NJwx85 Posted August 21, 2018 Author Share Posted August 21, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 Dropsonde from the northern eyewall. Value closest to surface is 148kts, however it doesn't say surface explicitly, so I'm going to assume its just above and something happened to it before it made splashdown. Normally it'll say (surface) in parenthesis if everything goes right. Even then, the value would almost have to be ~140kts. My guess for the 00z advisory is 140kt/928mb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 it would be a shame if a cat 5 storm never gets called that.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 Just now, nycwinter said: it would be a shame if a cat 5 storm never gets called that.. they can always bump it in reanalysis if for some reason the forecaster on duty keeps it @ 135 instead of 140 or 145 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 ADT numbers have been rather steady over the last 5hrs, so this is a bit perplexing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 Just now, Amped said: ADT numbers have been rather steady over the last 5hrs, so this is a bit perplexing. dvorak has been a joke all day. the adjustments theyve had to manually do to make it match in situ obervations have been pretty hilarious to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: I mean just look at the mean wind in the lowest 150 meters. Insane lol. Is it too much to ask for another center pass? :p I'd be surprised if it isn't upgraded in the next advisory. Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URPN12 KNHC)Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 23:21ZAgency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5306 Storm Number & Year: 14 in 2018Storm Name: Lane (flight in the Northeast Pacific basin)Mission Number: 9Observation Number: 21 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 146kts (~ 168.0mph) which was observed 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NE (38°) from the flight level center at 22:41:00Z I wish, but they've already stayed past their scheduled time and are probably running low on fuel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 21, 2018 Author Share Posted August 21, 2018 FWIW in the last half hour I’ve seen three military cargo planes heading towards PHNL and now one stealth bomber. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: FWIW in the last half hour I’ve seen three military cargo planes heading towards PHNL and now one stealth bomber. Shhh.... No you didn’t. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 pressure down to 929 mb but kept the winds at 155... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Latest advisory has Lane still at 155mph, with 929mb central pressure. Moving WNW at 10mph. Kinda surprised given that last recon pass, but oh well. 5mph isn't going to make a big difference in the impacts on Hawaii. but a cat 5 for historical reasons.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 amateur hour in honolulu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 Lots of people throwing up their arms at that call. Ya'll aren't the only ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 2 minutes ago, hlcater said: Lots of people throwing up their arms at that call. Ya'll aren't the only ones. i;m sure they do their best but the cphc is clearly inferior to the nhc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 Could be the opposite we saw with Irma or one of the Atlantic storms last year. I remember NHC seemed to be keeping it stronger than it likely was because it was near land and they maybe did not want people to think a category lower was going to make things significantly better. Here it might be they know its never going to landfall as a 3 4 or 5 so why freak people out more than they need to be several days out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 22, 2018 Author Share Posted August 22, 2018 It’s not unusual at all to not upgrade during an intermediate advisory. They should have upgraded, clearly, but they might just wait till 5:00 HST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 20 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I'll bet CPHC is a bit more used to relying on DT/ADT numbers than NHC (at least for the atlantic). ADT numbers are still ~ 130 kt, which is probably why they are staying conservative. Regardless of the official intensity, the actual intensity is what it is. Their decision is a bit questionable, but the official forecast has no impact on what the actual intensity is. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 At least we still have AVN for the Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 0Z spaghetti plots are west, however have wayyy less models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 New recon is in the air, but probably won't make it before the 03z advisory. Not that CPHC uses recon... But satellite presentation has gradually improved, perhaps that will convince them to upgrade? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 22, 2018 Author Share Posted August 22, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 22, 2018 Author Share Posted August 22, 2018 They stayed at 155MPH at the 5pm advisory. Can’t say I agree, but as others have said, it doesn’t mean anything. Hurricane warning now for the big island, and watch extended to Ohau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: They stayed at 155MPH at the 5pm advisory. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 You can tell it's a bad performance when you have to agree with the Weather Channel questioning the CPHC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 I didnt realize they're just regular WFO honolulu employees and not even tropical specialists...makes me want to pull my hair out AND empathize with them a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: The central pressure dropped around 10 mb between the 18Z and 00Z fixes, with the last eye dropsonde measuring 930 mb with 16 kt splash wind, yielding a minimum pressure estimate of 929 mb. Peak SFMR winds during this mission were 140 kt, and max flight level winds were 146 kt. Subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates range from 6.5/127 kt to 7.0/140 kt, with the latest ADT current intensity holding steady at 6.5/127 kt. Although the central pressure has dropped sharply during the last 18 hours, it is now about what one would expect for a hurricane of strong Category 4 intensity in the Central Pacific basin, and based primarily on the aircraft data the intial intensity is held at 135 kt for this advisory. umm, sorry but that's just...not sufficient... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 22, 2018 Author Share Posted August 22, 2018 I know it’s technically not their jurisdiction, but can’t NHC step in here and at least assist? Hawaii is afterall part of the US. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 they will have to revise the strength of this storm to a cat 5 in the future..after reviewing all the information.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 24 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: I didnt realize they're just regular WFO honolulu employees and not even tropical specialists...makes me want to pull my hair out AND empathize with them a little Yea they’re definitely in over their heads here. Central pacific doesn’t deal with many strong cyclones, let alone ones that pose a threat to the islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 1 minute ago, hlcater said: Yea they’re definitely in over their heads here. Central pacific doesn’t deal with many strong cyclones, let alone ones that pose a threat to the islands. And if the island containing Honolulu gets hit, who takes over then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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