Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .

[Ginx snewx]

34 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Meh...

It's been a colder than normal April.  That's all it's been.  Sorry, not all months are above normal - 

yea NBD 3rd coldest April so far ever for current ORH site, most days with snow ever at many sites, NBD

[ORH_wxman]

This April is currently tied with 1975 for 5th coldest all time through 4/17 at ORH. Only 2007, 1972, 1943, and 1926 were colder. 2007 is actually coldest on the list but that year broke into full late spring/early summer the final 10 days of April and didn't even sniff top 10 coldest Aprils overall. The other years including 1975 all finished in the top 5 coldest...with 1972 being the coldest on record. This year is definitely a contender with the way the forecast looks.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

This April is currently tied with 1975 for 5th coldest all time through 4/17 at ORH. Only 2007, 1972, 1943, and 1926 were colder. 2007 is actually coldest on the list but that year broke into full late spring/early summer the final 10 days of April and didn't even sniff top 10 coldest Aprils overall. The other years including 1975 all finished in the top 5 coldest...with 1972 being the coldest on record. This year is definitely a contender with the way the forecast looks.

I posted that earlier, today will take 75 down at the current oBS site, comparing apples to apples

1	2007-04-17	35.5	0
2	1972-04-17	36.5	0
3	2018-04-17	36.9	0
-	1975-04-17	36.9	0
5	2003-04-17	37.6	0

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

chicken versus egg arguement

Given we have many other years with deep snowpack up there that didn't produce cold Aprils, we can be pretty sure it is not the primary driver of the cold. It is definitely a secondary enhancer though.

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

chicken versus egg arguement

Without the SSW results would have likely been way different.

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Without the SSW results would have likely been way different.

Maybe nAO has been positive all month until yesterday

[weathafella]

I remember 1975 vividly!  And Kevin don’t worry-that summer was blazing including “hot Saturday” 8/2/75.

[Damage In Tolland]

28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hmm... I don't get that impression.   My experience has been that we have had a steady diet of cold wet systems, some of which have come with some freezing/frozen contention along the way ... if not some physical expression, but by and large, this has been a cold "wet" April... not a snowy one? 

Just look at the climate majors; I guarantee that the vast majority of uptake has fallen in the form of liquid -

In your low valley locale up there north of the pike, you’ve missed the majority of the snow events. From the Pike south it has been a very snowy month iron clad

[Typhoon Tip]

I wasn't around in 1975 ... I suppose I could go look it up at NCEP weather maps library ... but, was that just a Saturday deal ... as in  'one day' of giant heat ?  Was that during a heat wave ? 

[mreaves]

42 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

BTV forecasters still on board with snow. These guys have the best AFDs.  Need Legro to discuss golfing now.

 

Thinking best chance for accumulating wet snow will be above 2000 feet on Thursday with several inches anticipated. Thinking as 925mb temps drop btwn -2c and -4c by 00z Friday snow levels will lower to 1200 feet or so by sunset on Thursday. Have once again trended cooler than guidance for Thursday with highs near freezing mountain towns to lower 40s warmer valleys. Current snow depth atop Mt Mansfield is 90 inches, thinking by Friday we have a good chance to hit 100 inches again, which should provide excellent late season skiing and riding conditions for people like myself looking to earn their turns. &&

Probably not any time soon 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

In your low valley locale up there north of the pike, you’ve missed the majority of the snow events. From the Pike south it has been a very snowy month iron clad

Dude, go look at the numbers .. more of your 'in bucket' has come in liquid.  

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I wasn't around in 1975 ... I suppose I could go look it up at NCEP weather maps library ... but, was that just a Saturday deal ... as in  'one day' of giant heat ?  Was that during a heat wave ? 

heat wave

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Dude, go look at the numbers .. more of your 'in bucket' has come in liquid.  

well duh when you have over 3 inches of rain from one storm, point is days with snow and temps, sorry its been a top 5 coldest and top snowiest number of days down here

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Dude, go look at the numbers .. more of your 'in bucket' has come in liquid.  

Its def been more of the frequency of seeing flakes this month versus any particular memorable storms. We've had a lot of days of snow in the air. Prob will finish with double digits days recording snow. But yeah, the actual totals for most of the area are not all that impressive given that we've had so many days of snow. Southern half of CT/RI is the exception when they got that stripe of 6 inches (and its already a lot harder for them to snow in April versus N CT and most of MA), but the rest of us including Kevin's area are above average for snow, but not top 10th percentile or anything. Maybe that changes if tomorrow surprises with 3 inches of paste.

[Ginx snewx]

11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I remember 1975 vividly!  And Kevin don’t worry-that summer was blazing including “hot Saturday” 8/2/75.

