weatherwiz Posted August 16, 2018 Author Share Posted August 16, 2018 24 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Time is ticking...severe season quickly coming to an end soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 16, 2018 Share Posted August 16, 2018 Waiting to see the SPC HREF, but the NAM was rather intriguing on the warm front tomorrow..even in ern MA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 16, 2018 Author Share Posted August 16, 2018 Looks like storm mode may initially be discrete across eastern NY then forming into segments. Maybe some QLCS’ tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 16, 2018 Author Share Posted August 16, 2018 Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 16, 2018 Share Posted August 16, 2018 We TOR CT W Mass tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 16, 2018 Author Share Posted August 16, 2018 GFS just as impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 16, 2018 Share Posted August 16, 2018 I'm surprised Ryan hasn't chimed in. Does look interesting tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 16, 2018 Author Share Posted August 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoth said: I'm surprised Ryan hasn't chimed in. Does look interesting tomorrow. Think he's on vacation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 16, 2018 Share Posted August 16, 2018 Is this looking like most of the past events this summer or does something higher on the Fujita scale threaten? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 16, 2018 Share Posted August 16, 2018 Some guidance has nothing. So, would keep things a bit tempered. But late aftn evening looks good in wrn areas again. Perhaps spreading east overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 16, 2018 Author Share Posted August 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Is this looking like most of the past events this summer or does something higher on the Fujita scale threaten? eh...when it comes to convection I think it is very difficult to compare events. You can compare synoptic features and upper-level patterns but that doesn't always translate to similar outcomes. With this setup we have increasing shear (though nothing overly crazy but sufficient), plenty of low-level moisture, and plenty of instability (mainly due to the presence of rich low-level moisture). Mid-level lapse rates are meh but we have a good shortwave and decent height falls. So we have pieces there it's just a matter of how do they come together? Questions also regarding cloud cover, any ongoing precip in the morning, etc also play into things. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 16, 2018 Share Posted August 16, 2018 Some storms along the warm front could become tornadic, watch out Boston in the late morning hours to early afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 16, 2018 Author Share Posted August 16, 2018 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Some guidance has nothing. So, would keep things a bit tempered. But late aftn evening looks good in wrn areas again. Perhaps spreading east overnight. what was the Euro like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 16, 2018 Share Posted August 16, 2018 22 minutes ago, Hoth said: I'm surprised Ryan hasn't chimed in. Does look interesting tomorrow. He’s in Europe on honeymoon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 16, 2018 Share Posted August 16, 2018 cumulus field is agitated and growing into towering cumulus this afternoon, isolated storms developing with a strong cap inversion allowing the isolated storms to become quite severe with high shear and high CAPE environment over Eastern SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 16, 2018 Share Posted August 16, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 16, 2018 Share Posted August 16, 2018 I believe we could see an isolated severe storm along the Eastern SNE coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 16, 2018 Share Posted August 16, 2018 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I believe we could see an isolated severe storm along the Eastern SNE coastline. You still stuck on today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 16, 2018 Share Posted August 16, 2018 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You still stuck on today? The parameters in place are quite high, can't ignore that threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 16, 2018 Author Share Posted August 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: The parameters in place are quite high, can't ignore that threat. what's the forcing mechanism? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 16, 2018 Share Posted August 16, 2018 Just now, weatherwiz said: what's the forcing mechanism? The NWS BOX office said a weak frontal boundary is sagging southward that will return northward tonight as a warm front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted August 16, 2018 Share Posted August 16, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: what's the forcing mechanism? This. The parameters were pretty good yesterday also, but... No storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 16, 2018 Share Posted August 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: what's the forcing mechanism? The is usually sufficient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 16, 2018 Share Posted August 16, 2018 We have a forcing mechanism, a weak front is moving southward, it is already by the VT/MA border settling southward with showers and heightened storm threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 16, 2018 Share Posted August 16, 2018 Boobs sag south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 16, 2018 Share Posted August 16, 2018 It's MEH today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 17, 2018 Share Posted August 17, 2018 Yeah, storms never materialized, just some brief pop up showers. Tomorrow looks very bad, tornadoes could be strong for New England standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 17, 2018 Share Posted August 17, 2018 JGW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 17, 2018 Share Posted August 17, 2018 Win some you lose some Jimmy. Heres to hoping a strong nado by cape cod standards flips your mattress, with you on it, upside down tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 17, 2018 Share Posted August 17, 2018 8 hours ago, weatherwiz said: Think he's on vacation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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