friends to salvage the weekend. Nothing like a big medium-rare t-bone to forget about it! Congrats to those that are seeing snow! Lol I'm headed to the biltmore estates currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Dropped about 4 degrees with his current mod rain. Got some mixing at 39. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 I’m reducing snowfall totals for Buncombe and Henderson counties based on an analysis of all new data. Boone is all snow, just lower QPF. There will be a layer of warm air aloft that makes it to us overnight. So, while surface temperatures will be in the mid 20s, it will be above freezing at 10,000 feet. So... Asheville: 4-8" of snow and 1-2" of sleet, may end as freezing rain Hend/Zirconia: 3-7" of snow and 2-4" of sleet, some minor glazing possible Now, if the warm nose fails to materialize (possible, but seems like it will), then the forecast is: AVL: 10-15" HEND: 15-20" So you see what a huge deal this layer of warm air is aloft. I will post an update / revision later if conditions change. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 I’m reducing snowfall totals for Buncombe and Henderson counties based on an analysis of all new data. Boone is all snow, just lower QPF. There will be a layer of warm air aloft that makes it to us overnight. So, while surface temperatures will be in the mid 20s, it will be above freezing at 10,000 feet. So... Asheville: 4-8" of snow and 1-2" of sleet, may end as freezing rain Hend/Zirconia: 3-7" of snow and 2-4" of sleet, some minor glazing possible Now, if the warm nose fails to materialize (possible, but seems like it will), then the forecast is: AVL: 10-15" HEND: 15-20" So you see what a huge deal this layer of warm air is aloft. I will post an update / revision later if conditions change.Sorry for imby question, but in your opinion how do you feel about Lenoir/Wilkesboro area?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, HKY1894 said: Sorry for imby question, but in your opinion how do you feel about Lenoir/Wilkesboro area? . Should be far enough north to escape the warm nose. 10-14" seems like a good forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Currently 29 degrees at the 6000 feet level in Balsams per the Mt. Lyn Lowry station. Looks like almost everywhere else is still above freezing. Balsams would absolutely be getting nailed later today but what about that warm nose? There is going to orographics as result of the gale force winds out of the East/NE later suggesting areas just SW of there may end up with little snow due to down sloping warming, and cut off from any of the CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 here’s my nest cam link - right outside of Hendersonville at ~2350ft facing east towards Lake Lure/Chimney Rock: https://video.nest.com/live/3KqqDNY8eO Not sure if it will work well, first time sharing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 minute ago, BretWheatley said: here’s my nest cam link - right outside of Hendersonville at ~2350ft facing east towards Lake Lure/Chimney Rock: https://video.nest.com/live/3KqqDNY8eO Not sure if it will work well, first time sharing. Good view!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 minute ago, BretWheatley said: here’s my nest cam link - right outside of Hendersonville at ~2350ft facing east towards Lake Lure/Chimney Rock: https://video.nest.com/live/3KqqDNY8eO Not sure if it will work well, first time sharing. Cool 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 12 minutes ago, BretWheatley said: here’s my nest cam link - right outside of Hendersonville at ~2350ft facing east towards Lake Lure/Chimney Rock: https://video.nest.com/live/3KqqDNY8eO Not sure if it will work well, first time sharing. That will be a good one to watch. Thanks! Good snow at 2,350' 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1249 PM EST Sat Dec 8 2018 .SYNOPSIS... With cold Canadian high pressure to our north and low pressure passing to our south, we are having a major winter storm. The low pressure moves off the Carolina coast Sunday evening taking most of the wintry weather with it. The last of the light precipitation finally ends Monday night when the upper trough passes. Cool high pressure will be in control Tuesday and Wednesday, then the next storm system arrives at the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1245 PM: No additional changes have been made to the current hazard suite pending full inspection of the 12Z model data. The morning adjustments were made in light of slightly warmer 850 mb temperatures on the 12Z FFC raob than apparent in the numerical models, and slightly colder Sunday AM surface temperatures penetrating farther south in the cold wedge in the incoming model solutions. These adjustments gave slightly more confidence to upgrading the northern portion of the lingering Winter Storm Watch to a Warning, and posting a Winter Weather Advisory for the southern piedmont where light icing is looking a bit more likely early Sunday. Otherwise, precip rates will steadily increase this afternoon into the evening as low-to-mid level frontogenetical forcing intensifies, and forcing deepens with the approach of a potent short wave trough from the lower MS and TN Valleys. Meanwhile, surface ridge associated with expansive 1035+ mb Arctic high pressure spilling east of the central Appalachians will continue to nose down the Eastern Seaboard, with a strengthening gradient between the surface high and Gulf Coast cyclone and diabatic effects from falling precipitation resulting in an intensifying cold air damming regime, which is forecast to become quite strong from late afternoon into this evening. Advection of sub-freezing wet bulb surface air will therefore increase substantially into our forecast area during this time, which will allow for a steady transition from rain to snow from northeast to southwest across the Piedmont/foothills this evening through the overnight. This transition is expected to occur along the I-40 corridor early this evening, pushing as far south as the I-85 corridor between midnight and daybreak. It is during this time that the operational model guidance diverges with respect to their thermal fields, as the NAM is insistent in pushing a substantial warm nose into the Piedmont, suggesting a transition to sleet and rain/freezing rain along and south/east of the I-85 corridor, while the GFS paints mostly a rain/snow scenario for the entire area, with perhaps some sleet mixing in across the Piedmont. The NAM often tends to do a fairly decent job in handling warm nose features during coastal cyclone scenarios, while the other operational guidance tends to under-do them. That being the case, the NAM thermal fields were blended in heavily with other guidance to produce tonight`s p-type forecast. The result is a swath of warning- level ice accretion forecast along I-85 and locations within about a county to the southeast, while sleet and FZRA mixing in with snow substantially cut into forecast snowfall totals along and near I85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 925 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 All snow and coming down at a nice rate. Down to 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiQuiDBuD Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Currently in Cashiers, finally steady snow showers.Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 21 minutes ago, Silas Lang said: All snow and coming down at a nice rate. Down to 35. Yep. I was worried we weren't going to see anything until late, if at all. Just need the heavier returns and we are in business, for a while anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Well...... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Long range HRRR is a crush job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Long range HRRR is a crush job. Just saw that. It looks fantastic! . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Still hammering here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, BretWheatley said: Just saw that. It looks fantastic! . Honestly matches up perfectly with the RAP posted above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, ncjoaquin said: Well...... cheers! 2 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Long range HRRR is a crush job. beers! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 6 minutes ago, ncjoaquin said: Yep. I was worried we weren't going to see anything until late, if at all. Just need the heavier returns and we are in business, for a while anyway. I’m still waiting! All rain all day here in Candler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Long range HRRR is a crush job. Nope. I’m not in on that. No good reason to believe it when I’m all rain. Seems it’s p-type algorithm is off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 17 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said: I’m still waiting! All rain all day here in Candler. It is working your way. We went to Red Lobster and the rain just changed to snow gradually as I worked my way back to West Asheville. Not breaking any records yet for sure! But, it is a ray of hope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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