Best summer of my life, lifeguard in Misquamicut, packed day after day with young ladies. They left the beaches open all night that Saturday, Muddy Waters playing in one bar J Geils in another, drinking age was 18

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Its def been more of the frequency of seeing flakes this month versus any particular memorable storms. We've had a lot of days of snow in the air. Prob will finish with double digits days recording snow. But yeah, the actual totals for most of the area are not all that impressive given that we've had so many days of snow. Southern half of CT/RI is the exception when they got that stripe of 6 inches (and its already a lot harder for them to snow in April versus N CT and most of MA), but the rest of us including Kevin's area are above average for snow, but not top 10th percentile or anything. Maybe that changes if tomorrow surprises with 3 inches of paste.

Nearest COOP to Kevin is Storrs, top 2 

1	1996-04-17	15.0	0
2	2018-04-17	11.5	0
3	1982-04-17	9.0	0
4	2016-04-17	7.3	0
5	1958-04-17	7.0	0

 

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Its def been more of the frequency of seeing flakes this month versus any particular memorable storms. We've had a lot of days of snow in the air. Prob will finish with double digits days recording snow. But yeah, the actual totals for most of the area are not all that impressive given that we've had so many days of snow. Southern half of CT/RI is the exception when they got that stripe of 6 inches (and its already a lot harder for them to snow in April versus N CT and most of MA), but the rest of us including Kevin's area are above average for snow, but not top 10th percentile or anything. Maybe that changes if tomorrow surprises with 3 inches of paste.

Don't give him a rational bases from which to formulate a comeback - I'm trying to get some ball bustin' in before I go suffer in a f'n dental chair   

I am teasin' a little... I mean at 4- 8" of snow on the month for the state depending, it's above normal snow - so, in any objective vs subjective fairness, it's technically snowy April by that metric alone. Agreed.  

However, there is some truth to this month leaving a lot on the field (sport metaphor)...  We've had much snowier Aprils with warmer monthly temperature means...  I just want the month to be more honestly characterized as the azzholiness p.o.s. month it really has been, rather than spinning and dressing it up as being forgivable because of those 6" of lousy reach-around antics.  

No, this has been a cold wet month of useless time wasted to schit weather, and if there is/or has been some snow along the way ... that's more like a schit-eating grin.   Ha ha

[Damage In Tolland]

22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Dude, go look at the numbers .. more of your 'in bucket' has come in liquid.  

Dude the amount of snow / frozen events far surpasses the 1-2 rain events this month. We iron clad it

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Nearest COOP to Kevin is Storrs, top 2 

1	1996-04-17	15.0	0
2	2018-04-17	11.5	0
3	1982-04-17	9.0	0
4	2016-04-17	7.3	0
5	1958-04-17	7.0	0

 

Staffordville is closer 

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Staffordville is closer 

small sample 2007

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Staffordville is closer 

Still less than 2016 in Staffordville. Your area definitely had more than this year in 1997, 1996, 1987, 1982 and prob 1970 and 1971.

 

It's def still been a cold and snowy month...amazing the number of days. But we haven't had that big storm. That would have turned this month into epic.

[educate]

35 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I wasn't around in 1975 ... I suppose I could go look it up at NCEP weather maps library ... but, was that just a Saturday deal ... as in  'one day' of giant heat ?  Was that during a heat wave ? 

I lived in ny but was getting my meteorology degree from what was then Lowell Tech(pre-merger). Drove up to Mass that day in a Datsun hummingbee to visit my roommate on Plum Island. It was, without a doubt, the hottest drive I have ever taken. My other takeaway that day was doing the "bump" all night long at a local disco.

[Typhoon Tip]

18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Dude the amount of snow / frozen events far surpasses the 1-2 rain events this month. We iron clad it

Too superficial.  

Youre talkin about occurrence.  

I'm suggesting an ' amount' as a more realistic metric. 

But was also given ya schit.

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, educate said:

I lived in ny but was getting my meteorology degree from what was then Lowell Tech(pre-merger). Drove up to Mass that day in a Datsun hummingbee to visit my roommate on Plum Island. It was, without a doubt, the hottest drive I have ever taken. My other takeaway that day was doing the "bump" all night long at a local disco.

Omg ha ha. Never thought I'd ever hear the word Datsun uttered in passing again.  Yeah-ha ... can't imagine that ride with the high tech a.c. built into the consoles of those tin cans on wheels of the day. The only thing missing from that scene is the occasional blue smoke rollin out of the exhaust pipe and a chili stained Dairy Queen  hot dog wrapper crumpled up in the footwell.  

[weathafella]

I believe ACK reached 100 on hot Saturday 1975.

