March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[wxsniss]

12z RGEM coming in further northwest !!!

[wxsniss]

12z RGEM big hit eastern SNE!

6z run was just a dry burp

[WintersComing]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

So I'm head scratching a bit at why this isn't more proficiently phasing.  The above explanation ... re the convective sequencing possibly lowering height S of NS too prodigiously ...  however more like science fiction it may ultimately prove to be ... is the best explanation I can see (for now, always open to other's ideas..). The idea there is that it is 'drawing' the mid level support up that way ...effectively shearing the system apart just as the N/stream is about to  capture.  It may happen that - ..okay 

The ridge in the west is quintessentially placed, related to ... the nosing N/stream's dive is spot on the correct tact... while the S/stream impulse is nearly or at perfection for cylconic orientation/motion relative to  - ...yet, the models just keep spitting the low out E of in mid to late innings.  fascinating... 

Is a very interesting point as to why no phase when models seem to be showing all the pieces in the right places!!

[JBinStoughton]

Just now, WintersComing said:

Is a very interesting point as to why no phase when models seem to be showing all the pieces in the right places!!

Let’s hope they’re missing some key interactions rather than we’re missing it lol

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

12z RGEM coming in further northwest !!!

Welcome to 15 mins ago.

[WintersComing]

2 minutes ago, JBinStoughton said:

Let’s hope they’re missing some key interactions rather than we’re missing it lol

Dunno but you would think that models would have picked up on it by now if it was gonna happen.

[wxsniss]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Welcome to 15 mins ago.

LOL

phone analysis during bathroom break FTL, missed the entire last page of posts... was wondering why I was the only one excited

As unreliable as the RGEM has become, great to see it join the party

[CoastalWx]

Kevin would like that. Feathers in his fanny on the RGEM. You can hear the giggles if you listen closely.

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

LOL

phone analysis during bathroom break FTL, missed the entire last page of posts... was wondering why I was the only one excited

As unreliable as the RGEM has become, great to see it join the party

It’s amazing how often weenies move their bowels in the run up to a storm.

[Ginx snewx]

NAM Bufkit cobb method, you ready for this! ORH 21.9 BED 29.7 BDL 14.1 HYA 17.8 BOS 27.6 PVD 23.6 CEF 16.0 CON 27.3 RUM 34.2 PSM 30.4 ORE 18.2 MPV 23.8 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

NAM Bufkit cobb method, you ready for this! ORH 21.9 BED 29.7 BDL 14.1 HYA 17.8 BOS 27.6 PVD 23.6 CEF 16.0 CON 27.3 RUM 34.2 PSM 30.4 ORE 18.2 MPV 23.8 

Corn on the cobb or corn in the crap? We shall see.

[dryslot]

12z GFS looks to keep the 12z runs going, Looks to be NW a tic or two

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Kevin would like that. Feathers in his fanny on the RGEM. You can hear the giggles if you listen closely.

We don’t use Reggie anymore . Nam tickles the pickle 

[WintersComing]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

NAM Bufkit cobb method, you ready for this! ORH 21.9 BED 29.7 BDL 14.1 HYA 17.8 BOS 27.6 PVD 23.6 CEF 16.0 CON 27.3 RUM 34.2 PSM 30.4 ORE 18.2 MPV 23.8 

As seems typical this season....this will either be an epic win or failure for the NAM.

[JBinStoughton]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It’s amazing how often weenies move their bowels in the run up to a storm.

Funny how a big hit and a last minute miss can both have that effect 

[WintersComing]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

12z GFS looks to keep the 12z runs going, Looks to be NW a tic or two

Just need one of these models to phase these two things and then we all get invitations to the party!

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Corn on the cobb or corn in the crap? We shall see.

34.5" here, I'll eat my monitor if that verifys.

[WintersComing]

GFS is definitely stronger by hr 18

[CoastalWx]

GFS is NW through hr 24.

[weathafella]

GFS on the eastern end of the posts still 

[JBinStoughton]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

GFS on the eastern end of the posts still 

Shootin’ straight out.  Ugh

[dryslot]

966mb and paltry qpf.............lol

[WintersComing]

Closes off H5 much closer this run.

[weathafella]

QPF definitely moved NW

[WintersComing]

Its like there is a swirling mess just near the BM and then wants to kick east

[CoastalWx]

Pretty large DGZ and good lift too.

[JBinStoughton]

Just now, WintersComing said:

Its like there is a swirling mess just near the BM and then wants to kick east

Convective feedback? 

[weathafella]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Pretty large DGZ and good lift too.

Where?

[tavwtby]

Maybe the phasing isn't being modeled correct because the stregnth of the southern stream is too much?

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Pretty large DGZ and good lift too.

Just when the last storm didn't maybe perform to your standards, you are in line to get crushed with this one.