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nrgjeff

Spring and Summer Banter 2018

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Time to start the warm season banter thread. Before Final Four talk, I want to write the following weenie post. Can we lock in the 11Z HRRR? Late afternoon LEWP for Chattanooga!

11Z_HRRR.PNG.caa77a5778ce40ae21ec57437f459132.PNG

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On 3/29/2018 at 8:39 AM, nrgjeff said:

Time to start the warm season banter thread. Before Final Four talk, I want to write the following weenie post. Can we lock in the 11Z HRRR? Late afternoon LEWP for Chattanooga!

11Z_HRRR.PNG.caa77a5778ce40ae21ec57437f459132.PNG

No one likes warm weather here.We had a severe t-storm warning here first time in about six months.Unusual we didn't have severe systems come through even in the winter here.But anyways the best lightning i've seen in months .Knocked our power off for a few seconds,not use to thunder but i know it scared the P out of me..lol

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Michigan fans are the worst. They were total jerks in Atlanta (Final Four). Syracuse fans are great though. Anyway I have to cheer for Villanova tonight. Nova's Coach Wright gave words of encouragement to KU's Devonte Graham after the game, very classy. Game should be high scoring and entertaining. 

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My goal is to ignore the possibility for snow this weekend until the models (hopefully) lose it and we wind up with cold rain. Why, you ask? Because my fiancee would **** a brick at the thought of snow falling two Saturdays prior to wedding day. :yikes:

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 Euro weeklies :weep:

Perfect timing for my camping trip to the Southwest...as expected. Been watching the CFS weeklies (all I have access to) and currently am glad I delayed the camping trip this year since I think hope the later it is, the harder it gets for a 500mb trough to have as much of an effect on sensible weather.  Slowly but surely, run after run, that trough is settling in to the southwest for early to mid May. Was really hoping we'd get a pattern flip and a ridge here for a few weeks and then another adjustment towards mid-May, so I wouldn't have to deal with bowling balls there, but alas its looking like a quick relax and then the same old, same old, only to finally flip when I head out there.  Jeff should be happy though, since my trip may mean plains severe.

At least the low height anomalies in the SW aren't as gruesome as they looked this time last year. Maybe...they wont trend deeper... :unsure:

Even though it may mean bad news for me, still appreciate the Euro weeklies update Carvers. No sarcasm intended, I really do mean it. I'd rather know and be prepared. 

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10 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

 Euro weeklies :weep:

Perfect timing for my camping trip to the Southwest...as expected. Been watching the CFS weeklies (all I have access to) and currently am glad I delayed the camping trip this year since I think hope the later it is, the harder it gets for a 500mb trough to have as much of an effect on sensible weather.  Slowly but surely, run after run, that trough is settling in to the southwest for early to mid May. Was really hoping we'd get a pattern flip and a ridge here for a few weeks and then another adjustment towards mid-May, so I wouldn't have to deal with bowling balls there, but alas its looking like a quick relax and then the same old, same old, only to finally flip when I head out there.  Jeff should be happy though, since my trip may mean plains severe.

At least the low height anomalies in the SW aren't as gruesome as they looked this time last year. Maybe...they wont trend deeper... :unsure:

Even though it may mean bad news for me, still appreciate the Euro weeklies update Carvers. No sarcasm intended, I really do mean it. I'd rather know and be prepared. 

Not sure the trough actually goes into the Southwest.   More like the trough retreats to over the HB and a broad ridges builds underneath it.  At that range, it could easily change.   Weeks 5-6.5(on the Weeklies) are really just bonus clues.  Precip looks normal for the four corners during mid-May.  Might actually be a pattern where much of the US turns warm w seasonal temps and precip in the Southwest.  @nrgjeff can likely clear that up.

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1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

@jaxjagman.  Thanks for the heads-up regarding that thread.  I reported it...not sure if that will help.  I recommend others do so as well....just don't click the link.

edit:  Thread is gone!  Thank you!