[ORH_wxman]

Aug 1975 wasn't even an above avg temp month at ORH and BDL....it had that epic 3 days to start the month and then the rest of the month was largely below normal which was able to wipe out all the positive departures and then some. BOS was able to hang onto slightly positive departure for the month.

 

July 1975 was actually a pretty warm/summary month but didn't have the signature heat wave that Aug 1975 had.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

I believe ACK reached 100 on hot Saturday 1975.

Flawless trajectory for that to happen.  There's probably like 2 .. maybe 3 degrees around the dial tops of tolerance and that would have tainted

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Flawless trajectory for that to happen.  There's probably like 2 .. maybe 3 degrees around the dial tops of tolerance and that would have tainted

Interesting factoid I recall about the ACK readings during that heat wave....I think they recorded a 100F and a 98F on back to back days. The next warmest reading ever recorded at ACK is something like 91F. That should tell you a lot about where on the tail of distributions that 1975 heat wave was.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Interesting factoid I recall about the ACK readings during that heat wave....I think they recorded a 100F and a 98F on back to back days. The next warmest reading ever recorded at ACK is something like 91F. That should tell you a lot about where on the tail of distributions that 1975 heat wave was.

Can we get the pressure level products I wonder.  850s 800 etc

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Can we get the pressure level products I wonder.  850s 800 etc

Date:0000Z  3 AUG 75
Station: KPWM
WMO ident:  72606
Latitude:   43.65
Longitude: -70.32
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SFC 1006    27  33.2  21.2  49 12.0  24.5 270   6 305.8 308.8 297.4 353.6 15.95
  1 1000    81  33.6  18.6  41 15.0  23.0 270   8 306.8 309.3 296.1 347.7 13.61
  2  950   543  32.2  11.2  28 21.0  18.5 276   7 309.9 311.5 293.6 336.9  8.82
  3  936   677  31.6   8.6  24 23.0  17.1 278   7 310.6 312.0 292.7 333.7  7.51
  4  900  1027  28.0  11.0  35 17.0  17.0 283   7 310.4 312.1 294.0 338.6  9.19
  5  850  1529  22.8  11.8  50 11.0  15.5 290   6 310.0 312.0 294.7 341.5 10.28
  6  800  2052  18.2   9.2  56  9.0  12.5 296   8 310.5 312.3 294.0 338.7  9.17
  7  774  2334  15.6   7.6  59  8.0  10.7 300   9 310.7 312.3 293.5 336.8  8.49
  8  759  2500  16.0  -7.0  20 23.0   5.0 302  10 312.9 313.4 289.5 322.4  2.98
  9  750  2601  15.2  -7.8  20 23.0   4.4 303  11 313.1 313.6 289.4 322.2  2.83
 10  700  3181  10.4  -9.6  23 20.0   1.5 310  13 314.0 314.5 289.5 322.6  2.63
 11  650  3790   5.6 -12.4  26 18.0  -1.8 310  12 315.3 315.7 289.6 322.7  2.27
 12  600  4436   0.4 -15.6  29 16.0  -5.5 310  12 316.6 316.9 289.6 322.9  1.89
 13  588  4597  -1.1 -16.1  31 15.0  -6.5 310  11 316.7 317.0 289.6 322.8  1.85
 14  562  4955  -3.3 -22.3  21 19.0  -9.2 310  11 318.2 318.4 289.4 322.1  1.14
 15  550  5126  -4.1 -23.1  21 19.0  -9.8 310  11 319.2 319.4 289.6 323.0  1.08
 16  500  5870  -7.9 -26.9  20 19.0 -13.0 310  10 323.4 323.6 290.7 326.4  0.84
 17  450  6682 -13.3 -31.3  20 18.0 -17.3 310  17 326.5 326.6 291.4 328.8  0.62
 18  400  7570 -19.7 -36.7  21 17.0 -22.7 310  25 329.4 329.5 292.0 330.9  0.41
 19  392  7719 -20.9 -30.9  40 10.0 -22.9 312  26 329.7 329.9 292.4 332.4  0.74
 20  375  8045 -23.1 -38.1  24 15.0 -25.5 316  28 331.0 331.1 292.4 332.5  0.38
 21  363  8281 -25.1 -35.1  39 10.0 -26.8 318  29 331.4 331.5 292.6 333.4  0.53
 22  350  8545 -26.7 -31.6  63  4.9 -27.6 322  31 332.8 332.9 293.2 335.6  0.78
 23  348  8586 -26.9 -31.0  68  4.1 -27.7 322  31 333.0 333.2 293.3 336.1  0.83
 24  331  8945 -28.7 -37.7  42  9.0 -30.0 326  33 335.4 335.5 293.6 337.1  0.45
 25  300  9640 -34.3 -41.3  49  7.0 -35.1 335  37 337.0 337.1 293.9 338.4  0.34