dryslot Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, WinterWolf said: Does it follow the Ukie....Perhaps??? Usually, But not always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 9, 2018 Author Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: Its been looking more like more of a Tuesday the last few runs. Agreed. Since about 12z yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Agreed. Since about 12z yesterday. Yes, Plenty of time left, That's why no one should bail on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Euro ridge out west better? at 48hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said: Euro ridge out west better? at 48hrs? I think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 This should be a better euro run then 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Although last event it wasn't locked in until the last 48 hours, maybe 36 hours. 17 minutes ago, dryslot said: There is one model we REALLY need to look better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: This should be a better euro run then 0z. yeah, big differences from 0z at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Hmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, Bostonseminole said: yeah, big differences from 0z at the surface And H5, That northern stream s/w is further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 That ridge out west is text book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: Hmmm. Don’t hmm us. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 This run will be an improvement... not sure it’ll be enough to get it done though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Not quite enough this run (I don't think...still at 78 hours), but that is a really big improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 May not quite do it this run but its getting better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 It's getting there. Needs a little more work with the srn stream outrunning, but not far from something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Note how the N stream is west and it's allowing the southern stream to try and curl up the east side of it....that is kind of a classic look in past biggies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Liking what I hear from the pbp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Note how the N stream is west and it's allowing the southern stream to try and curl up the east side of it....that is kind of a classic look in past biggies. Yes it is, I like that it has shifted further west, Ridge out west was better too, You could see it early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Note how the N stream is west and it's allowing the southern stream to try and curl up the east side of it....that is kind of a classic look in past biggies. A trend? Let’s hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 It is better... but still not enough. I like the steps though.. hopefully that is real and we can improve further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 We are getting snow into SE areas this run, You get one more shift of this same magnitude on the Euro and its game on, That's even snow here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Oh boy oh boy oh boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Yeah it's actually a 1-3 incher for most of eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 And more DE Maine, Maybe high end advisory to warning snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 How big of a shift from 00z? 50-100 miles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 When looking at the upper air maps between the Ukie and Euro....Ukie has the northern stream a solid 100-150 miles W of the euro at 72 hours over Lake Superior. That northern stream shortwave is currently just south of Alaska....it then takes a lonely journey over the Yukon and NW Territories before finally emerging over north Manitoba at the 48 hour mark at 12z Sunday....so this one could have some wrinkles given the path it takes. Maybe Chris has some insight on the sensitivity data...obviously the ridge out west is an important factor....perhaps more important than the northern stream shortwave itself. But don't be surprised if models don't handle this well because of how sparse the region is that the northern stream is navigating over the next 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, rnaude241 said: How big of a shift from 00z? 50-100 miles? The precip shield probably jumped 200 miles NW from the 00z run looking at 96 vs 108....but this was caused by a mere 75 miles or so shift in the northern stream being west of 00z at 72 hours....so the changes early on get amplified later on the ground. I would say the ridge out west wasn't even quite as good as the 00z run so the position of the northern stream on this run is what was doing the leg work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Oh crap, That's more qpf then i thought, That's like .50" back here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Oh boy oh boy oh boy Always a great sign when I open the thread to this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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