I reported it also.It was malware, trying to get your credit card info.Glad the post is gone as well.

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Weeklies don't commit to much weeks 4-6, but maybe the SSW hangover will end sometime in May. @Holston_River_Rambler and @Carvers Gap I think you got a handle on it. Sorry I was out of town a few days for a mix of learning and leisure. 

If a big system develops, like with any time of year, weeklies would probably not show a strong signal until it's within 3 weeks. I look for a few passing troughs everywhere in May - more progressive pattern. Might be mean ridge west mean trough east, but nothing like the lock-in attm. Progressive pattern would be more variable. 

In another thread @John1122 noted the Winter that could have been, except for the January drought. I concur. And we dreadfully wasted a late timed SSW!

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FEDEX is warning me that they are "closely monitoring the Winter Storms across portions of the US". I've seen this before when they were about to delay a package, but at least then there was a significant winter storm to monitor. As of my typing this there are WWAs for portions of the Uinta mountains and the Bitter Roots as well as a few WSW for slivers of Wyoming.  I really can't find these dire storms anywhere :lol:

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I am reading about all kinds of trucking and shipping capacity shortages. Judging by I-24, all trucks are currently in use, lol! Fed Ex does not want to let shareholders know they botched the demand forecast, so they play the weather card. Predictable! Still, it's a good problem to have if in the business.

My I-24 ground truth index also calls for stocks to recover later this year. Must get over the 10-yr interest rate tantrum first. I-24 tells me economic activity is vibrant. Earnings are strong too.

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GFS and its Parallel are simply useless! Next week they have anything from a landfalling hurricane to a 1030 high diving out of Canada. I will exclusively use the Euro/ECMWF models for a while. They show some instability and perhaps showers and t-storms next week. Thankfully US high-res modelling continues to impress. Still I cannot fathom the awful GFS!

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A minor nitpick:  Sometimes the Nashville office has an annoying practice of refusing to update their forecast page to add a chance of rain once showers or even storms pop up they hadn't predicted.  I went to bed last night as scattered popcorns had developed and in KY and were crossing SE into TN west of Clarksville (where the border jumps north along the Tenn River).  Yet the rain chances stayed 20% in KY and 0% a mile away in TN,  nothing mentioned in the discussion, either.  Seemed likely they would continue for a while since they were slowly growing in coverage.  Sure enough I awoke in the middle of the night to rain here in Nashville, and when I got up there was a line of scattered rain to our Southeast, another to our northwest that will get here mid-morning, and a few more popcorns in between.  Yet nothing changed on the webpage, still "Mostly sunny, 20% after 1pm."

So is it just laziness or is pride the reason they never updated to add in a 20% or 10%?  I've noticed this several times before, seems to be a pattern for some regional offices, while others are much better at updating.  This time it occurred across 2 shifts, so not just an individual issue. 

It's not the end of the world, but it is a little thing that people notice and can reinforce the false stereotype that forecasters are often wrong.  (The truth being that it is amazing how accurate weather forecasting has become in my lifetime.)

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Agree improvements in human forecasts and NWP are impressive. I remember not trusting the 48 hour ETA. Now mid-range forecasts are as good as 36-hour forecasts 20 years ago. I remember laughing at simulated radar. Now CAMs are pretty good with synoptic events. Still need a human for meso-scale details. Hurricane improvement is simply amazing!

All that said, humans can still be stubborn and full of pride. Yesterday my neighbor slammed the door in the face of a political campaign helper, kind of sad really. I talked to them because I'm genuinely interested, even if we don't really agree, and my vote is not set until election day. No policy per forum rules, but I think the story is OK in Banter.

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ECMWF wants to put a tropical low over CHA at hour 240. I doubt it. However I am always looking for conventional storm chase opportunities. If a northern stream trough brings just 30 knots of upper wind and a tropical entity can get the 850 mb LLJ going at the same time, I'll take it!

TGIF

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