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Rtd208

E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2018 OBS Thread

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Redsky is basking in the delicious irony of this, been waiting for a good old fashioned November snowstorm since I guess the 80's if not counting the advisory level event in 95. Be watching this in a raincoat as it falls to my west in my old haunts  :(

 

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1 minute ago, RedSky said:

Winter of Yore is upon us

 

And ofcourse just saw our favorite weather women on nbc10. Said no snow will make it into philly maybe a quick mix well nw of philly

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1 minute ago, Stormman96 said:

And ofcourse just saw our favorite weather women on nbc10. Said no snow will make it into philly maybe a quick mix well nw of philly

She is annoying and puts a damper on any possible snow threat....

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1 minute ago, Stormman96 said:

And ofcourse just saw our favorite weather women on nbc10. Said no snow will make it into philly maybe a quick mix well nw of philly

Right,  also Weather World's top warminsta was on and said snow to rain in the northern part of the state :lol:.

 

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21 minutes ago, RedSky said:

I am not giving up since 95% of snowstorms the last decade went cold to the coast and shellacked Monmouth County. Nope.

 

I mean you are there for the snow, afterall!

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Wow Bernie Rayno is all over this threat. He says the initial WAA isn't the main story but rather the CCB and ULL swing through on Friday morning. If you want to watch his periscope, it is on his twitter. He circled SE PA up into Central and Northern NJ and just north of NYC as the bullseye for potentially 3-6" and locally 8". He basically said to never ever trust a closed ULL. 

Also, I'm sure you guys know that the 18z Para GFS snow map includes sleet. It would be nice to get 15" of snow in mid November but it's not happening lol.

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I know this is the NAM at range but again, I'm not sure how some folks are seeing this as a very snowy solution. Tucked low, no blocking hp North to cause a redevelopment or bump East, no HP to the North filtering in LLC. Outside of far N and W higher elevation areas this is just a teaser....something to track to get the rust off. As far as the ULL pulling through early Friday with a death band I suppose it's possible but forecasting this type of scenario at range is a real challenge. Hoping to maybe see a few flakes at the onset and maybe a few flakes Friday anyway. Not expecting any accumulation in my area. 

Eta: There will be the first accum snow of the season for some, just wanted to note that my disagreement in snow vs little to no snow is irt the i95 corridor and immediate burbs. Far n and w ftw

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_51.png

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35 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I know this is the NAM at range but again, I'm not sure how some folks are seeing this as a very snowy solution. Tucked low, no blocking hp North to cause a redevelopment or bump East, no HP to the North filtering in LLC. Outside of far N and W higher elevation areas this is just a teaser....something to track to get the rust off. As far as the ULL pulling through early Friday with a death band I suppose it's possible but forecasting this type of scenario at range is a real challenge. Hoping to maybe see a few flakes at the onset and maybe a few flakes Friday anyway. Not expecting any accumulation in my area. 

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_51.png

Yeah, I think the jackpot will be no more than a 1.5" slopfest in higher elevations (e.g. Huff's Church, Green Lane Outskirts, Hamburg, etc.) everyone else is going to work in a rain slicker and rubberboots. Mesoscale could be over amping too but probably not this early in the season, GFS is the new King of the weenies.  Closed upper level lower and Wednesday's in-place-cold gives this threat a shred of credibility.

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The 0z NAM actually trended quite favorably for the area. As Ralph mentioned, the high retreating east is a limiting factor, but the system arriving earlier allows for a quick WAA thump before changing to rain. I think that's easily the best case scenario locally although I'd take it with a grain of salt for now. N and W suburbs, on the other hand, could face an extended period of freezing rain or sleet. 

I feel pretty good about seeing a few inches here in State College, though. 

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41 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Funny, latest guidance trending slightly more favorable for frozen. Just saw the 18z euro as well...decent shift. Enough to keep me interested anyway.

Indeed, weirder things have happen... weirder things have happened this year! Remember that overperformer in mid March last year?

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3 hours ago, LVblizzard said:

If tonight’s model runs are to be believed (minus the NAM), we are looking at a major winter storm for the interior. 3-6” plus ice on all of them.

I can see this well n and w of i95. Still think sleet could be a bigger player given Ocean temps and screaming ese low and mid level winds. Nice mid November system to shake the rust off :-)

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3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I can see this well n and w of i95. Still think sleet could be a bigger player given Ocean temps and screaming ese low and mid level winds. Nice mid November system to shake the rust off :-)

I think there will be LOTS of taint even up my way (825' elevation) and that the best snows are going to be north and west of my location and up in the Hazleton/McAdoo area northeast through the Pocono Plateau.

These are just MY thoughts, and are in no way a forecast or meant to be taken any other way scientifically...

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Was and am still very skeptical of accumulating snow S and E of a line from say Pottstown, Reading, Allentown (roughly) but NAM and Euro now in agreement for a decent front end thump to sleet to rain even down to the Del River. Hard to go against the NAM/Euro tandem (EE rule). Slowly gaining more optimism.

namconus_asnow_neus_26.png

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