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MAG5035

Central PA - March 2018

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Just now, CarlislePaWx said:

The NAM isn't out to the storm's timeframe yet.  What are you talking about?

I am talking about the GFS and EURO both south the last couple of runs. That’s all I want this storm to happen but trends haven’t been favorable and maybe that’s a good thing.

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1 minute ago, paweather said:

I am talking about the GFS and EURO both south the last couple of runs. That’s all I want this storm to happen but trends haven’t been favorable and maybe that’s a good thing.

Seriously...have you read through the last few pages in here?  The NAM has consistently dumped over 6" on MDT.  Look at the GEFS ensembles snowfall map that was posted a few hours ago.  It's got you between 6 and 7" for the event.

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Just now, CarlislePaWx said:

Seriously...have you read through the last few pages in here?  The NAM has consistently dumped over 6" on MDT.  Look at the GEFS ensembles snowfall map that was posted a few hours ago.  It's got you between 6 and 7" for the event.

In his defense many of the models have trended south over the past 24 hours though.

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1 minute ago, maytownpawx said:

I think some of our frustration is showing too. It admittedly got to me earlier today as well.

The timing of his comment, with less than 15 minutes to go to see the 0Z NAM output was what I couldn't figure out.  I couldn't determine if his comments were directly related to 0Z output or not.  I didn't mean to sound judgmental about it, though.  It just took me by surprise.  Sorry, paweather.  I know we're all a bit on edge, but there's no reason for those of us in the immediate MDT area and points south to be giving up yet by any stretch.  There's still 48 hours more to go before the event gets underway.

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Just now, CarlislePaWx said:

The timing of his comment, with less than 15 minutes to go to see the 0Z NAM output was what I couldn't figure out.  I couldn't determine if his comments were directly related to 0Z output or not.  I didn't mean to sound judgmental about it, though.  It just took me by surprise.  Sorry, paweather.  I know we're all a bit on edge, but there's no reason for those of us in the immediate MDT area and points south to be giving up yet by any stretch.  There's still 48 hours more to go before the event gets underway.

I totally agree with you, and that was my thought as well. After thinking about it I saw his point, timing of it aside. 

Look, one thing about this winter that has been tough for us is that it's been a winter of multiple big storms. And at one time or another just about all of them were modeled to hit us at some point, only to have the rug pulled out from under us. Today it started to appear like it was happening again. Along with that came rising frustration. We'll see what happens but let's all do what we do best which is get along like family.

That is...if your family gets along well. :)

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3 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

The timing of his comment, with less than 15 minutes to go to see the 0Z NAM output was what I couldn't figure out.  I couldn't determine if his comments were directly related to 0Z output or not.  I didn't mean to sound judgmental about it, though.  It just took me by surprise.  Sorry, paweather.  I know we're all a bit on edge, but there's no reason for those of us in the immediate MDT area and points south to be giving up yet by any stretch.  There's still 48 hours more to go before the event gets underway.

I’m with you believe me but it’s just the GFS and EURO trended south today no wrong intent at all. I truly hope we get NAM’ed. 

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Just now, paweather said:

I’m with you believe me but it’s just the GFS and EURO trended south today no wrong intent at all. I truly hope we get NAM’ed. 

Sounds like the NAM might be coming north...like maybe WAY north. 

You watch...Horst will end up being right and we'll be congratulating the northern tier tomorrow instead of DC. 

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Ok, still looking good for us near MDT and south.  The NAM is doing something very weird, it looks like after our accumulations are over there's a second wave that brings additional accumulations to Virginia.  You have to look at the panels between 66 and 84 and watch how the snow accumulates.

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8 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Ok, still looking good for us near MDT and south.  The NAM is doing something very weird, it looks like after our accumulations are over there's a second wave that brings additional accumulations to Virginia.  You have to look at the panels between 66 and 84 and watch how the snow accumulates.

