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February is upon us - pattern change is in order

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

NBD but to say this is Pfs is just ignoring Meteorology. Small overrunning situation could dump a couple of inches somewhere in SNE with some getting scalped.

It's come around to your thinking, I'll admit.  Looked like **** yesterday.

Still does in the grand scheme of impacts.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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10 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

It's come around to your thinking, I'll admit.  Looked like **** yesterday.

Still does in the grand scheme of impacts.

Could be a nasty commute North of the pike, and maybe south of 84 too? Those skinny bald guys with their arms out the truck singing Miley Cyrus at the top of their lungs tomorrow, might want to bring gloves to work Thursday

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Best chance is prob pike region northward for Thursday afternoon/night...but even that is a bit iffy

 

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Discounting the Euro, EPS and GFS for Thursday for the other area of SNE, Mass?

Did you miss the part of my post I quoted above? 

Butnother than that I'm pretty bearish on SNE snow through Monday. Friday night/Saturday is cooked....Sunday night/Monday still has a shot but not favoring it at the moment. We will see if t comes in colder over the next 24-36 hours. It is definitely possible. But it's fighting a monster SE ridge. 

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jbenedet

jbenedet

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This Sunday event is going to be interesting one way or another. The shortwave wants to go ape**** over the Central Plains but you can see some really deep cold creeping south out of SE Canada by 0z Sunday. I think this is a case of a battle of the titans setting up again, and big time cold tuck incoming. 

969 mb over the Dakotas is probably the most amped up this thing can get, and with that we still see 2m temps north of the pike on the GFS—which are undoubtedly too high—are still socked in the 30’s.

I may have been wrong about the 12z GGEM outcome for this. Excluding sensible weather impacts it seems to me either we get something really amped up similar to the 18z GFS or she slides underneath like the 12z GGEM. Either way Canada will be open for business so I think wintry potential is there but the latter scenario carries the greatest opportunity for a broader area...

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Did you miss the part of my post I quoted above? 

Butnother than that I'm pretty bearish on SNE snow through Monday. Friday night/Saturday is cooked....Sunday night/Monday still has a shot but not favoring it at the moment. We will see if t comes in colder over the next 24-36 hours. It is definitely possible. But it's fighting a monster SE ridge. 

Somehow this fairly benign hp in NE Canada is going to overcome a record breaking SE ridge ever in winter and bring snow/ice to all of SNE. It’ll be fun bumping tomorrow. There’s 4-5 posters 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Somehow this fairly benign hp in NE Canada is going to overcome a record breaking SE ridge ever in winter and bring snow/ice to all of SNE. It’ll be fun bumping tomorrow. There’s 4-5 posters 

There could def be some snow Thursday. But there's an elevated warm layer that could be an issue so I'm not jumping on the 2-4" train yet that some of the clown maps try to show. 

Im less bullish on the two systems after that. Sunday night has best shot but it looks way better for places like interior Maine to dendrite maybe. 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

There could def be some snow Thursday. But there's an elevated warm layer that could be an issue so I'm not jumping on the 2-4" train yet that some of the clown maps try to show. 

Im less bullish on the two systems after that. Sunday night has best shot but it looks way better for places like interior Maine to dendrite maybe. 

Kev has his days mixed up again, the butterfly Sultan of Dews is about to emerge from his cocoon for his Morch

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There could def be some snow Thursday. But there's an elevated warm layer that could be an issue so I'm not jumping on the 2-4" train yet that some of the clown maps try to show. 

Im less bullish on the two systems after that. Sunday night has best shot but it looks way better for places like interior Maine to dendrite maybe. 

Nobody here was talking about Sunday Mon being snow in SNE other than Kev 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
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There is definitely going to be a narrow band of f-gen between the impinging high and the big SE ridge Thursday. There won't be overwhelming forcing for ascent that would lead to a lot of precip over the cold dome, but enough for some precip. Models will struggle with positioning, it being so narrow, so no reason not to keep an eye on it for a wintry appeal. 

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