Yes, the 0z NAM actually went north about 20 miles with the overall snow line in PA, with the best snow between the PA turnpike to about I -70 in MD. It gets 5 inches to the Harrisburg area.

The second trailing storm potential a few hours later is what could make this a memorable storm. If that develops & stalls along the VA Capes, we could approach those prolific snow amounts that the GFS & Euro were showing a few days ago.

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22 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes, the 0z NAM actually went north about 20 miles with the overall snow line in PA, with the best snow between the PA turnpike to about I -70 in MD. It gets 5 inches to the Harrisburg area.

The second trailing storm potential a few hours later is what could make this a memorable storm. If that develops & stalls along the VA Capes, we could approach those prolific snow amounts that the GFS & Euro were showing a few days ago.

I don’t know what you are seeing but hope your correct. 

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1 hour ago, paweather said:

Model trends and just what we have been through this winter, you don’t agree? 

I get you bud and can’t argue as seasonal progression has you more right than wrong. The thing that is diff is that we now are playing with a -NAO which is an ace to me so the cards are a little different as I’m seeing a hi pair at minimum. 

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The 0z Canadian run just showed exactly what this storm is capable of producing.

The GFS & Euro were showing this look a couple of days ago. Some of the EPS & GEFS individual members were showing it earlier today as well. Hopefully the Euro & UKMET join the party soon!

5CF98010-46D7-4A43-AEE7-9B9F5CDC542E.png

BCAB5460-E868-4635-9DF1-E6D1A9ABAC1A.png

38142D33-AF52-42BB-97AB-68E9358BA5D1.png

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9 minutes ago, anotherman said:

The CMC is a Stone cold mauling.5a946df323c49fe3d19eccc03a6502a5.jpg

Dang!  2-foot bulls eye IMBY on the GEM.  Oh to bring back the memories of Jan 2016.  I can go to bed now with this image in my mind.

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If the CMC is correct, I'll end up stranded somewhere after being out for 15 days already. You all are hoping for a blizzard, but it's downright dangerous for me driving this thing. I wouldn't be so against it if I were already home, but my delivery appointment coincides perfectly with this storm... 

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2 hours ago, Flatheadsickness said:

That there computer is smoking crack rocks. But that would sweet for some bitter for others.  

yeah but did you see the "dry slot" working in for Lanco....

hahahahaha.....

todays the big day.  Its make or break.  CMC showed the potential for this setup....now we need the GFS to jump on board.  6z was better but not there yet.  ICON meh (looking for continuty's sake)

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1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

yeah but did you see the "dry slot" working in for Lanco....

hahahahaha.....

todays the big day.  Its make or break.  CMC showed the potential for this setup....now we need the GFS to jump on board.  6z was better but not there yet.  ICON meh (looking for continuty's sake)

I am all in on the CMC just laid my chips down :) 

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The latest EPS & GEFS keep the LSV in the game. This is yet another complicated multiple part storm. If the pieces phase together just right, we get the Canadian solution last night. Let’s hope we get good model runs today !

 

A38AEC8F-814F-40D0-81D0-197500C6FC1C.png

A0A4F89A-8A52-4DF9-BCBE-CD92A62434B4.png

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28 minutes ago, paweather said:

I am all in on the CMC just laid my chips down :) 

Whatchu got to lose man??  Throw em down n let r roll. It’s not an impossible solution to me. Todays runs should clear up spacing issues and let us know what LP wins the battle. 

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16 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

@Blizzard of 93 wouldn’t it be nice to just have 1 piece to follow? Smh. These multipart deals are just killin us.

What a challenging winter it has been. 

Yes, I agree 100 % !

It would nice to just have a low coming out of the 4 corners area of the southwest that travels to Texas , picks up gulf moisture & then heads to the Carolina coast & then comes up to the mouth of the Delaware Bay. Of course with a good High parked over Quebec !

Ok, back to reality !

Maybe 1 time this year, complicated will work out for us !

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